IMO the winner will come from:
- Maldivian: Clearly the one to beat, impressive run to beat Miss Finland last start over 2000m WFA and drops plenty of weight. Drawn barrier one, would probably prefer to be over but at least its single digits. Creates his own luck the way it races but a couple of queries - can it win without getting the lead as easy as the last few? and can it run the extra 400m. I think the answer on both is yes, can only really see it getting beat if it gets stuck in traffic. Would prefer to get 5's about it as i think if the tempo's right on it could be a risk at such a short quote, if it stays around this level i'll try and hunt out the trifecta.
- Master O'Reilly: I've been a fan since its run on Anzac Day and its improved another level in its last few runs. Looks a great Melbourne Cup prospect, but has plenty of form around the mile and a half. A typical swooper so always needs plenty of luck as was best seen in the JRA Cup, but when the pace is true theres few who can finish off a distance race better than Master O. Will look like all is lost running last until late in the race. IMO one of the only horses that may be capable of beating Maldivian without him getting unlucky in the run - if the pace is on. Also carrying no weight.
- Douro Valley: Has form around Maldivian but has been a real money muncher in the past. Has been in great form recently though, I just think that its peak isn't in the same league as Maldivian who potentially has another gear on last weeks win which would see it win with some ease.
Outside chances to Scenic Shot, Princess Coup and Eskimo Queen. I've gone off Eskimo Queen recently but it must be respected and obviously included in the multiples.
I don't think Maybe Better will win, it will finish the race off well and finish in the top 5 but the Melbourne has been the target all along and they won't push this all the way as a penalty could cripple its chances in the main event. Cinque Cento is a horse the others will want to push Maldy at the front to give them a chance of beating it but can only really win in a soft pace and if it gets it the race is all Maldivian's.
So who does everyone like after the barrier draw?
- Maldivian: Clearly the one to beat, impressive run to beat Miss Finland last start over 2000m WFA and drops plenty of weight. Drawn barrier one, would probably prefer to be over but at least its single digits. Creates his own luck the way it races but a couple of queries - can it win without getting the lead as easy as the last few? and can it run the extra 400m. I think the answer on both is yes, can only really see it getting beat if it gets stuck in traffic. Would prefer to get 5's about it as i think if the tempo's right on it could be a risk at such a short quote, if it stays around this level i'll try and hunt out the trifecta.
- Master O'Reilly: I've been a fan since its run on Anzac Day and its improved another level in its last few runs. Looks a great Melbourne Cup prospect, but has plenty of form around the mile and a half. A typical swooper so always needs plenty of luck as was best seen in the JRA Cup, but when the pace is true theres few who can finish off a distance race better than Master O. Will look like all is lost running last until late in the race. IMO one of the only horses that may be capable of beating Maldivian without him getting unlucky in the run - if the pace is on. Also carrying no weight.
- Douro Valley: Has form around Maldivian but has been a real money muncher in the past. Has been in great form recently though, I just think that its peak isn't in the same league as Maldivian who potentially has another gear on last weeks win which would see it win with some ease.
Outside chances to Scenic Shot, Princess Coup and Eskimo Queen. I've gone off Eskimo Queen recently but it must be respected and obviously included in the multiples.
I don't think Maybe Better will win, it will finish the race off well and finish in the top 5 but the Melbourne has been the target all along and they won't push this all the way as a penalty could cripple its chances in the main event. Cinque Cento is a horse the others will want to push Maldy at the front to give them a chance of beating it but can only really win in a soft pace and if it gets it the race is all Maldivian's.
So who does everyone like after the barrier draw?
