How well will the Canberra Raiders do in 2012 ?

[anjado]

following on from the Brisbane Broncos one, i thought i would do two teams a week.

Canberra will be looking to bounce back from a poor season last season, they are quite strong, in my opinion they are certainly a top 8 side on paper.

Looking at the squad, You have one of the best 5 fullbacks in the NRL. You also have a supremely talented winger in Ferguson and two very good borderline rep centre's in Croker and Thompson. Robinson is really the only weakness in the outside backs it is a shame they couldn't keep Vidot.

The halves there is a question mark over both Campese is coming back after two bad injuries so he might not quite be the same players. Williams looked to be a talented young player but could suffer second year syndrome. If they both play at there best especially Campese who before he was injured was arguably the form player in the NRL, Canberra could be quite formidable this season.

The forward pack is easily one of the strongest in competition, you have 2 rep standard front rowers in Shillington and Learoyd-Lahrs, you also have 2 borderline rep props in White and Tilse who was great last season.

Backrow Fensom is a workaholic and should be pushing for rep honours this season if he keeps up his enormous work rate. Harrison is a bit of a worry he needs to recapture some of the form he had a couple of years ago when he was very damaging, the other back rower will also do a job whether it is Picker or Thurling.

Hooker is probably the biggest concern, Buttriss isn't an awful player he is just a solid first grader in my opinion. Compared to the other hooker's in the NRL he isn't up to that standard. Signing Shaun Berrigan could help though he could do a Nathan Fien type role for the Raiders.

Canberra will also have one of the strongest benches in the NRL. The Raiders will have two quality prop's on the bench meaning they shouldn't lose any momentum when the starting two need a spell. You have a guy who could be a huge x-factor and bring major impact off the bench in Papalii add in the craft and experience of Shaun Berrigan and that is one very good bench.

The major problem with the Raiders is the coaching situation. It really stinks of nepotism at a time when really the Raiders should be challenging for a premiership. If they don't challenge either this season or next season they may miss out completely on there window of opportunity.

So a lot will depend on the coaching, bringing in Justin Morgan may help he did a good job in England and may be a good young coach for the future. If Furner turns out to be a dud they really need to get rid of him as soon as possible because in the back of my mind if they had a John Lang or Daniel Anderson as coach i think the Raiders could be premiership contenders this season.

I think with the nepotism problem though the Raiders might underachieve, which would be a great shame for their fans and the game in general. For me the Raiders will finish between 6th and 11th. They really could be much higher.

So where do you think the Raiders will finish in 2012 ?

 

[Matt23]

10th

 

[dangerousdave]

Had to pick 12th-16th. But good form could seem them snag a finals birth in spots 7 or 8.

Agree that Campese is the big question mark

 

[Sans Souci Sainter]

They usually alternate between good and bad years.

8th-11th.

 

[mxlegend99]

I thought they were top 4 certainties in 2011. They had an amazingly young and talented backline that were all exciting attacking players, a solid halves pairing with the signing of Orford that should have been great once Campese was fit, and arguably the best forward pack in the competition. They just couldn't get their shit together though.

So based on how they under performed in 2011, I'm leaning toward a 9th to 12th place finish. But they've got the players to do much better then that.

 

[Proud2BeCanberran]

7-12th

On paper, we can match it with any team. However, we have an ordinary coach in charge of the club. Ordinary is perhaps generous.

 

[aussies1st]

This is the even year so Raiders should make the 8 going on recent history. And if it is like previous times then we'll suck it up for most of the year before Campo finally regains his touch and leads us into the 8.

McCrone will probably start at halfback who I don't have much faith in with last play options in particular inside the opposition half. If he becomes a problem then we have to hope Furner has the balls to drop him and going by past years we could be in for a long season.

Supposedly we are working on our defensive, that has been an issue for a few seasons now. If true then that will be a good starting point.

Overall the side definitely has enough talented players in there, if things click together is the question.

 

[Raider_69]

A bad year for the raiders is always followed by a good year
take it to the bank, be it in 8th spot or 1st, we will be playing finals football in 2012.

If Campese and Dugan play every game in the season, good chance we're a top 4 side
if they miss significant time like they did last season, we'll be 5th-8th and probably break our one in, one out finals series pattern

 

[Horrie Is God]

When is Terry Campese due back from injury?..

Before Origin?..

