I agree, however based on the recent performances of both the Roos and the Kiwis it's easy to see why people have come to that conclusion, and they may just be right.
On the other hand it is not easy to see how the English fans that are expecting the English team to waltz their way into the final have come to their conclusions, personally I can see Tonga and even PNG surprising England.
If I was betting on either game I'd back England and I expect them to win both games (comfortably against the Kumals, but with a little bit more difficulty against the Tongans) but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Tonga march into the final on the back of the confidence gained from beating the Kiwis or PNG to ride a wave national pride and pull of a thrilling upset over your lot.