Analysing The Top 8

[Blair]

No question it's the best since Ivan left, 2018 we made finals but we were a pretender...although incredibly I look back on that season and Wiki says we were in the top 8 the whole year. 15 wins, 9 losses wasn't a bad record, either. Could be similar this year, and finish top 4.

We were finishing top-four in 2018 but for that Edrick Lee try off a clear forward pass at Mt Smart in one of our last games. Cronulla won and it pushed us down to eighth.

I was at the 2018 final and it never felt good, never felt real. We lacked guts and brains. We were up 12-2 early but the tide turned quite fast. Johnson made a break for the line and got rag-dolled by Waqa Blake, we never saw Johnson again.

Then early in the second-half Ken threw that hospital pass to Roger, bringing the ball out of our twenty, Roger got crunched, twisted something, and hobbled off for good.

We were done, and I certainly didn't have the old feeling back like I did in the Anderson/Cleary years.

This year I do.

 

[GoSouths]

Illustrates the need to get off to a hot start. 5-1 took the pressure off having to win games in a row when all the whips are cracking. Cowboys and historically, us.. missed the start badly and in a huge battle.
Though, Kearneys 5-0 start outlier season wasnt able to be sustained. Better coaching also helps.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

There’s a good chance we’re locked into third before the final round, if we stay two points ahead of Melbourne and our for and against advantage holds. If that’s the case I can definitely see us resting players- I’d be putting SJ, Tohu, Egan, Charnze and AFB on ice to make sure they don’t get injured or suspended.

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

Hot take but 2018 was better than any of the Cleary years in terms of the regular season. In 2008 and 2011 we pretty much muddled through and then came up with big wins in the finals. In 2008 we had to come from nowhere to even make the 8. 2011 we definitely had a bit more star power in the key positions by the time we got to the finals (basically the one good year of Maloney/Johnson) but that season overall was a bit lumpy.

2007 and 2010 we finished higher than 2008 or 2011 but those were years where we were sort of outdoing ourselves with a team of grafters, and specifically without gun halves. 2007 in particular we overachieved massively in retrospect but did we really think we were going to win a comp with Witt and Rovelli?

2018 we were in contention for the minor premiership most of the season, it was a bizarre year where the entire top 8 either ended up 16-8 or 15-9. We also had star power in the key spots with RTS/Johnson/Luke. I agree I never really expected us to win anything because it was such a random good year amidst a decade of crap, but that was a genuinely good season. We got off to a flying start though and tbf the second half of the season was more about clinging on to the good start than ramping up for a finals run.

I really reckon this is our best regular season since 2002 though. A run of losses now would spoil it but at the moment it stands alongside 2002 as perhaps the only seasons where we genuinely feel like a top team. I know we've debated "the Cleary years" before but I really don't think that was a feeling he cultivated within the club, in the Cleary years it was more like we scrapped hard to win 55% of our games and then hoped for an upset in the finals.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Hot take but 2018 was better than any of the Cleary years in terms of the regular season. In 2008 and 2011 we pretty much muddled through and then came up with big wins in the finals. In 2008 we had to come from nowhere to even make the 8. 2011 we definitely had a bit more star power in the key positions by the time we got to the finals (basically the one good year of Maloney/Johnson) but that season overall was a bit lumpy.

2007 and 2010 we finished higher than 2008 or 2011 but those were years where we were sort of outdoing ourselves with a team of grafters, and specifically without gun halves. 2007 in particular we overachieved massively in retrospect but did we really think we were going to win a comp with Witt and Rovelli?

2018 we were in contention for the minor premiership most of the season, it was a bizarre year where the entire top 8 either ended up 16-8 or 15-9. We also had star power in the key spots with RTS/Johnson/Luke. I agree I never really expected us to win anything because it was such a random good year amidst a decade of crap, but that was a genuinely good season. We got off to a flying start though and tbf the second half of the season was more about clinging on to the good start than ramping up for a finals run.

I really reckon this is our best regular season since 2002 though. A run of losses now would spoil it but at the moment it stands alongside 2002 as perhaps the only seasons where we genuinely feel like a top team. I know we've debated "the Cleary years" before but I really don't think that was a feeling he cultivated within the club, in the Cleary years it was more like we scrapped hard to win 55% of our games and then hoped for an upset in the finals.

