Betting for profit?

[Poul]

I'm contemplating having a go at betting on the footy to make a profit.
I don't have any experience betting, so want to ask members if they think a profit can be made, and how might be the best way to go about it.

What I'm thinking of, is to select perhaps up to 3 games in each round to potentially bet on, and of those to have one as a stand out early in the round. If I'm successful in this game, I hold off betting till the following round, and if not double up on the next selected game in the same round.

Obviously this "system" will come unstuck with too many consecutive losses, but I would attempt to target the shorter prices, and even though I do follow certain team/s, I think I can be dispassionate about it.

Any thoughts or comments are welcome.

 

[Whos Ya Daddy]

Horrible ideal. You are basically running a martingale staking plan. Google it... it's a loser.

If you want to try and make a profit from gambling on the NRL you need to make bets that beat the market in the long run. Either though handicap analysis or betting good odds.

Frame a market for the games. Work out how likely a team is to win and convert it into odds. If the market odds offer value based on your ratings bet them.

Try and get good odds. If you only bet with the TAB you will probably lose. Have a few bookmakers and bet at the best odds.

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

I'm contemplating having a go at betting on the footy to make a profit.
I don't have any experience betting, so want to ask members if they think a profit can be made, and how might be the best way to go about it.

What I'm thinking of, is to select perhaps up to 3 games in each round to potentially bet on, and of those to have one as a stand out early in the round. If I'm successful in this game, I hold off betting till the following round, and if not double up on the next selected game in the same round.

Obviously this "system" will come unstuck with too many consecutive losses, but I would attempt to target the shorter prices, and even though I do follow certain team/s, I think I can be dispassionate about it.

Any thoughts or comments are welcome.

:roll: :lol:

You goose!

Why else do people bet on it!

 

[Poul]

Thanks for the tips Daddy. I'll look into it more closely (Although it has meant that I've missed out on a win with the Dogs tonight )

Baron, Thanks for the kind words :sarcasm: . It has been my observation that most people don't bet to make a profit, rather they bet to WIN. Sure, making a profit is a product of winning, but they are NOT the same thing.
I'm sure everybody when placing a bet HOPES to make a profit, but it appears to me that it is the prospect of WINNING that motivates people, and the "thrill" of having done so, which causes them to come back for more. Any tips?

 

[Efresh]

I think you'll need a better system than that, the guys who make the market do this for their job. Unless you take the same approach, they will win in the long run. But if you are confident, redraw your mortgage and put the whole lot on a sure thing next weekend. Might as well profit big when making a profit is so easy!

 

[goosie]

hey poul here is a tip get on the panthers at $2.15 to beat cowboys

 

[stormbati]

I like the system where you double up every time you lose. But I guess its hard to with odds changing every week.
If you had a big enough bank account you could cover your loss with every bet.

 

[Tommy Smith]

Its very hard! Truth is you just never know what will happen.

I had a multi this week $500 which would have paid $9000. Every leg came off except one...Saints with a 7.5 point headstart vs Souths.

Needless to say at 20 nil (effectively a 27.5 point headstart with 45 min to go) i thought i was 9k richer.

Moral of the story is, absolutely anything can and generally always does happen! So its best to just save your money and spend it on something nice lol

 

[langpark]

Well said Tommy. You'll never see a betting agency going broke.

Also, the very reason most of us love sport (its unpredictability) is the very reason why you can NEVER beat the system long-term...

 

[SpaceMonkey]

I like the system where you double up every time you lose. But I guess its hard to with odds changing every week.
If you had a big enough bank account you could cover your loss with every bet.

It doesn't actually work, Read this for explanation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

In addition to that the assumptions that system is based on assume a 2:1 return or better, meaning that you're going to have to always bet on the outsider. All it needs is a couple of weeks of no upsets and you're going to be seriously stretching your financial envelope.

You can't beat the bookies with simple systems like that, otherwise loads of people with deep pockets would already have put the betting industry out of business.

 

[Chicken_Hunter]

I think it is impossible to win anything when gambling. Well it is for me. I can't for the life of me score any decent wins hey.. My sportsbet account is currently at about $13, but has been up and down all year most I got it up to was around $200. I am probably the worlds worst punter.

 

[coolsteve]

na, got you covered ,here

 

[Fast Eddie]

Well if you have a decentish bankroll it can be quite comfortable to make a reasonable take. Sounds simple but really all you need is a lot of patience, too often you'll go for the too many leg multis, gamble on an outsider or things like halftime/fulltime or points start. You just have to scale it back on what odds you take and like suggested having a couple of different bookmakers.

 

[Pyroz]

There's two ways to bet: for fun, with a set limit per week or per month. You have a go at the NRL, or the dogs, if you lose you laugh, if you win tell your mates, if you lose don't tell the wife.

The other is very seriously, very carefully.

You paper bet for a month. You spreadsheet your winnings and losses. You figure out your system.

if you win you tell no one and smile when people ask how much you lost this week.

 

[diggo]

I had plenty of success this year backing favourites minus a small handicap on centrebet (pick your own line).

I stuck with the big guns.. Melbourne, Manly, Brisbane and Dragons (earlier in the season). Usually had 2 bets on each team:

1. (-2.5)
2. (-4.5)

If they were a good price I would back them Hd-Hd as well. But the small handicaps give you much better odds (-4.5 is almost double the hd-hd price).

You need discipline. Most of the time it's too tempting to back a roughie. I just can't help myself. But the big money has to stay with the best teams.

 

[Dakink]

I think you'll need a better system than that, the guys who make the market do this for their job. Unless you take the same approach, they will win in the long run. But if you are confident, redraw your mortgage and put the whole lot on a sure thing next weekend. Might as well profit big when making a profit is so easy!

Lol sure way to end up broke.:crazy::crazy:

 

[Karl]

Gambling properly is so bloody complicated, I just don't have the time to learn the language, let alone properly understand the mathematics of it.

 

[Frances the Mute]

Also look at it this way, TAB has teams upon teams of experts designed to beat you, how is the average mug going to compete with that in the long term?

 

[Dakink]

Its about finding the markets where you believe they are offering odds higher than they should be.

I like straight up bets. I also dont mind the odd multi (yes I know the Bookies love Mulits cause it makes them a shit load of money). but with multis I have strict criteria the games have to meet to unclusde them. I run a few multi streams with their own seperate criteria (and seperate sub bank rolls) and yes i do include the hail mary as one of the streams. The Hail Mary I love cause you can Place a small amount on it and if it ever its you have a sudden massive increasew to your bank roll!

Between Discipline, Bank Roll management and making sure you have as much information as you can, you can make money sport betting. Though there are numerous false hope websites and schemes out there (as in Martingale staking plan and laying the draw).

I find I get enjoyment out if it, cause even if I have to bet against my team if the opposition meets my criteria, I win either way

 

[eozsmiles]

Also look at it this way, TAB has teams upon teams of experts designed to beat you, how is the average mug going to compete with that in the long term?

The average mug can't beat them. But only the average mug would try to beat them at their own game. We need these mugs so that the bookies can make a market. Without the mugs every smart chance would be $1.01.
I've always thought that people concentrate more on the selections and prices than their own bank and that they'e got it the wrong way around. There is a saying in racing that anyone can pick a winner but it's leaving the track with the money that is hard.
Anyone that is into stats could form some strategies for footy betting - so long as they have a decent bank and a decent staking plan they can then make money. Their is a smart punter out there at the moment that solely bets on first score type. And it's not John Elias