 

[Warrior@Heart]

9th, not bothered by statistical patterns that suggest that every second year the raiders make the eight. They will beat the Dragons at home though.

 

[Raiderdave]

much better then 2011

;-)

 

[Raider_69]

They will beat the Dragons at home though.

we'll beat them at home too.

4 byes rules

 

[Loudstrat]

You cant blame Campo's absence for their poor 2011. For mine their pack badly misfired. People rave about Fensom, and to a lesser extent Picker. TLL, Shillington and Tilse spearheaded a great finals run in 2010. Add a test enforcer to that and that pack should be a killer. It wasnt. Why?

Who knows. Why didnt Souffs pack fire (going by the 2010 finals the Raiders crapped on the Bunnies 6)? Why didnt Penrith back up a great 2010 with better form than they did? Why did the premiers forget how to win footy games?

Good roster on paper, although all the chatter is that Dugan is contract hunting. On top of a crap season, preceeded by a crap end to the finals, does not suggest a strong and confident start to the year. I have no idea what they will extract from last season, but it sure as hall aint game plans and coaching genius.

Finals will be a miracle.

 

[runatme]

10th-14th

lol@furner

 

[Ladmate]

Top 4. I see big years from most of the squad, with Campese making a big claim for NSW no.6.

 

[AlwaysGreen]

Well miss the 8 because we drop far too much simple ball, especially in one out forward hitups, and we miss too many one on one tackles close to the line. Tezza Campese is a very good player but he's not consistent enough. The Dugan has to get tougher to make an impact, too much time on the sideline for the Great King of Queanbeyan.

And our record at home is not good enough. Canberra stadium should be an icy fortress, in the last few years it's been too easy to win there for non St George Illawarra based sides. FFS, even the Homebush Rabbletohs beat us there last year.

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

5th or 6th.

 

[Spot On]

Bottom half unless Campese plays well for a lot of the season.

 

[RedVDave]

we'll beat them at home too.

4 byes rules

Fortunatley for us we only play you once this year!!

 

[NAS]

Canberra had massive injury problems last year. Not only were they without a number of players for long stretches, they were without a number of their very best players for long stretches.

1) Campese played half a game.
2) Dugan was out for long periods and was never fit when he did play (people easily forget how good he was in that all stars game).
3) Shillington had pectoral problems all year.

Then they had other injuries and problems to the likes of Vidot, Picker, Miller etc.I also think that Joel Thompson was playing injured for most of the year too..There was also the fact that a huge amount of money was vested in Mat Orford, who never really came back from England.

But for mine, the biggest problem for Canberra last year, was this dilemma that they had between the experienced and the Youth. Orford v Sam Williams is a great example, but pales in significance to the fact that they dropped Travis Waddell to QLD Cup (thus making him ineligible for them for the year) in favour of Alan Tongue, who clearly went one year too long, and was a hard working lock, not a hooker.

But there were certain things in Canberra last year that people have overlooked. The primary one, was the very very good form of two players in an otherwise average side.

The first of those is Shaun Fensom. This bloke has that Hindmarsh/Parker quality about him. Underrated in attack, massive motor, and most notably can make a zillion tackles a game. If I were Ricky Stuart, I'd be looking at Fensom this year closely, especially now that Gallen seems to be destined for the front row. I'm aware that Greg Bird may be the logical choice for 13, but to my mind, he could fill in amply off the bench, and that Lock position should be reserved for a guy who can cover the defensive deficiencies left by our choice of hookers (both Farah and Ennis are great attacking players, but against that QLD side, they need help in defence).

The other player who came of age last year at Canberra was Josh McCrone. Always had the the talent this boy, and it simply took a little longer for him to grow into it. A very talented young player who was easily Canberra's most dominant in attack over the entire season.

I expect this year could be the break out year for a few other talented players down there. Near the top of that list is Jarrod Croker. People forget that he is still only a boy. He's taken some time to adjust to the defensive rigours of first grade, but he is improving. He's got good speed, and is still growing. I also expect Picker and Buttriss to have good years....Finally, if you haven't seen Josh Papaali play, you won't know how good he is capable of being.

I think Canberra are in for a big year this year. I don't subscribe to the rumours about Dugan and Furner not getting along. I think they have the side that is capable of replicating what the warriors did last year.

Top 4 with a bullet for mine.

And no, I'm not a Canberra supporter. It's just my opinion.