Here is some bad news for Union, League and AFL, nothing is going to change for a long, long time.
Lets start with Union. Last year they had the world cup, the biggest piece of exposure their likely to get in Australia and what came of it? Super 12 lost its free to air TV rights and they failed to sign anyone from league. Union had to bribe Lote who was willing to play league for less money. That reflects very badly on the code. Then there was the Andrew Johns saga, another big loss for Union. Player numbers and crowds might be up slightly, but they go up every year for each code. Basically the big financial "war chest" and world cup exposure that was supposed have a massive effect on Union hasn't done much at all.
Union is talking about expanding now to Perth or Melbourne. It won't work. People use the Brisbane Lions as an example of how a new code can penetrate. They are actually a good example of how a code can fail to penetrate. People don't realize that in Brisbane people like the Lions, not AFL. Obviously having won 3 premierships and going for history this year, the Lions will get a lot of support. Swimmers get support at the Olympics, but its because of their success, not the popularity of the sport.
In Brisbane games of AFL not involving the Lions get virtually no coverage and absolutely no ratings. The game of AFL hasn't really made a big impact and thats with a side thats made history. You will see a big dent in the "AFL's popularity" when the Lions start losing. Even when you compare the Lions themselves to the Broncos ratings and media coverage they are dwarfed. The AFL grand final involving the Lions was outrated by the NRL final in Brisbane without the Broncos. That tells you how tough it is.
Union will try and play the international card when it expands, but that counts for little. Look at the popularity of soccer in Australia. Unfortunately for Union, what matters most to Australian's is the tradition of supporting your local club or tribe and going to the football on Sunday afternoons. Fans get most passionate and attached to their club and it becomes a part of their life. What do Union fans do on Sunday afternoons? Nothing. They are irrelevant in the biggest part of the football season in Australia. The sport lacks any kind of club tradition. You can't go to the footy every week, their are few passionate tribal rivalries. As a Union fan you can go to a few Super 12 games and maybe a test each year. Its just not the same going and seeing your club every week. If you don't believe me ask an AFL fan.
Things will stay very much the same as they are now in terms of popularity of the codes. People support what they are brought up on. They don't really choose which game they like best. Is it a coincidence that all the people in Victoria like AFL best? Unfortunately for all sports it is very hard to overcome this. People have had a chance to see Union for 100 years all across Australia. They haven't embraced it, why would they start now? The best you can really do is grow very very slowly and consolidate what you have. As a fan you need accept what you have because things aren't going to change for a very long time.
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