I do kinda wonder how 2019 would’ve gone if the situation with SJ hadn’t gone so badly at the end of the year. Kearney was no premiership coach but in all honestly wasn’t the worst we’ve ever had either, and that roster could’ve made a decent tilt if it had stayed together. We lost Lino too so our halves stock was gutted.

 

[Manu Vatuvei]

I do kinda wonder how 2019 would’ve gone if the situation with SJ hadn’t gone so badly at the end of the year. Kearney was no premiership coach but in all honestly wasn’t the worst we’ve ever had either, and that roster could’ve made a decent tilt if it had stayed together. We lost Lino too so our halves stock was gutted.

In fairness to Kearney/the club, I thought the decision to move SJ on, in isolation of all other factors, was understandable. The SJ of 2016-2018 just wasn't that good and honestly despite us having a strong season he wasn't actually that great in 2018. I know plenty of people bemoaned him leaving at the time, but I still think it's revisionism to act like he was playing at an elite level when he left.

Of course what wasn't understandable at all was moving him on without a replacement.....

 

[SpaceMonkey]

In fairness to Kearney/the club, I thought the decision to move SJ on, in isolation of all other factors, was understandable. The SJ of 2016-2018 just wasn't that good and honestly despite us having a strong season he wasn't actually that great in 2018. I know plenty of people bemoaned him leaving at the time, but I still think it's revisionism to act like he was playing at an elite level when he left.

Of course what wasn't understandable at all was moving him on without a replacement.....

Agree, and I think SJ himself and his management were partly at fault too. But the whole situation was terribly managed with it blowing up while he was on tour with the kiwis and pretty much getting moved on by the time he got home.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

We’ve been officially pulled from the betting options to make the eight now- considered a total certainty so unbackable.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Agree, and I think SJ himself and his management were partly at fault too. But the whole situation was terribly managed with it blowing up while he was on tour with the kiwis and pretty much getting moved on by the time he got home.

I think when it's all said and done, SJ will likely admit he was at fault back then, as were the club. I don't have any way to substantiate this but everything I heard around that 2014-18 time was he was a very average trainer and his attitude wasn't befitting of a marquee player. He needed to be in a good side under a strong coach to be professional, which was an indictment on him. He was never a leader, never interested until now. We're lucky Webster has got the best out of him, and so is SJ - it's certainly put rose-tinted glasses on his career if he ends well. He used to read his own press way too much too, always responding to the 'haters' - most notably after that awful loss to Fiji in the World Cup, when he said 'yous got what you wanted' like anyone wanted the Kiwis to fail.

But hey, he's flying now. I've always loved the guy and I'm stoked we finally got the mature, switched on, complete player we're getting now.

I also think it vindicates what a lot of us have said for years, we were basically told from club people that saying 'he needs to take on the line more' was poppycock and he was playing the way he needed to...but now he's doing all the things we as hardcore fans have been demanding for a decade.

 

[JJ]

I think when it's all said and done, SJ will likely admit he was at fault back then, as were the club. I don't have any way to substantiate this but everything I heard around that 2014-18 time was he was a very average trainer and his attitude wasn't befitting of a marquee player. He needed to be in a good side under a strong coach to be professional, which was an indictment on him. He was never a leader, never interested until now. We're lucky Webster has got the best out of him, and so is SJ - it's certainly put rose-tinted glasses on his career if he ends well. He used to read his own press way too much too, always responding to the 'haters' - most notably after that awful loss to Fiji in the World Cup, when he said 'yous got what you wanted' like anyone wanted the Kiwis to fail.

But hey, he's flying now. I've always loved the guy and I'm stoked we finally got the mature, switched on, complete player we're getting now.

I also think it vindicates what a lot of us have said for years, we were basically told from club people that saying 'he needs to take on the line more' was poppycock and he was playing the way he needed to...but now he's doing all the things we as hardcore fans have been demanding for a decade.

hehe - maybe he can trot out the "yous got what you wanted" line again now? Because we have this year

 

[Penrose Warrior]

hehe - maybe he can trot out the "yous got what you wanted" line again now? Because we have this year

Haha exactly - that'll be the quote on the podium with the 2023 Provan Simmonds Trophy. YOUS GOT WHAT YOU WANTED, BABY!

