From a RL point of view the best deal is definitely 4 games going to Foxtel (probably 5 in NSW/QLD including Friday nights). It reduces the number of AFL matches telecast on FTA while not being a strong draw for additional pay TV subscriptions in the northern states. The flip side is that it will likely increase the number of Foxtel subscriptions in the southern states. This of course would have a flow on effect in making Pay TV RL telecasts (such a Monday Night Football) a lot more accessible to the general public – ie. the higher the penetration of Pay TV the less important the question of FTA vs Pay TV telecasts becomes. The overall effect is that AFL gets less exposure everywhere while RL gets less competition for the hearts and minds in the northern states and possibly more exposure in the southern states on the back of AFL driven pay TV migration.
The best result for the AFL is all games on FTA everywhere. Yes, it’d be a disaster for 7 and 10 as they’d certainly get thrashed in the ratings on most occasions. But with the money in the bank, the actual ratings don’t matter to the AFL. What matters is the game becomes hard to ignore. The casual viewer won’t be able to help but catch the odd five minutes here, or a quarter there. If the game is close and exciting and there’s nothing else interesting on then they might stick with it to the end. That’s all the AFL want, a background hum where people get use to the game being there. And after five years of that constant exposure they hope to find that odd five minutes or quarter has turned into a following. Not rabid, life long supporters. Just a large slice of new casual followers who are happy to sit down and watch a full game every other week.
As I said, the initial ratings would be a disaster for 7 and 10. But don’t assume that means they’ll never do a deal like this again. The biggest pain is going to be inflicted in year one. But by year five, through the constant exposure and the almost inevitable increase in casual followers, there may very well be enough of an audience to make it worthwhile continuing. That is the danger for RL. Nein and the NRL will have plenty of laughs at the AFL, 7 and 10’s expense next year but if it results in enough of a foothold to keep the full court press going in years 6-10 then the contest is going to suddenly become a lot more serious. That’s what the AFL want and if they can manage to drag 7 and 10 along kicking and screaming then it’s unlikely to ever have to backtrack. If RL and its media partner are smart about this they’ll be pushing their product as hard as possible into the AFL’s home territory to even up the balance. What they lose in the north in the long term they need to aim to gain in the south. That means taking the same initial disastrous loses and ridicule that the AFL and its media partners will take. But will that ever happen with Nein by our side? Again, that’s the danger for RL.
Leigh
