If you could start from the beginning

[Alehana]

Still only young, not allowed to bet, never done it before, but i was wondering, if you were to start betting on league all over again, ie first time at tab, would you see it as a long term, and only bet on the GUARANTEED games, (ie warriors and raiders away games, top of table versues bottom, kangaroos v kiwis) that you know for a fact you can win, and start betting of small, then once you've made money increase your bets, and altho u consistantely win, you only begin to win $10 at most, then as u bet more you get more

or

would you have just gone and taken a risk, and put a fairly big amount on it, or put a large amount on an underdog and hope it pays off (ie NSW in SOO 1)

 

[greenos]

NSW to win SOO 1 was somewhere around 2 bucks right?

Bigger risks you could take.

 

[watatank]

Still only young, not allowed to bet, never done it before, but i was wondering, if you were to start betting on league all over again, ie first time at tab, would you see it as a long term, and only bet on the GUARANTEED games, (ie warriors and raiders away games, top of table versues bottom, kangaroos v kiwis) that you know for a fact you can win, and start betting of small, then once you've made money increase your bets, and altho u consistantely win, you only begin to win $10 at most, then as u bet more you get more

or

would you have just gone and taken a risk, and put a fairly big amount on it, or put a large amount on an underdog and hope it pays off (ie NSW in SOO 1)

First rule with sports betting- there are no guarantees.

 

[murraymob]

2nd rule always remember rule 1

 

[Alehana]

2nd rule always remember rule 1

k, i c ur point, but i was more asking of what stlye to play, the safety long term stlye or the short term make or break game if you had your time again?

 

[watatank]

really depends on your approach to betting. if you are doing it for fun then it doesn't matter. if you are serious about it then money management is obviously a key approach.

 

[murraymob]

i like the multi betting your outlay is small say $5 to $20 and your return can vary on the amount of games you want to take a chance on

 

[Parra]

Learn the numbers - work out your edge, don't worry about picking winners - just make good bets, practice bankroll management, keep records, continually re-evaluate your thinking and continue to learn. Understand the long-term.

Even if you are 'only doing it for fun' - the best fun is making buckets of cash and there is no quick way, no long-shot method.

It's not a matter of playing it safe - it is a matter of doing it right.

 

[Alehana]

yeh i mean, betting doesn't really appeal to me, but i cant help but think of the possibilities and cause i studied alot of statistics at uni and school i think there must be some way to make money of this,

 

[watatank]

You want to use maths and statistics skills? Play poker.

 

[Alehana]

You want to use maths and statistics skills? Play poker.

i would, but, i'd rather bet on something that i have a small amount of knowledge on, i know a bit on league and other sports.

 

[Parra]

Do both - same principles apply. Hold'em poker can get very boring though. To paraphrase Homer Simpson - "Sports betting takes something great, and makes it even better"

I would love to see a book like "Sharp Sports Betting" for Australian sports & conditions. Decent info is thin on the ground - which means that someone with skill and dedication could do quite well. The key is information, and in an uneducated/immature market there must be some very good opportunities.

 

[ryanallen]

I only started 2 weeks ago with Sharks and Penrith.

I put 20 on sharks HT & Ft paying $$4.25 and 20 on sharks to win 1-12.
Sharks were under dog's but i still went with my gut.

Last week i went Brisbane in my multi as they were outirhgt favourites. But I didn't know half of Brisbane players were going to get injured.

If Brisbane had won i would have turned $5 itno $375. Even if you loose $5 its not a bad loss, though if you win $375 its a good gain.

I just go with my gut feeling.

 

[rabs]

Multis are the way to go, better dividends. You can back several multis backing against yourself to improve the odds. You need a system where a 50% success rate will give you a decent profit, plus I am convinced that you should only bet on footy when it's a two-horse race, why people bet on horses I'll never know

 

[Parra]

A 50% success rate will not give you a profit - you simply wont beat the juice/rake.

For even money chances where the odds are 1.90 (this is a standard starting point) you need to have a success rate of 52.6% just to break even.

For long-shots including parlays & multis the bookies rake or % is much higher - so over time you need to have a higher strike rate to overcome this disadvantage. They can be fun, but I wouldn't go throwing any decent money at them - sort of like lottery tickets. Over time the expected return is negative.

Again, with horses, a good punter is not trying to pick winners - he is trying to make bets where his edge is enough to turn a profit over the long run. For example, a horse that is paying 2/1, but should be 5/1, is a bet that should not be made - even though the horse may win. Conversely, each time you find a horse that should be 2/1, but is paying 5/1, you make the bet. This is where bankroll management comes in - you don't make a plunge. There is not guarantee that the horse will win - but over time, with this approach, you will show a profit.

 

[rabs]

I don't agree, my system returns a 40% profit on a 50% success rate
if 1 bet of 3 gets up (33%) the loss is less than 10%
when 2 out of 3 gets up the profit is 85%, these are based on my average dividends

 

[Tom Shines]

Also, don't bet on your team. It clouds your judgment. You will only do your dough. As a Souths and Manchester City fan, this approach is a must (except for games against Manchester United, big odds are offered there).

Once you get more experienced, there are certain games where alarm bells will go off. The price won't be right, or some other feeling will steer you away. Learn to trust this.

Only bet on markets you have knowledge in — for me, that's league and soccer. And maybe AFL.
Don't bet on baseball, tennis (except for the grand slams) or golf — results are just way too unpredictable to bet with any real confidence.

As for multis, Parra is right — all they do is take the bookies' edge and multiply it by however many legs you have. I'll only do them for watching a night's soccer on TV for instance, makes it a bit more fun. Only $20 or so at a time though.

I prefer taking chances on the line, rather than head-to-head — better options for the clear favourites.

Try not to bet online all the time — I know there is less edge, especially with Betfair, but before long you'll be on there at 3 in the morning looking for a Norwegian Tippeliagen match to bet on. Not going to make money when you don't know the market.

Do your research, and don't punt with more you can afford to lose. I've done it, and there's nothing worse than trying to win your money back.

 

[Alehana]

yeh like i've grown up on union and more recently league, i've studied the game (thru watching it and playing) for enjoyment, and the knowldge i reckon i have is better than the average person (especially here cause i'm in an afl heartland) all my mates (are 18) always bet on horses and always lose (suprise suprise) but they asked me watch rugby and rugby league games they should bet on, so i gave them advice (cant remember what game, probablly a melborune storm 1) and they got a multi and raked it in. but true about the gut feeling, u need to develope it over time.

 

[Parra]

Rabs, post your bets in here each week before the matches - no need to include how much you put on - just the bet, the price and the bookie. It is a good way for everyone to see price variances, interesting multi's and to see what sorts of decisions are being made. If you find anywhere that you can get a correlated parlay on let us know - this is one area where you can get some nice payouts - but bookies wont usually let you on.

No-one is bagging anyone else out - it is just good data & interesting.

 

[Parra]

Tom - I find that the online prices cannot be beat. The TAB is routinely the worst by a large margin, with Aussie bookies only slightly better. Reputable bookies (you HAVE to check this out before depositing a cent) and betfair offer the best prices day in day out.