Bet of the Week

[jimmythehand]

Last week's win by the Broncos made me 3/3.
$2.10 on Panthers to beat Warriors
$2.31 on Panthers to beat Roosters
$1.91 on Broncos to beat Roosters with 6 points start

Profit of $33.20 if betting $10 each week.

This week I think that in the Raiders vs Sharks game that the Raiders are going to turn up to play as they do every week.

The Sharks may or may not put in a good performance, but even if they do they'll struggle to compete with the structured game of the Raiders.

Line betting on this game sees the line ranging from 4.5 to 6.5 - choosing the right bookie with the right line could be the difference between winning and losing the bet. So I'll give Cronulla 5.5 points start and take the odds of $1.87 for a Raiders victory of 6 or more points (much better value than $1.80 for 4.5 points or $1.90 for 6.5 points).

Here is the link to the best lines/odds for the Raiders Sharks game:
http://www.leaguetipping.com/betting?competitionid=10&team=Canberra

It's a very challenging week this week, with very few options standing out. Anyone else have what they think is a good value bet?

 

[fizman]

A good mate of mine is a "Professional Punter" and he gave me 2 FANTASTIC pieces of advice.

1. Don't bet the house to win the garage.

2. Don't let emotion get in the way of a bet.

The tip of the week from him is to back St George for the win at $2.00.

The theory is to back a team in the top 8 who is playing at home and is $2.00 or more.

Key points:

St George are playing good footy at the moment and are high in confidence.
St George will be playing in front of a good crowd at the Gong
Penrith looked a little unsettled in the back end of the second half against the Storm and could be due for a loss due to the VERY tough start to the season they have had.

 

[jimmythehand]

This almost makes me laugh. I seriously considered this bet as well, but then thought : how many times in the past year have people been backing against Penrith, and how many times have they been burnt?

I would not back against Penrith, sure they are probably due for a loss, sure the dragons are playing great footy, sure the dragons have won 4/5 of the last encounters against the Panthers, but how can you bet against the benchmark team in the NRL? Especially against a team like the Dragons that can be brilliant one week and woeful the next.

I'd want odds of around $2.40 for a Dragons victory, currently as you can see at http://www.leaguetipping.com/betting?competitionid=10&team=Penrith the best is only $2.07. I think the $1.86 odds for the Panthers which is only a 54% chance of winning is better value

Having said that it's very tempting to tip the Dragons in the tipping com!!

 

[Eels Dude]

St George are playing good footy at the moment and are high in confidence.

If there is one thing we all should have learnt from watching the Dragons in the past few seasons it's that the above statement means nothing. St George seem to be a side that can only put a couple of wins together before self destructing. Seeing as they have put in 2 great performances in a row, and are playing the reigning premiers and comp leaders I think they're due for one of those off weeks.

 

[Swampdonkey]

My bet of the week....

Warriors are exceptional value at anything from 2.10 to 2.52.

Doggies wiped the floor with the Eels in round one, but have done little since, with 2 narrow victories against the 2 favourites for the wooden spoon as well as a 35-0 drubbing at the hands of an heavily injured Roosters outfit.

Warriors haven't been that impressive either, but they have only just been losing to some pretty handy sides and they beat Manly at Brookvale fairly comfortably.

They seemingly have a near full strength side, with the most noteable omission being PJ Marsh, besides that they are practically full strength.

It is practically a Warriors home game and i think the Doggies are a little over-rated by the bookies.....

A couple of Roughies who are better chance than the odds suggest....

Manly against Parramatta at Brookvale paying anything from 2.45 to 2.75, they are always a chance at Brookie and have a decent record against the Eels there.

Newcastle against Roosters in Newcastle paying anything from 2.35 to 2.50, again the Knights are always a chance at Newcastle, John's or no John's they look a good team on paper and the Roosters are missing a few players, most notably Craig Wing. The Roosters have also being beaten comfortably in the past 2 weeks and their threequarter line is struggling. Knights also are coming off a win in NZ so the confidence will be sky high......

 

[innsaneink]

Sharks getting 4.5 points start V raiders is laughable.
then ask yourself why?

 

[EdBurton]

Why?!?

 

[Warriorsrule]

you'll get good value for your dollar betting against the Warriors, i think the Knights game last week would have made a few punters really happy and the TAB really angry.

 

[jimmythehand]

I think the Dogs/Warriors is a good game to stay well away from. Both teams are not playing well, and it's not the sort of game where you could expect anything to happen with any great certainty. If anything Swamp Donkey was onto something with the Warriors at $2.52, but how could you back this team the way they're playing?

 

[innsaneink]

Why?!?

Sharks 38-24 Raiders, thats why.....someone knew something.

 

[Raider_69]

they knew the raiders struggle at shark park and they struggle coming off the bye, add to that the sharks had to improve, they couldnt get any worse

a combination of all me thinks

 

[Gooba]

Last week i bet on the knights to win.. i put $20 on it and got back 87.50.. what a great win it was!!

 

[ali]

I've just got off the phone with Sean Long. He said get on Saints to lose by 9+. ;-)

 

[t-ba]

:lol: :lol: .

Atleast Thorman and Lennon are being schooled in the Aussie halfback tradition. They might finally have a proper half...

 

[jimmythehand]

Last week i bet on the knights to win.. i put $20 on it and got back 87.50.. what a great win it was!!

That's terrible, you could have got odds of $20 and got back $100 by using the bookmaker with the best odds. Imagine how much extra you'd make in a year if you used the best bookie each time :?

 

[jimmythehand]

I mean odds of $5

 

[TRANSLATION]

Last week's win by the Broncos made me 3/3.
$2.10 on Panthers to beat Warriors
$2.31 on Panthers to beat Roosters
$1.91 on Broncos to beat Roosters with 6 points start

Profit of $33.20 if betting $10 each week.

This week I think that in the Raiders vs Sharks game that the Raiders are going to turn up to play as they do every week.

The Sharks may or may not put in a good performance, but even if they do they'll struggle to compete with the structured game of the Raiders.

Line betting on this game sees the line ranging from 4.5 to 6.5 - choosing the right bookie with the right line could be the difference between winning and losing the bet. So I'll give Cronulla 5.5 points start and take the odds of $1.87 for a Raiders victory of 6 or more points (much better value than $1.80 for 4.5 points or $1.90 for 6.5 points).

Here is the link to the best lines/odds for the Raiders Sharks game:
http://www.leaguetipping.com/betting?competitionid=10&team=Canberra

It's a very challenging week this week, with very few options standing out. Anyone else have what they think is a good value bet?

Jimmy If you want to see how to Back Multi winners check the new Betting Forum on LU.

My FAB 5 this week where.
This week I took -
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Dragons at $2.00
Roosters $1.50
Waratahs $1.47
Crusaders $1.22
Melbourne/Melbourne H/F Double $1.45
$35 x $7.69 = $269.14
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