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Gambling vs Punting

veggiepatch1959

First Grade
Messages
9,841
After all the furore over the past month regarding Tom Waterhouse sticking his nose into Rugby League, here's my two bob's worth.
Most critics of Tom Waterhouse state "f**k gambling", "It kills individuals and families" and so on. However, no one has said boo about the bet365.com advertisement which has been aired during free-to-air NRL games.
I have stated in another thread that, again, no one has a whinge about licenced premises advertising on FTA about their "spacious gaming lounges", etc.
Meanwhile, back to gambling vs punting. Gambling is a form of wagering where one "invests" money on an event with an uncertain outcome based on random results. Such forms of wagering include pokies, keno, lotto and bingo.
When compared to punting, i.e. horse, trots and greyhound racing, and sports betting (NRL, EPL, tennis, golf, etc.) there is a major difference!
Randomness versus statistical trends.
Have anyone ever seen a form guide for a poker machine? What was its last five payouts and when? No. Historical keno and lotto results are readily available on the internet but what purpose do they serve when such gaming is supposedly a random event? With keno, the 20 numbers from 1 through to 20 have as much probability as occurring as any other 20 numbers on any given draw. Same with lotto...previous draws have diddly squat influence on future draws.
With sports betting, especially horse racing, we have available copious amounts of data which will point to a potential winner through publications and the internet. Of course, where a sporting event had associated betting, there is always the potential for the criminal element to influence the participants into swaying the results in their favour. However, statistics will provide a win compared to a random event.
In summary, we have informed betting (horse racing, sports betting, etc.) versus uninformed betting (pokies, keno, lotto, etc.).
The punter has control on his/her choices rather than those who persue random gaming options, unless they go mystery bets, names, numbers or saddlecloth colours...idiots.
That's all from me and feel free to discuss.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
When a friend of mine is asked what he does he replies with "trade sports, gamble on the stock exchange".

I like the informed betting vs uninformed betting summation, although your examples are stereotypes and not necessarily true.
 

Parra

Referee
Messages
24,900
It's all gambling. You can be smarter at it or not, doesn't change what it is.

Bookies margin, tote takeout, rake, poker machine percentage - these are all the same thing.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
It's all gambling. You can be smarter at it or not, doesn't change what it is.

Bookies margin, tote takeout, rake, poker machine percentage - these are all the same thing.
Let me bet with you then, you can hold the bets at the bookies odds and let's see how long you last.
 

Parra

Referee
Messages
24,900
You are confident. What is you long-term rate of return?

It would hardly be a reasonable experiement though. No point in any bookie holding bets from one punter, particularly an educated one.

Tell you what - take a fictional $100, post your bets here each week and see how long you last. Your target is to maintain your rate of return and not go broke.



But all that is an aside. It is still gambling. You can be a winner, doesn't change a thing.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
You missed the point, I wasn't beating my chest at what a phenomenal handicapper I am.
 

cleary89

Coach
Messages
16,510
Def agree, i was a winning poker player (only about 6k) and put hours into studying the game, hand histories, opponents etc.

Use to have the argument with people if its so random why are the top players consistently winning. There'd be more than 5000 pro poker players, how many pro pokies players are there? How many pro keno players are there?

While horse racing and sports betting are a bit different (betting against other people v betting against a professional bookie) numerous people have shown it can be profitable long term. Unfortunately, people watch a documentary on one of them and think they can put up 1k and do the same. Dont understand the effort that needs to be put in to be profitable long term.
 

Parra

Referee
Messages
24,900
Gambling with positive expected value is no guarantee of any particular win.

Gambling with negative expected value is no guarantee of any particular loss. Just because it is -EV doesn't make it random either.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
Gambling with positive expected value is no guarantee of any particular win.

Gambling with negative expected value is no guarantee of any particular loss. Just because it is -EV doesn't make it random either.
+EV - variance = profit
 

Parra

Referee
Messages
24,900
more to it than that.

Bankroll management would be one big thing. And brutal honesty. Not many punters would place enough bets to really know. They look at the balance increasing and assume that is all that matters. Poker players are notorious for this. Until they step up a level and lose the lot.
 

WYD

Juniors
Messages
1,952
This thread makes me sad

Spongebob009.gif
 

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