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I'LL preface this by saying that trends in rugby league can be sometimes as dangerous as statistics. You can mould a statistic or a trend to suit most situations and scenarios.
But there has been an interesting trend developing this season which may go some way to explain Manly's loss to Parramatta on Saturday night.
A week before a bye, teams have struggled - especially away from home.
So far in 2006, out of 25 teams playing the round before their bye, there have been 11 wins and 14 losses. But remarkably, out of the 14 wins, 13 have come at home.
That's one solitary away win before a bye this season. That one victory came in round two, when the Panthers scored a 13-12 win over St George Illawarra at WIN Stadium. Then, the Panthers were fresh enough to be not looking towards the bye in round three (and we all know how the Dragons begin their seasons).
While some may say trends should be kept to fashion and music, it's still an interesting one.
The theory here is that teams, however much they attempt to avoid the temptation, seem to have one eye on the bye well before they pack their golf clubs into their cars or book the plane tickets for the mid-season freshen-ups. Especially when they already have the away game hurdle to jump. Take Manly, for instance.
Manly, no doubt, will make good use of their time off this week and will emerge fresh for another run at the top four. But on Saturday night, as they boarded the bus bound for Parramatta Stadium, maybe the only thing that was fresh was the bye - in their minds.
Against a Parramatta side whose momentum has been taking on the look of a Mack truck without its brakes on a steep descent, Manly's best would only be good enough.
But they couldn't get near that level, particularly early on. The Eels leapt to a 24-8 lead, and it was only Fuifui Moimoi's send-off for a high tackle on Brent Kite which put the smelling salts under Manly noses and kick-started a comeback.
No matter how many times players and coaches reel out that "one week at a time" line, there's little doubt most of them don't, maybe can't, follow it. It's psychological.
Which brings us to Canberra's upset loss to Souths. The Raiders are on the verge of surprising many and sneaking into the top eight. However, they suffered a major dent to their chances with their defeat at Telstra Stadium.
The Raiders were flat. Complacency is generally considered as ugly a word for footballers as spitting, gouging and biting - however, it's far harder to avoid.
Souths had won one game all season, and the Raiders went to half-time staring at a 20-4 deficit. It would seem logical that some portion of complacency was involved.
Then there's the Warriors, who have needed a psychologist's couch as much as a coach this season, after being deducted four points before a ball had been kicked. That, again, was an enormous psychological barrier. The Warriors have done remarkably well to give themselves a chance at snaring a top-eight spot. On Saturday night, their brave run might just have ended against the Panthers.
But there has been an interesting trend developing this season which may go some way to explain Manly's loss to Parramatta on Saturday night.
A week before a bye, teams have struggled - especially away from home.
So far in 2006, out of 25 teams playing the round before their bye, there have been 11 wins and 14 losses. But remarkably, out of the 14 wins, 13 have come at home.
That's one solitary away win before a bye this season. That one victory came in round two, when the Panthers scored a 13-12 win over St George Illawarra at WIN Stadium. Then, the Panthers were fresh enough to be not looking towards the bye in round three (and we all know how the Dragons begin their seasons).
While some may say trends should be kept to fashion and music, it's still an interesting one.
The theory here is that teams, however much they attempt to avoid the temptation, seem to have one eye on the bye well before they pack their golf clubs into their cars or book the plane tickets for the mid-season freshen-ups. Especially when they already have the away game hurdle to jump. Take Manly, for instance.
Manly, no doubt, will make good use of their time off this week and will emerge fresh for another run at the top four. But on Saturday night, as they boarded the bus bound for Parramatta Stadium, maybe the only thing that was fresh was the bye - in their minds.
Against a Parramatta side whose momentum has been taking on the look of a Mack truck without its brakes on a steep descent, Manly's best would only be good enough.
But they couldn't get near that level, particularly early on. The Eels leapt to a 24-8 lead, and it was only Fuifui Moimoi's send-off for a high tackle on Brent Kite which put the smelling salts under Manly noses and kick-started a comeback.
No matter how many times players and coaches reel out that "one week at a time" line, there's little doubt most of them don't, maybe can't, follow it. It's psychological.
Which brings us to Canberra's upset loss to Souths. The Raiders are on the verge of surprising many and sneaking into the top eight. However, they suffered a major dent to their chances with their defeat at Telstra Stadium.
The Raiders were flat. Complacency is generally considered as ugly a word for footballers as spitting, gouging and biting - however, it's far harder to avoid.
Souths had won one game all season, and the Raiders went to half-time staring at a 20-4 deficit. It would seem logical that some portion of complacency was involved.
Then there's the Warriors, who have needed a psychologist's couch as much as a coach this season, after being deducted four points before a ball had been kicked. That, again, was an enormous psychological barrier. The Warriors have done remarkably well to give themselves a chance at snaring a top-eight spot. On Saturday night, their brave run might just have ended against the Panthers.
