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1.0 - The Theory
Teams competiting in the NRL Grand Final of any given season would have satisfied at least one of two requirements:
2.0 - The Evidence
The system accurately 'chose' a grand finalist five times out of seven under Rule One (winning a final in the previous season), and six times out of seven under Rule Two (top five defense in previous season). Collectively, the system accurately chose at least one grand finalist six times out of seven, and both grand finalists four times out of seven.
However, the system failed to predict either of the 2002 Grand Finalists based on data from the 2001 season. That season, both the Warriors and Roosters exited the finals after failing to win a game. In addition, the Roosters' defense conceded 101 tries, making them the sixth-ranked outfit in the premiership.
The system merely reduces the number of possible grand finalists from fifteen to approximately eight, and is therefore potentially no more meaningful than a random selection of eight teams.
The system failed to account for the rise of the Roosters in 2002 or the Panthers in 2003. Both teams won the premiership that season but failed to score in the previous season's data.
Five premiership winning teams featured in the Top 5 defenses of the previous season, as opposed to just three premiership winning teams having a win in the previous season's finals series.
The system only takes into account data from when the NRL began and therefore can only be based on limited data.
These teams satisfied both of the criterion and made the grand final in the following season - Melbourne (1999), Newcastle (2001), Parramatta (2001), Roosters (2003), Canterbury (2004) and North Queensland (2005). Of these teams, only Parramatta and the Cowboys lost their grand final. In Parramatta's case, they were playing another team that satisfied both of the criterion. The 2001 Grand Final is the only instance where this has occured.
4.0 - Conclusion
Not without its flaws, but it will be interesting to see how it works out in 2006. If the system is to be believed, at least one of these seven teams will certainly make the grand final (with 86% accuracy!):
Melbourne, Parramatta, Roosters, Brisbane, St George Illawarra, Wests Tigers, North Queensland
Teams competiting in the NRL Grand Final of any given season would have satisfied at least one of two requirements:
- They would have won at least one game of the previous season's finals series, and/or
- They would have been ranked as one of the top five defenses of the previous season in terms of tries conceded
2.0 - The Evidence
2.1 - RULE ONE - Teams that have won one game (minimum) in finals series of that year.
Team/s that qualified for the grand final in the season following the one listed are displayed in red bold
Team/s that qualified for the grand final in the season following the one listed are displayed in red bold
- 1998 - Brisbane, Canterbury, Parramatta, Roosters, Melbourne, Canberra
- 1999 - Canterbury, Parramatta, St George Illawarra, Cronulla, Melbourne
- 2000 - Canberra, Newcastle, Parramatta, Brisbane, Sydney Roosters
- 2001 - Cronulla, St George Illawarra, Newcastle, Parramatta, Brisbane
- 2002 - Roosters, St George Illawarra, Brisbane, Warriors, Cronulla
- 2003 - Melbourne, Warriors, Roosters, Penrith, Canterbury
- 2004 - Penrith, North Queensland, Melbourne, Roosters, Canterbury
- 2005 - Wests Tigers, Melbourne, St George Illawarra, Parramatta, North Queensland
2.2 - RULE TWO - Teams listed in Top 5 Defenses in terms of tries conceded
Team/s that qualified for the grand final in the season following the one listed are displayed in red bold. Only the top five teams are shown regardless of ties
Team/s that qualified for the grand final in the season following the one listed are displayed in red bold. Only the top five teams are shown regardless of ties
- 1998 - Brisbane (50), Parramatta (59), Melbourne (61), Newcastle (65), Roosters (65)
- 1999 - Parramatta (49), Cronulla (59), Brisbane (60), Roosters (64), Melbourne (66)
- 2000 - Brisbane (68), Parramatta (79), Cronulla (79), Canberra (82), Newcastle (91)
- 2001 - Parramatta (67), Cronulla (89), Brisbane (89), Canterbury (94), St George Illawarra (94)
- 2002 - Roosters (69), Bulldogs (72), Parramatta (74), Brisbane (76), Warriors (87)
- 2003 - Canterbury (73), Roosters (74), Canberra (80), Brisbane (80), Melbourne (85)
- 2004 - Roosters (64), St George Illawarra (72), Canterbury (85), North Queensland (91), Wests Tigers (91)
- 2005 - Melbourne (80), Parramatta (80), Roosters (83), Brisbane (85), St George Illawarra (91)
The system accurately 'chose' a grand finalist five times out of seven under Rule One (winning a final in the previous season), and six times out of seven under Rule Two (top five defense in previous season). Collectively, the system accurately chose at least one grand finalist six times out of seven, and both grand finalists four times out of seven.
However, the system failed to predict either of the 2002 Grand Finalists based on data from the 2001 season. That season, both the Warriors and Roosters exited the finals after failing to win a game. In addition, the Roosters' defense conceded 101 tries, making them the sixth-ranked outfit in the premiership.
The system merely reduces the number of possible grand finalists from fifteen to approximately eight, and is therefore potentially no more meaningful than a random selection of eight teams.
The system failed to account for the rise of the Roosters in 2002 or the Panthers in 2003. Both teams won the premiership that season but failed to score in the previous season's data.
Five premiership winning teams featured in the Top 5 defenses of the previous season, as opposed to just three premiership winning teams having a win in the previous season's finals series.
The system only takes into account data from when the NRL began and therefore can only be based on limited data.
These teams satisfied both of the criterion and made the grand final in the following season - Melbourne (1999), Newcastle (2001), Parramatta (2001), Roosters (2003), Canterbury (2004) and North Queensland (2005). Of these teams, only Parramatta and the Cowboys lost their grand final. In Parramatta's case, they were playing another team that satisfied both of the criterion. The 2001 Grand Final is the only instance where this has occured.
4.0 - Conclusion
Not without its flaws, but it will be interesting to see how it works out in 2006. If the system is to be believed, at least one of these seven teams will certainly make the grand final (with 86% accuracy!):
Melbourne, Parramatta, Roosters, Brisbane, St George Illawarra, Wests Tigers, North Queensland