Battle @ Midway... Port, Brisbane & Kangas all GAWN!

[CyberKev]

Well, here we are at the midway point of the season. Its certainly turning into an intriguing affair, and for mine, its still very much open. That being said, history does tell us that a number of sides are already out of the running for the 2005 premiership.

The Kangaroos have docked in position 7 after round 11, and this is the devil's position. Since the inception of Grand Finals in the VFL in 1931, no side has won the premiership having turned in 7th spot at the halfway mark.

All sides currently positioned from 11th through 16th (inclusive) are also finished, which takes reigning champion Port and (current) side of the noughties, Brisbane, out of the equation.

Carlton won the 1945 premiership after turning in 9th spot at the halfway point, and Adelaide set the record by storming back from 10th spot after round 11 in 1998! This affords painfully slight hope to Fremantle & The Western Bulldogs, but suffice to say there are infinitely better uses of your money than to put it on either of these ponies for the flag.

Not surprisingly, around three quarters of all premiership sides since 1931 have been positioned in the top three at the mid-point of the season.

A full rundown of all 74 GF winners and there respective positions at the halfway mark of the season are presented below:

1st - 27 times (36%)
2nd - 16 times (22%)
3rd - 12 times (16%)
4th - 4 times (5%)
5th - 6 times (8%)
6th - 3 times (4%)
7th - 0 times (0%)
8th - 4 times (5%)
9th - 1 time (1%)
10th - 1 time (1%)

 

[meltiger]

Adelaide set the record by storming back from 10th spot after round 11 in 1998!

More importantly, didn't they finish 6th after 22 rounds & do it the hard way?

4 finals, 3 in Melbourne? This was the year the beat the Doggies by 3 in the prelim? Or am I wrong there?

 

[CyberKev]

More importantly, didn't they finish 6th after 22 rounds & do it the hard way?

4 finals, 3 in Melbourne? This was the year the beat the Doggies by 3 in the prelim? Or am I wrong there?

Nah mate...

You're confusing your years and talking about 1997. That was probably as even a season as I had seen, and this year holds out similar hope for a number of sides, providing they can stay healthy.

In 1998, Adelaide finished fifth, got smacked by Melbourne in the first week of the finals, but perversely got a home final the following week and never looked back.

 

[meltiger]

Nah mate...

You're confusing your years and talking about 1997. That was probably as even a season as I had seen, and this year holds out similar hope for a number of sides, providing they can stay healthy.

In 1998, Adelaide finished fifth, got smacked by Melbourne in the first week of the finals, but perversely got a home final the following week and never looked back.

Ahh woops. How did they get a 2nd week home final after losing in first round?

Wouldn't the two lowest winners have gotten the home finals under the old 1 v 8, 2 v 6 etc system???

 

[meltiger]

I mean at best, Wouldn't they have been ranked at 5th of 6 teams once the re-rankings were done after the Qualifying Finals??

 

[CyberKev]

I mean at best, Wouldn't they have been ranked at 5th of 6 teams once the re-rankings were done after the Qualifying Finals??

Sorry, I'm full of sh*te and have misled Parliament on this one! :^o

Adelaide had to play Sydney in Sydney during the second week, which is how they bounced back to meet (and thump) the Bulldogs in the Preliminary Final.

 

[meltiger]

Sorry, I'm full of sh*te and have misled Parliament on this one! :^o

Meh, we've both had a bad day lol

Was it 1997 where they had a semi in Adelaide (2nd week) against Geelong after getting beaten first week maybe??? I have a vague memory of something like that.

 

[CyberKev]

Meh, we've both had a bad day lol

Was it 1997 where they had a semi in Adelaide (2nd week) against Geelong after getting beaten first week maybe??? I have a vague memory of something like that.

No, Adelaide coffee scrolled West Coast at home in the first week of finals before sneaking-in the following week against Geelong. A blaze of controversy surrounded the umpiring of that game, which is why it holds a place in my infamous 'gang of four' files - the four AFL games that I've actually seen purely, firmly and incontravertibly decided by dismal umpiring.

I maintain that Terry Wallace would remain haunted by that lost Preliminary Final, and Gary Ayres would have felt equally aggrieved at that heartbreaking loss in Adelaide the week before.

That premiership was fair dinkum anybodies!

 

[Troy is good]

I'm not sure you'd want to rely on those stats too heavily. Now is as good a time as any for a team in the bottom half to pull a West Brom (those of you who aren't familiar, West Brom were bottom of the English Premier League at Christmas time, from which no team has ever beaten relegation (ie finished 17th or higher out of 20). This season, they went from 20th to 17th due to 3 good results for them on the last day of the season).

Brisbane aren't dead yet, mind you. Call it blind optimism, faith or whatever. They've got a lot of new faces in the team this year, who are only going to improve with the more AFL experience they get. McLaren is a joke, he should be nowhere near a ruck contest at any time, however I see a lot of potential for the other youngsters Leigh's put into the side this year.

Brisbane's biggest problems I've seen this year have been in the ruck, midfield battle and the half-forward line. Numerous times this season I haven't seen them get a thing past half-forward (probably due to the absence of one Jonathan Brown), and they end up taking shots from around the 50 and going wide because they have no confidence in their ability to keep the ball there. This is where I've seen them really miss Lynch more than I ever thought they would, gone are the days where you could just bomb it to the square and know that Lynch would be there more often than not to take a strong mark.

Sandilands had 27 hit-outs against the Lions on the weekend, as opposed to a combined 25 for Keating, McLaren and Michael. You just have to wonder, what the f**k did they do with all those? We have Brown to thank a lot for Freo's lack of centre clearances given their advantage in the hit-outs. In the second half especially, the Lions just ran over Freo as they didn't allow them any flow whatsoever, and the Lions midfield really stood up. Voss, Black, Brown, Power and Aker showed glimpses of the Lions midfield of old. If Brisbane can keep up the good work in midfield and get their ruck right, they'll be hard to stop in the second half of the season

They ain't done yet.

 

[CyberKev]

Brisbane's biggest problems I've seen this year have been in the ruck, midfield battle and the half-forward line. Numerous times this season I haven't seen them get a thing past half-forward (probably due to the absence of one Jonathan Brown), and they end up taking shots from around the 50 and going wide because they have no confidence in their ability to keep the ball there. This is where I've seen them really miss Lynch more than I ever thought they would, gone are the days where you could just bomb it to the square and know that Lynch would be there more often than not to take a strong mark.

Thanks for reiterating this point.

From a Hawthorn perspective, I've found myself defending our midfield from ill-considered attacks from rival fans who assert that a wealth of possession out of the centre from the likes of Mitchell, Crawford & Hodge has to be dodgy because the side is losing more games than it is winning. Such people put too much stock in midfield power and too little stock in the value of a strong forward line with multiple viable options.

Brisbane have looked rudderless at times this season, particularly during that period when Brown was out. With the likes of Akermanis, Lappin & Power getting heaps of ball it was all for nought because the side lacked the necessary forward options to capitalise. This also has a flow-on effect, whereby the ball starts rebounding too easily toward the opposing goal, putting extra undue stress on your defence. As such, class defenders like Michael & Leppitsch have looked markedly less like their usual composed selves at times this year also.

Midfield focussed awards (such as the Brownlow medal), combined with the reality that midfielders are more prominent in the game as they are in greater supply than key forwards, has led to a midfield fixation among some tragics. If you don't have a sound forward structure and overall good team balance, however, you're fatally flawed.

For the record, Brisbane are unlikely to win the flag, but may still make the eight.

 

[Troy is good]

Yeah, my tip for the Lions this year is a first week finals exit, just FTR