yobbo84 said:
Ok. One last time for the simpletons. Souths NEVER said they would bring 40,000 of their own supporters to the Tigers game, only that there would be a crowd of 40,000 at Telstra - probably 50/50.
Good for them. I never said that they said they would bring 40k supporters.
yobbo84 said:
Now seeing as the crowd was 32,000 on the weekend, with probably 5k Roosters fans, I'd say their prediction was pretty accurate.
Firstly it's impossible to say the split between Souths and East fans. Having said that I assume you were there and therefore in a better position to make the estimate than me so I don't press this point in particular.
Secondly you have to account for the number of Souths fans at Telstra on the weekend who only (or mostly) attend home games. It's obvious that fans (of all clubs) attend home games in far higher numbers than away games. Season tickets are an important, if not exclusive, reason for this.
Thirdly you'd have to assume that more Souths fans would attend a derby against Easts than a game against Wests especially when the home derby also happens to be a potential semi final qualifier.
Fourthly the late notice in change of venue would probably have discouraged many Wests Tigers fans from attending, as well as the loss of oppurtunity of the game being played at their spiritual home. The late change would've made it hard for plenty of Souths fans to get to the game too.
After all that your "32k at Telstra for Souths/Easts means that there would've been 40k at Telstra for Wests/Souths" argument look pretty slim.
Finally there's an argument that even if there's a potential 40k crowd (which I obviously don't think there was) the Wests Tigers would not be any position to reliably expect that number and therefore any decision based upon this estimate would be fairly risky. No doubt they'd get more than they could've got at Leichhardt but the club obviously values playing their games there and consequently wanted a very good reason to switch the venues. The fact that the game
might get 40k was evidently not enough for them.