Fiveandahalfstar was unplaced in it's only start on the heavy,so it can go around without mine,especially against battle hardened stayers who relish heavy tracks..5.5star laying at $3.85 on Betfair ATM looks a good bet IMO..
I don't know why James would be concerned when his mare is 2 from 2 on the slow..Never started on the heavy,but a NZ slow track would be pretty comparable to an Ausssie heavy.
Sweet Idea has won a Gp2 on the heavy,so she couldn't have been too uncomfortable in it..Snitzel won his only Gp1 in the Oakleigh Plate on a heavy track beating Takeover Target so her bloodline & race record says she is very effective on the heavy..
Pierro will be my anchor as he is a dead set duck..
The Big 6 has a guaranteed $1 million pool on NSW Tab so i'll be playing that..
5 Gp1's..Bring it on..
Agreed, it's always a fantastic day.
Hey boys just been doing a little investigating into the breeding for the Slipper in case it's a wet track. Here goes
1/ Criterion (c Sebring x Mica's Pride, by Bite the Bullet (USA) ? From the first crop of Sebring, who won a Golden Slipper on a heavy track and he has two stakes-winning siblings in Varenna Miss and Silently, who were both able to win on rain affected ground. His mother Mica's Pride didn't run on the wet, but was bred to handle it as her sire Bite the Bullet was a noted sire of wet trackers.
Every reason to think he'd handle it and possibly excel in it.
2/ Fast 'n' Rocking (c Fastnet Rock x For the Good Times, by Hennessy (USA)) ? Five starts on good tracks and hasn't won, although was second in the Blue Diamond so has ability. Fastnet Rock is statistically a better dry sire, his 15.8 strike rate falling to 12.6 in the wet and there is nothing in his female family to suggest wet track prowess, so you'd be hopeful rather than confident.
3/ Kuroshio (c Exceed and Excel x Arctic Drift (USA), by Gone West - Only heavy run was worst run to date when seventh in Silver Slipper, although that was also first Sydney run, so maybe forgive. Exceed and Excel is a better dry track sire, his strike rate falling from 13.8 in dry to 11.9 in wet, that said there are exceptions to every rule and Helmet did win the Champagne Stakeson a heavy ten, but Kuroshio is no Helmet.
4/ Sidestep (pictured) (c Exceed and Excel x Dextrous, by Quest for Fame (GB) ? Another by Exceed and Excel, but this one is from a mare by Quest for Fame, a noted sire of mudlarks and his two stakes-winning three-quarter brothers Skilled and Ambidexter both won on slow and heavy.
Every reason to think he'll be comfortable enough in the wet.
5/ I'm All the Talk (c Stratum x Weekend Gossip, by Hussonet (USA) ? His sire Stratum won a Golden Slipper on a dead track, but didn't like it worse than that and as a sire his statistics drop from 13.7 in dry to 12 in the wet. Dam is a half-sister to top class miler Mentality, who also did not fancy wet so hard to think mud will bring out his best and was only fourth in Sliver Slipper on heavy.
6/ Whittington (c Tale of the Cat (USA) x Maha Chakri, by Beautiful Crown (USA)- Yet to see a worse track than dead. Sire has not much between wet and dry stats and dam sire Beautiful Crown leans towards better dry trackers and dam didn't win in three starts slow and heavy. Tale of the Cat had the Slipper favourite Real Saga in 2009, who struggled on the heavy to finish fourth to Phelan Ready.
Hard to think the big wet will help the cause, although if it's a slog, he'd be one that would be strong at the finish as dam won Tassie Oaks over 2100m.
7/ Dothraki (c Mossman x Volantis, by Flying Spur) ? By a good wet track sire in Mossman whose strike rate rises from 11.3 in dry to 14.2 in wet and his best performers are usually adept in wet, so no surprise if he pulled out a better run than you might think from a good draw.
8/ Charlie Boy (c Myboycharlie (IRE) x Maritime, by Falbrav (IRE) ? His sire won three races on soft and heavy tracks as a 2yo in Europe and he looked happy enough making ground when third in Silver Slipper on heavy, so wet probably won't be a problem for him.
9/ Va Pensiero (c Stratum x Rosmarino, by Langfuhr (Can) - Two good runs and two terrible runs, he's as randomly stunning as a monkey with a taser! Nothing in pedigree to suggest he'll be a swimmer and which one of him shows up on Saturday is anybody's guess.
10/ Windjammer (c Bernardini (USA) x Ekali, by Torrential (USA) - By a young sire, so wet track stats not that meaningful, although has had four stakes-winners in Australia and none of them have been able to win on wet. Dam did win on slow and is by a sire whose name Torrential would suggest wet tracks, but that's not enough to make me think he can break his maiden here.
11/ Overreach (pictured) (f Exceed and Excel x Bahia, by Snippets) ? Hot favourite and form is fabulous, but yet to get her feet wet as hasn't see worse than dead, so that raises a question. We've talked about the sire, he's not really a wet sire as such and while her mum did win on a slow and is by a good wet track sire in Snippets, her-three-quarter brother in blood Reward for Effort won the Blue Diamond and then sank without a trace in the heavy track Slipper won by Phelan Ready.
You'd have to have a concern if the track is a bog as favourites have a habit of getting beaten when the floodgates open, but she does look head and shoulders above her rivals.
12/ Ruud Awakening (f Bernardini (USA) x Dawn Almighty, by Danehill (USA) ? Top class Kiwi, but nothing on the page suggests wet track prowess, so you'd have to take her on trust and you'd need a lot of it given the gate.
13/ Sweet Idea (f Snitzel x Flidais by Timber Country (USA) ? Won on the heavy in the Silver Slipper and not surprising as she's bred to get through it. Her sire has a very high 16.3 strike rate on dry which is even slightly better on wet 16.8 and her Mum was pretty average, but ran the best race of her life on wet ground to run third in an Adrian Knox. Her grand-mother Electronic was a Group I winner at a mile and a half and also adept in wet winning by seven at Randwick on the slow.
You can see why punters have rallied to her with the rain.
14/ Villa Verde (f Not a Single Doubt x Young and Free, by Kenmare (Fr) - Like Overreach, she has never seen worse than dead, but unlike Overreach her sire Not a Single Doubt has good wet stats his strike rate rising from 13.8 on dry to 16.4 on wet. Dam couldn't win on the wet and is from the family of Golden Slipper winner Hah Ha, who also didn't care for it, so could go either way.
15/ Guelph (pictured) (f Exceed and Excel x Camarilla, by Elusive Quality (USA) ? We've talked about the sire, but the female family is interesting here as her dam Camarilla won the Group I Sires Produce by a dominant two lengths on the heavy and grand-mother Camarena also a Group I winner of Queensland Derby on the wet, while other family members Sepoy, Mulaazem also winners on the wet.
If the rain keeps coming is bred to jump out of the ground in her first try at anything other than good.
16/ Romantic Moon (f More Than Ready (USA) x Tropical Affair, by Danehill (USA)- The last two heavy track Slippers have been won by the progeny of More Than Ready in Sebring and Phelan Ready so on that basis you have to consider, despite her failure in the Sliver Slipper on heavy. Drew the outside that day, was slow to jump and having first run back from a soft debut win in easy company, so might have needed that to season her a bit.
Her half-sister Matras was good on heavy and slow, so am prepared to give Romantic Moon another chance from an ideal draw.
You'd have to think on the heavy Overreach is a massive risk and Sweet Idea,Criterion and Side Step come right into this.
