Are we that far off?

[Rolla]

We are sitting 3rd now and we are a top 8 side (IMO), still every reason to be positive.

Lots of negativity floating around and some are saying we might not reach the top or see a return to the glory year. They may be right, however here is my personal take on how we might get there. Lets save the chat about the competency of the club/board/recruitment team for elsewhere for now and pretend you are running the club. This is about what can and might happen, not necessarily what we think WILL happen . Have some hypothetical fun with it.

I agree with those saying we aren't top 4 quality, but I think we are closer than is being made out. So here is my take on our road to becoming a top 4 side. Lets assume Gidley goes and we throw his money at a good/top number 7. Others will go too but we can assume we spend their money on a 'like' replacement (e.g. Scott for Bird) so lets keep the rest the same.



Backs

1. Gagai
2. Aku
3. Sione
4. Leilua
5. Mamo

We can shuffle Mamo, Gagai and Sione all we like but in those 5 we have a top 4 backline, even if Mamo doesn't hit the heights I expect it is still top 4 with Jimmy swapping with him and we have good depth. Not a dollar spent other than an upgrade or replacement for Gagai.
Top 4 - no Cost



Halves

6. Mullen
7. Insert good half

We can look at current form all we want but Mullen is quality and he will find his mojo. If we throw Kurt's coin at a quality halfback it will directly add the main thing we are missing as well as potentially see Mullen thrive. And yes, before anyone points this out I do know it will be hard to attract a top half and I don't know who is available - but lets assume we can get someone decent ;-).
Top 4 - Cost will be Gidley's money and probably a bit more (lets say 100k-200K).




Forwards

8. Snowden
9. Clydesdale
10. K. Simms
11. Scott
12. T Simms
13. Rochow

I rate this starting pack, highly, and think it is top 4 material. Snowden could make the Australian team right now and Korbin is already good and will only get better.
The back rowers are rep standard. If Scott goes and we bring in the likes of Bird it is still rep standard.
Rochow at lock as his motor is valuable and Smith can't play forever. Rochow will offer more meters, size and get through plenty of work (the props and 2nd rowers have plenty of starch).
The question mark is Clydesdale, I think he already does the little things right. His service is good, he makes the right decisions, he pitches in with tries and assists and he defends well. He is already a decent player and hopefully with experience he can add a little more dominance to the game and show more of a running game. He won't be an Isaac Luke type but in lower grades he has shown he can kick, direct, create and lead like the Smiths and Farrer's of the game. Can he show it in the NRL? I will be positive and say yes.
This pack would stand up to any - top 4 - No cost



The bench

14. Roberts
15. Smith
16. Stockwell
17. Vai Vai

Here is where it gets iffy.
I think Roberts would find his 'thing' in the 14, adding spark when he comes on, Craig Wing style.
Smith would ensure we have a leader in the middle when Snowy goes off and Stockwell is a solid bench prop who should improve.
17 is the tricky one, Tapine will play most games as someone will be injured but we need another prop on there. If Vai Vai or somebody steps up we are right, otherwise we go to Market after offloading Hous Faas and bring a solid bench option in (at least).
So assuming Vai vai steps up or we replace House and Faas with a decent prop I will say not top 4 unless we sign a marquee prop and not below 8th unless we can't replace the plodders and nobody steps up.
Top 8 - no cost



Depth

Backline,
Jimmy, Ross, Chanel Pat - Strong - No Cost

Halves,
Roberts might not be killing it starting but better than most back ups Strong - No cost

Hooker/Bench utility,
Randall - Solid - No Cost

Forwards,
Tapine, House (replacement), Faas (replacement), Debutants Weak - Needs investment

To sum up the depth situation I think we need to invest in forward depth, the rest is solid at worst.



So how far off are we and how do we get there?

