Possible causes I can see:
-teams getting accustomed to them. A new player with a new style and being used by their coach in a new way is always going to be dangerous.
-the junior breaking through with an early peak and not building or maintaining it.
-young guys are still maturing, and as such often have personal stuff going on that can negatively contribute to their on-field performances.
-"the hype" getting to them. Personally I think this part is overrated, but I'm sure there's a psychological aspect to many second year syndromes.
...just on Johnson; I find him an extremely well-spoken, self-aware individual who displays little emotion on the football field and seems to be massively focused on becoming the best he can. I consider this to be a product of our uber cautious management of him as he came up through the grades.
I don't expect any second year fade from this guy - though it will be very interesting to see how he responds to the new coach.
It would seem then that much of it is mental.
"-teams getting accustomed to them. A new player with a new style and being used by their coach in a new way is always going to be dangerous."
- I guess this could well be proof of whether the player has real class, or was a bit over-hyped. The better players seem to counter-adapt so that they remain a threat throughout their careers. I don't think anyone ever managed to get a real bead on Langer, and others abound who, even if you know what to expect still struggle to deal with them.
"-the junior breaking through with an early peak and not building or maintaining it."
- Is that that a matter of mental fatigue? Loss of interest? Lack of personal discipline? or some other sort of lack of ambition? In this regard Foran has to be one of the most 'got-it-together' young players I've ever seen
"-young guys are still maturing, and as such often have personal stuff going on that can negatively contribute to their on-field performances."
-I agree with this, I think it's often a matter of growing up, of changes biological and philosophical. Maybe due to injury Johnson has had that extra time to sort himself out, and so we haven't seen the issue for him.
-As an example to counter that idea though, one might say that early this year Locke was in real turmoil.
"-"the hype" getting to them. Personally I think this part is overrated, but I'm sure there's a psychological aspect to many second year syndromes."
-In this regard I think the young players here in NZ may have an advantage over the fish-bowl of Sydney or the UK. I remember Jason Robinson saying how he got a big head because of everyone telling him how good he was, and how Tuigamala helped bring him back down to earth.
Whatever the answers are. I'm kind of interested in how we'll (or rather Bluey will) deal with them, because we have a truckload of youngsters waiting to push their way into the FG. I'm honestly not that familiar with the management skills of Ackland et al, but am encouraged by your assessment of them.