I think the person that deserves it is Darius Boyd, simply because all of the Dragons' attack centres around him essentially...(not a criticism at all Dragons fans; Panthers and Eels fans feel the same (Luke Walsh and Jarryd Hayne)) and also because he has been consistently brilliant this year.
Because the Dragons are in a form slump though, and Darius isn't on his A-game either, I would say it's a throw-up between these;
Lachlan Coote
Josh Dugan
Billy Slater
Jarryd Hayne
If not Boyd then definitely one of those four.....if Jarryd plays like he did at the end of last year from now on he'll win it pretty easily (also a mirror of who will get the Dally M medal).
If Jarryd goes quiet, then my tip would be Josh Dugan-Slater has been a husk of his former self (but not his fault at all), and Coote I think is just outclassed by Dugan.