For the Tigers to score their 18 points yesterday it took a Canberra team to miss 51 tackles.
Saints will not grant them that much of an opportunity, in reality Saints will be lucky to miss 20 tackles in the game.
Wests completed 25 of 42 sets, as opposed to Saints 28 of 34, if the Tigers make anywhere near the 17 errors (as opposed to Saints 8) they did against Canberra at the wrong end of the field against Saints they will be shut out quicker than they can say "holy sh*t, I think we are down 14-0 and being held for 5 tackles within our own half for the better part of 20 minutes now!".
They also got the rub of the green penalty wise yesterday, Saints in what might be called an undisciplined performance gave away 6 and received only 2, lightning will not strike twice in that regard.
It took Wests an eternity to put the nail into the coffin against the Raiders, potentially because they Raiders were a little bit tired, another luxury that Wests cannot bank on occurring, Saints will not fatigue like the Raiders did.
Wests are hard to pick, one week they can be erratic, the next week they can be mesmerizing, if they turn up and turn it on there is always the potential for them to win in a tight one, but the "old tricks" of the flick pass and stupid offloads will not work here, a flick pass on the inside will get the recipient smashed and offloads thrown willy nilly out the back are likely to either be pounced on or result in a loss of ground, soldier football from side to side in an effort to unsettle the defence will most likely result in a loss of ground.
If the Tigers turn up, chance their arm and a few things go their way and they defend beyond their capability then they can challenge Saints, BUT if they make a few mistakes, as they are prone to do, get behind and their heads go down they could find themselves behind by double digits, pinned on their own line and becomming frustrated which will only result in more mistakes, they have leaked 113 more points than Saints this year and that could be a telling factor.
Then there is that other factor, Gasnier, as disjointed as it will be for him first up if he plays, Tigers centres of the past have literally had nightmares about him, Chris Lawerence may be bitch slapped and badly for the first time in a long time, Scott and Cooper / Stanley are defensive specialists, but Gasnier in the past has stepped, jinked, turned and span his way through impossible situations, his addition provides potency on both sides of the field, however, Saints must not fall back into the 2005 habit of "well this is going nowhere, throw it out to Gaz and see what he does", they have won without him, they can win with him, but they don't need to try change the world first game out.
Saints by 14.
