Formline heading into the World Cup

[titoelcolombiano]

How do we see it following the last three seasons of internationals building towards the world cup?

Australia and NZ seem to be a class above the rest with a flip of a coin between them.

Next level down seems to be England, Samoa and Tonga.

Next is PNG, Fiji & France (we need France playing regular internationals like the other nations do)

Cook Islands bring up the rear with Lebanon and unknown, but unlikely to do much of Moses is in the Kangaroos squad.

Resumes:

Aus
Pacific Cup title in 2024
3-0 Ashes series win

NZ
Pacific Cup titles in 2023 & 2025

Eng
3-0 series win v Tonga
2-0 series win v Samoa

Samoa
Pacific Cup finalist 2025

Tonga
Pacific Cup finalist 2024

PNG
Pacific Bowl titles 2023, 2024 & 2025

 

[yakstorm]

I'd agree with most of that summation, except for NZ. I'm honestly not sure what Kiwi side we will see turn up at the RLWC, with a lot of it possibly coming down to who's fit and who's not.

On their day, as we've seen, NZ can beat Australia, but at the same time when they're off, a Tonga or England can beat them. That said it was encouraging to see how they performed this Pacific Championship under Jones and it was nice seeing Dylan Brown step up.

It will be interesting to see how the pools are setup. It will play a big part in who will join Australia & NZ in the Semi Finals.

 

[Valheru]

There is not a flip of the coin between Australia and NZ, there is a large gulf.

The rise of Tonga and Samoa has weakened both Australia and NZ but far more the latter than the former.

Australia will win the WC without ever looking like losing a game. They may not even be behind at any stage in a game.

 

[Last Week]

There is not a flip of the coin between Australia and NZ, there is a large gulf.

The rise of Tonga and Samoa has weakened both Australia and NZ but far more the latter than the former.

Australia will win the WC without ever looking like losing a game. They may not even be behind at any stage in a game.

That's assuming that Australia play better than they have during the Ashes.

If Kev is the coach, I'm not confident he'll get Australia up where necessary and NZ could pull off a victory. If they're healthy of course.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

There is not a flip of the coin between Australia and NZ, there is a large gulf.

The rise of Tonga and Samoa has weakened both Australia and NZ but far more the latter than the former.

Australia will win the WC without ever looking like losing a game. They may not even be behind at any stage in a game.

Large gulf lol

Did you watch the last month of footy? Have you seen the Kiwi forward pack?

 

[adamkungl]

The only way England and to a lesser extent France will partially close the gap is by sacrificing some club footy next year.

The NRL will take players out midweek for Origin, and controversial as that is these days, people get over it for the greater good.
The Super League clubs have to allow players 3 weeks midseason, even if the comp does not pause.

England need to play a 3 match War of the Roses or Knights vs Exiles or whatever. England's Super League players need to be playing as a group at a higher intensity.
France at the same time could play a Celtic Invitational team which would provide them a stiffer contest than Wales or Ireland alone.

3 mid-season matches each, then an England v France game before flying over to Australia.

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

I'd agree with most of that summation, except for NZ. I'm honestly not sure what Kiwi side we will see turn up at the RLWC, with a lot of it possibly coming down to who's fit and who's not.

On their day, as we've seen, NZ can beat Australia, but at the same time when they're off, a Tonga or England can beat them. That said it was encouraging to see how they performed this Pacific Championship under Jones and it was nice seeing Dylan Brown step up.

It will be interesting to see how the pools are setup. It will play a big part in who will join Australia & NZ in the Semi Finals.

Yea that's exactly it... depth is the issue, especially in the halves. Add Hughes into the Pac Champs team and its a very good 17 (esp. if Kini is kept at fb and McLean goes back to centre). But lose either of the halves before the WC and it starts to get problematic.

England have gotta be concerned though. Well off the pace in the Ashes and while no doubt planning to be much better for the WC, they havent travelled well their last couple trips down here. Last GB tour in '19 was poor and I don't remember (?) them being that impressive in the last WC down here in '17 either. Could be wrong on that though...

But assuming most of their best are available, I'm picking both Samoa and Tonga to be better next year. Both have players to come in that weren't available - Crichton, Leniu, Olakauatu, Tupouniua amongst others, and Tonga will have a point to prove after letting down their supporters this year. And maybe someone to play for if Eli doesn't come back...

Lots can happen in 12mths obviously but England could exit at group stage if they dont get things sorted soon.

 

[adamkungl]

NZ depth isn't too bad now.

First choice backline has Kini, Mulitalo, McClean, Timoko, Isaako, Brown, Hughes.
Charnze can fill it at fullback, centre or five-eighth. Also got Nikorima and TMM for halves.