 

[Campion]

If he did that, it would be magical. Actually, I hope he pulls out the exact quote when the Warriors lift the NRL trophy THIS YEAR. What a way to emphasize his dramatic turnaround.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

If he did that, it would be magical. Actually, I hope he pulls out the exact quote when the Warriors lift the NRL trophy THIS YEAR. What a way to emphasize his dramatic turnaround.

If he does it accepting the Dally M I’ll take that too.

honestly though I don’t even think he’d be that much of a smartarse. SJ just seems to be living the dream and absolutely loving football and life right now. It’s like he’s finally having the season he’s always wanted to have since 2011. It’s great to see and been a long time coming.

 

[sup42]

Every team we play from here is finding a late season resurgence and going up an extra gear.

You get that at this time of year, players playing for contracts, new blood coming through form Reggies, coach sackings etc.

Titans rolled the Cowboys then pushed us hard with 12 men.

Tigers were robbed of an upset victory over the Raiders 22-18

Manly had a couple of wins Vs the Sharks and Dragons, they got rolled by a resurgent Roosters.

Dolphins had a respectable loss to the Panthers, narrow losses of no more than 2 points in a couple of recent games.

The Dragons have improved, a win over the Tigers and respectable close losses to the Eels and Manly.

The run for home is going to be tougher than it looks compared to our opponents ladder positions, which is good for the Warriors. We need the work out.

The ole one week at a time chestnut applies.

Win this week and the finals is all but guaranteed.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Win this week and the finals is all but guaranteed.

the finals are already guaranteed, we can’t miss the eight. At this point anything outside top 4 will feel like a failure, and it should. We only need to win two of our remaining four games to secure 4th. We should be aiming to secure 3rd spot, top two is out of our hands but who knows, the Panthers or Broncos could theoretically slip up.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Scenarios for where we could finish:

1st or 2nd: mathematical possibilities only. Needs the Panthers and Broncos to drop at least 2 games or 3 if we can’t make up a big points differential.

3rd: we should retain third if remaining results go to form. We could do it with 3/4 wins provided we stay ahead of the Storm on points difference (we’re currently 40 ahead of them)

4th: where we’ll be if we drop two of the remaining games.

5th-6th: could happen but we’d need to lose 3/4 from here.

7th-8th: purely mathematical possibilities where we lose our remaining games and a bunch of other results go against at us.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Top 2 is gone now
3rd is ours if we win our last two
Will drop to 4th if we lose one and the Storm win their last two
Will drop to 5th if we lost both and the Sharks win their last two.
Can’t finish lower than 5th as every other team is too far behind.

for and against is basically level between us, Melbourne and the Sharks.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Top 2 is gone now
3rd is ours if we win our last two
Will drop to 4th if we lose one and the Storm win their last two
Will drop to 5th if we lost both and the Sharks win their last two.
Can’t finish lower than 5th as every other team is too far behind.

for and against is basically level between us, Melbourne and the Sharks.

Basically we will get the choice to play Panthers by finishing 4th or Broncos by finishing 3rd.
Storm play Broncos on Thursday last round, we play Dolphins Saturday, Panthers game follows ours vs Cowboys.

Knights v Sharks next weekend will determine if Sharks keep the pressure on. Knights are coming home strong.
But I see the top 4 teams resting players final round. SJ quad obviously a concern.

 

[Meth]

I hope that we finish 3rd and play the Broncos. As good as they are going, we're always a shot against them.

Lose that and I'd have us playing the Sharks or the Roosters in week 2 to be in with a chance to play the Panthers in week 3.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Basically we will get the choice to play Panthers by finishing 4th or Broncos by finishing 3rd.
Storm play Broncos on Thursday last round, we play Dolphins Saturday, Panthers game follows ours vs Cowboys.

Knights v Sharks next weekend will determine if Sharks keep the pressure on. Knights are coming home strong.
But I see the top 4 teams resting players final round. SJ quad obviously a concern.

Sharks beaten one top 8 team all year, the Rabbitohs (twice) in round 1 and in Perth. I reckon the Knights will smoke them. Knights on a seven game winning streak.

Definitely want the Broncos in week 1.