- Replace Gidley with a top half - likely 200k / or a decent half - no cost

- Replace House and Faas - shouldn't be hard to upgrade, House in particular would be on OK coin so this move should strengthen our bench at no cost

- Add forward depth, assume Vaivai comes along and bring a couple in - 400k?

- Replace any good players leaving (Smith? Scott? Gagai?) with players that are as good for the same price.

- Any leftover money goes to upgrading contracts. I'm no good at the accounting stuff but we should have cap space for all of this.....right?

Note: I have assumed a few current youngsters will improve, I think that is fair. But to balance this optimism I have assumed none of our lower grade/age players yet to debut will launch into the team (only Pat Mat and Ross for backline depth which I think is fair on current form/ability). Anyone who does this would be a bonus.



So yeah, I'm obviously bored on a Sunday, but it looks achievable to me. What do you think? Agree? am I way off?

 

[Chicken_Hunter]

Consistency is the key in the NRL, any team can beat anyone in this comp. Its the teams that can maintain a high level of performance over a long period of time that will finish well.

The most important job role any club could employ imo is a sports psychologist to keep the team in a frame of mind that can achieve a similar performance each week rather than playing like world beaters one week and spoon contenders the next like parra.

 

[Rolla]

Agree, I honestly think our mentality is relatively strong, we rarely play like world beaters or spooners. I think our improvement needs to come in the form of roster and coaching (not a dig, I like Stone and think he can do it). As well as strengthening a little we need 'smarts' and 'courage'. Look at Mullen's kick for Aku from the scrum win in our half, initiative and unpredictability without unnecessary risk. And bring back his crossfield kicks on the halfway line from before Bennet (when the time is right). We are too predictable and need more players that have the smarts and courage to play what is in front of them, make the right call and execute. For all his faults Tyrone does this, he is at his best when he makes it up as he goes.

 

[Noname36]

Depends on how much it rains.

 

[Apey]

I think we're a long way off tbh. The top teams would destroy us the way we're playing. Thankfully I don't think we play them for a while (?) so we have time to get it right.

 

[Yosh]

We should have beaten the Dragons and Sharks if we weren't far off. We don't look like we have the points in us atm. We seem to defend okay but we need some points to take the pressure off our defense.

We have an amazing back line but we use them as backrowers. What's the point of having of having Gagai and BJ if they never get early ball? What's the point of having wonderful finishers if they never get a decent crack at the line. Uate has improved considerably under the highball and Jimmy has always been class. When was the last time we put up a bomb to our winger?

Sims x2 and Rochow are good runners of the ball and they can hit the line at speed and hit holes well. Why is our pet play an inside ball to Houston? We do it so often and it never works.

Our defending has been pretty class considering we had no ball against the Sharks. If we start doing the small things right in attack, we'll be a much more balanced side. Early ball to our backs and start putting Rochow and the Sims into gaps.

 

[Noname36]

Completely agree Yosh. We were getting good early ball to the backs in the Penrith game (little coincidence that was the only game Mullen has played well all year) and I thought we were heading in the right direction but then we were back to the inside ball crap the following week. That only works if you have great middle forwards which we don't. We need to start playing to our strengths which are the outside backs.

I find the whole thing pretty confusing given when Stone was in charge last time his plans always involved getting the ball early to the backs and doing that was helping us early in the year. Not sure why we'd go away from it.

 

[The Showstopper]

He was coaching high completion football in the wet. i agree we should just shift the ball and use our backs skill set to push the ball on the fringes. In the wet the forwards can slow the game down so much more easily in the ruck. Easier to compress your defence meaning inside balls are easier to defend.

 

[slotmachine]

You've put a lot of effort into that, but it assumes a top quality half is available (they aren't) and would come to Newcastle (they wouldn't).

The current pack got destroyed by the Sharks on Friday, they are miles off top 4 quality. Look at Souths/Dogs/Roosters by comparison.

We might have the worst hooker rotation in the comp, there are huge question marks at fullback, mullen seems to have had a stroke etc etc etc.