And if the Origin eligibility rules change next year that could open up a host of new options too.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Yea that's exactly it... depth is the issue, especially in the halves. Add Hughes into the Pac Champs team and its a very good 17 (esp. if Kini is kept at fb and McLean goes back to centre). But lose either of the halves before the WC and it starts to get problematic.

England have gotta be concerned though. Well off the pace in the Ashes and while no doubt planning to be much better for the WC, they havent travelled well their last couple trips down here. Last GB tour in '19 was poor and I don't remember (?) them being that impressive in the last WC down here in '17 either. Could be wrong on that though...

But assuming most of their best are available, I'm picking both Samoa and Tonga to be better next year. Both have players to come in that weren't available - Crichton, Leniu, Olakauatu, Tupouniua amongst others, and Tonga will have a point to prove after letting down their supporters this year. And maybe someone to play for if Eli doesn't come back...

Lots can happen in 12mths obviously but England could exit at group stage if they dont get things sorted soon.

England made the World Cup Final in 2017 and lost to a Kangaroos side containing Smith, Slater and Cronk by 6 points

 

[Thatwasnthighref]

England made the World Cup Final in 2017 and lost to a Kangaroos side containing Smith, Slater and Cronk by 6 points

Ok fair enough. My overriding memory of them back then was their semi v Tonga.

I was at that game and watched them give up 3 tries in less than 10mins and almost blow a 20pt lead.

 

[Perth Red]

If on current form (which may mean little come Oct next year) rankings would be imo
Aus
NZ
Samoa
England
Tonga
PNG
Fiji
Cook Islands
France
Lebanon

 

[Growthegame]

Australia over New Zealand on current form???

what are you considering as “current”?

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Aus & NZ at full strength are as close as they've ever been. NZ's depth is where they differ. Hughes hasn't been available for NZ since 2023 and the Kiwis have now run out of halves to pull out of retirement to cover for him.

2022: Aus win WC after beating NZ by just 2 points in the SF
2023: NZ win Pac Cup beating the Kangaroos
2024: Aus win Pac Cup beating NZ on the way
2025: NZ win Pac Cup, Aus sweep the Ashes

 

[Matua]

Aus & NZ at full strength are as close as they've ever been. NZ's depth is where they differ. Hughes hasn't been available for NZ since 2023 and the Kiwis have now run out of halves to pull out of retirement to cover for him.

2022: Aus win WC after beating NZ by just 2 points in the SF
2023: NZ win Pac Cup beating the Kangaroos
2024: Aus win Pac Cup beating NZ on the way
2025: NZ win Pac Cup, Aus sweep the Ashes

When they change the origin rules next year we'll have Luai and Katoa to come in when Hughes gets ruled out by the judiciary for looking at someone sideways/Storm send him off for surgery on his left toenail.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

When they change the origin rules next year we'll have Luai and Katoa to come in when Hughes gets ruled out by the judiciary for looking at someone sideways/Storm send him off for surgery on his left toenail.

Good point, maybe the Aussie judiciary need to trump up some charges against McLean, Brown, JFH, Leota, Tapine & Whyte too

 

[Matua]

Good point, maybe the Aussie judiciary need to trump up some charges against McLean, Brown, JFH, Leota, Tapine & Whyte too

 

[dogz08]

Is there any decent Kiwi halves coming though atm?

 

[yakstorm]

If Kev is the coach, I'm not confident he'll get Australia up where necessary and NZ could pull off a victory. If they're healthy of course

If Walters is still coach, it may mean we see some more defections to the likes of Tonga & Samoa.

Staggs & Koloamatangi going back to Tonga and Tino going to Samoa would definitely help the tournament.

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

Aus & NZ at full strength are as close as they've ever been. NZ's depth is where they differ. Hughes hasn't been available for NZ since 2023 and the Kiwis have now run out of halves to pull out of retirement to cover for him.

Yeah Hughes is a worry, but Kodi Nikorima would be useful replacement if necessary, and behind that pack, makes it a lot easier.

 

[undertaker]

I'd agree with most of that summation, except for NZ. I'm honestly not sure what Kiwi side we will see turn up at the RLWC, with a lot of it possibly coming down to who's fit and who's not.

On their day, as we've seen, NZ can beat Australia, but at the same time when they're off, a Tonga or England can beat them. That said it was encouraging to see how they performed this Pacific Championship under Jones and it was nice seeing Dylan Brown step up.

It will be interesting to see how the pools are setup. It will play a big part in who will join Australia & NZ in the Semi Finals.

Might want to also add Fiji.

They eliminated New Zealand in the 2017 RLWC quarter-finals, and came agonisingly close to doing the same in the 2022 RLWC quarter-finals before a late try from Jordan Rapana broke an 18-all deadlock.