The backs are top 4 quality but they're not going to win a comp on their own.

Anyway, it doesn't really worry me because I don't expect us to be challenging for the comp any time soon. Regularly sneaking into the finals would be a win really.

 

[aqua_duck]

Our pack is nowhere near top 4, look at teams like Souths, Dogs, Storm, roosters, etc and there's abit of a gulf to what we're running out. Our bench is bottom 4 to me

 

[Joker's Wild]

I think we have some hookers we can work with. Clydesdale and Randall have it in them to be a good rotation but as it stands they are not getting the time on the paddock to improve. Having Sione come on and Gidley going to hooker for long periods is just not working, in fact it is degrading the team cohesion

Outside of that we are getting killed in the front row rotation. Snowden and Sims are a good starting pair and Stockwell is coming along but we are missing another quality prop coming off the bench to keep the opposition honest. Faalongo and Houston are not good enough

Our halves dont know what to do when our middle is dominated either. Once our go forward is lost they dont seem to know what to do

 

[macavity]

Who is this mythical top quality half we are going to sign?

 

[Swarzey]

Four positions. That's all I believe needs changing.

Drop Houston and Fa'alogo. We've got some great talent in NSW Cup and U20's that with enough time, enough opportunity, could save us a fortune. Vaivai, Mataora, Tapine, Yates, Fitzgibbon, Taylor, Finn. More than capable coming off the bench.

Love what Gidley has given to the club but he stuffs up the spine. I'm not sold on Sione Mata'utia being our long term fullback, but even having there week in and week out for the full 80 will benefit the side; there's every possibility he'll adjust to the position. Can't put Gidley at hooker, service is too poor. Can't put him at halfback, he's far too controlling and doesn't have the mindset for it.

Finally, we need a halfback that provides structure and direction. When it's on point, we have a halve that can provide the game's best kicking game, a brilliant passing game and a good running game. I just get this feeling Mullen is expected to fill EVERY role; the play maker, the play kicker, the ball runner and everything in between and simply cracks under that pressure. JT and Cronk are the only two halves in the competition that can carry responsibility without an issue. Having someone like Hodkinson who isn't flash, isn't a ball runner but directs the Bulldogs around picks when and where to attack would do f**king wonders for our attack. Perhaps we have that in Brock Lamb or Cogger but they're still a few years away and we can't rush them.

We don't have a side that's going to rock up one year and win a premiership. Instead, what we have is a number of young players with loads of potential that needs to be given time and opportunity to develop. Perhaps eventually we'll need to hit the market for an impact prop from the bench or something similar in the second row, but right now we have the depth, we have the players that have every chance to fill that role. Too lazy to look but I'm sure there's players in the NRL that came through our system one way or another but just weren't given the chance.

We're not exactly close, but we're not as far off as some people here make us out to be.

 

[Allstar Knights]

Drop Houston and Fa'alogo. We've got some great talent in NSW Cup and U20's that with enough time, enough opportunity, could save us a fortune. Vaivai, Mataora, Tapine, Yates, Fitzgibbon, Taylor, Finn. More than capable coming off the bench.

Agreed, although I'll be surprised if Mataora, Taylor and Finn ever amount to much in FG tbh. They are ok in NSW Cup but nowhere near as dominant as a Vaivai or Tapine. Fitzgibbon had a blinder a few weeks ago and certainly looked the goods in that grade already. I wouldn't mind Yates go up to NSW Cup for a few games in preparation for first grade later in the year.

 

[aqua_duck]

I'm huge on Lamb and Cogger, I think they can be our version of Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses. I agree with Mataora, Taylor and Finn, the latter 2 just don't have 1st grade prop size, Mataora has size but not a lot else that stands out. Vai Vai is a bloke who needs to work abit harder on the training paddock but could be a viable bench option, Tapine and Fitzgibbon need abit more size but I like them. Luke Yates reminds me of Josh Jackson, not that big but quick, fit and plays hard, I think if the league goes down to 6 interchanges he's the type of player who'll become a lot more valuable. The 2 Saifiti twins in NYC impressed me abit and definitely have the size though probably a few years off.

 

[Allstar Knights]

I'm huge on Lamb and Cogger, I think they can be our version of Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses. I agree with Mataora, Taylor and Finn, the latter 2 just don't have 1st grade prop size, Mataora has size but not a lot else that stands out. Vai Vai is a bloke who needs to work abit harder on the training paddock but could be a viable bench option, Tapine and Fitzgibbon need abit more size but I like them. Luke Yates reminds me of Josh Jackson, not that big but quick, fit and plays hard, I think if the league goes down to 6 interchanges he's the type of player who'll become a lot more valuable. The 2 Saifiti twins in NYC impressed me abit and definitely have the size though probably a few years off.

Yeah, I don't think Mataora has the motor at the moment to be FG standard. Could still be a work in progress but I'm not convinced yet. Agreed, Vaivai was pretty good off the bench in firsts but could work on his fitness a bit. He looked zapped pretty quickly, but promising signs there at least.

We're really a decent prop or two short right now.

 

[Noname36]

Realistically we need another clean out which is ridiculous when you consider how often we have one.

We have too many older blokes on the books that aren't contributing what they should be given the amount of experience. Houston, Fa'alogo and Gidley all need to go. Roberts needs to either be moved to the bench or moved on too. Then there's Mullen who I don't even know what the best option would be anymore...

As much as the forwards have improved this year we're still a good couple of quality props short. We're 1 Snowden or Sims injury away from last years mess. The idea to load up on so many older experienced forwards was probably a good idea at the time given how close we got to a premiership in 2013 but it's f**ked us up now given it left us with an aging pack and we only made one signing in Tariq to prepare for the next few years.

We're now paying for a problem we needed to address a very long time ago. Re-signing Houston and Fa'alogo just made it worse (although Fa'alogo was okay last year but he was on the wrong end of the age spectrum when we already had Scott and Smith).

 

[aqua_duck]

I think for too long the club has gone with bandaid solutions rather than an actual rebuild, Houston should've been moved on 2 years ago and Faalogo should've been a depth guy on the fringe of the top 17 at best, in other words 5th or 6th on the depth chart, the problem is he's 3rd on our depth chart as steadily declining. We desperately need another 2-3 big bodies (110kg+) to even be competitive. I mean to put things in perspective, Snowden aside BJ is bigger than all our forwards

 

[slotmachine]

On the plus side though there are plenty of good young pieces at the club with first grade experience; Korbin, Tariq, Gagai, Sione, BJ, Aku, Rochow, Tapine, Stockwell.

Then you have Lamb, Cogger and Levi as the spine players to come through in the next two years and hopefully replace the problem we currently have.

And we can ditch Smith, Gidley and Fa'alogo at the end of this year, and Houston + Jimmy Mac in 2016.

If we could sign Bird to replace Smith, and be patient until the young spine players come on this could be the 2017 side.

Gagai
Chanel
BJ
Sione
Uate
Mullen
Lamb
Snowden
Levi
Korbin
Rochow
Tariq
Bird

Clydesdale/Roberts
Tapine
Stockwell
???

Still missing props obviously, but that is realistic.

Back in reality though the current guys all get re-signed and nothing changes.

 

[Spot On]

I don't think the game requires too many 110Kg plus guys in the near future. ATM the Dragons are proving this theory correct, as are the Broncs.

I agree we have, and have had for a long while, a shortage of decent props but our real problem is the spine, esp the halves and thier inconsistent attack and kicking game. Piss poor decision making, inability to create points and test defences and for some reason absolutely no idea how to build pressure with a smart 'end of set' kicking game.

6 points in two weeks if f**king pathetic.