I disagree with your main point, I believe we will be able to keep Loko, Sio and Mitchell at least over the long-term.
I think you've missed the point - we'll keep them as long as we have a spot for them
in first grade, on first grade money. If another club has a first grade spot for them (and the accompanying cash) before we do then we will lose them.
You have to remember mate, look at how many of our players have stayed with us for so long....Burt, Hindy, Cayless, Smith, Moi Moi, etc-sure not all of those players are Parra juniors but you get the idea.
Oh I get the idea - Burt was in first grade at 18. Hindy and Cayless at 19. Lucky for us Smith was a 'late' bloomer, being fairly unimpressive in the juniors and not being ready for first grade until the year he turned 20.
We bought Fui as an adult - he turned 25 the year he made his first grade debut because no club was confident they could unleash the first grader they suspected lay dormant inside him. He was a Brian Smith gamble that paid off, but before us Souths tried their luck. He was certainly no star junior like some of our kids in NYC.
Burt, Hindy and Caylo though
were all star juniors, and if we weren't able to offer them first grade (plus the cash) then other clubs would've signed them out from under us.
A truly loyal kid might agree to wait an extra year (for a senior player to finish his contract and free up some cash/cap space) for his big contract upgrade but there aren't so many of these kids around any more (if there ever were).
Luke Burt, Eric Grothe, Nathan Cayless, Nathan Hindmarsh, Fui Fui Moi Moi, Timana Tahu, Jeff Robson and so on are all going to retire within the next few years, which is definitely very sad and something no-one is looking forward to, but something we have to deal with.
I disagree that it's sad. It is what it is.
We are going to have Mannah, Horo, Smith, Reddy, Keating, Shackleton, Poore and Hayne making up the experienced members of our team.
Unless another club considers them to be worth more than we do. Then they'll sign elsewhere and we'll replace them from the annual game of musical chairs that happens with off-contract players.
All those losses, many of them expensive players, will free up a lot of salary cap space....it is a horrible thing to say yes, but it is the truth that we will be able to afford all these young players to replace them over the long-term, plus whichever marquee players we recruit.
Thing is, none of this happens in a vacuum mate. There are other clubs who need to replace their retirees and so on, and it comes down to when the player (and his manager) feel ready for first grade (ie. money) and whether that suits
our recruitment/retention plan (roster and salary cap) or whether it suits another club's recruitment/retention plan more.
For example, (and this is entirely hypothetical):
Jacob Loko's manager decides Jacob is ready to earn $200k+ next year. This is because he's shopped Jacob around to other clubs ever since he was 15 years old, they all have their eye on him, and one or more of these rival clubs has decided they have room for Jacob to take up $200k worth of cap space next year as the club's 3rd string centre, with the possibility of starting the year after when the club's 30 year old right centre comes off contract.
Another club has indicated Jacob could get $150k next year as a backup centre/back-rower in their 25 (say, third string centre, 5th string back-rower), with incentives of up to an extra $100k for match payments if he plays 20 or more games. There is an option of a big upgrade the year after, since the club has several back-rowers coming off contract.
Meanwhile Parramatta is paying Jacob $100k and has him under contract for next year. The coaching staff don't believe Jacob is ready for a whole season in the NRL at centre but think he could slot in as a back-up here and there. They also don't think he's ready to play in the back-row at all. When Jacob's manager asks for an extra $100k for Jacob and a spot in the top 25, the club responds that Jacob could come into the 25 but he has 3 centres ahead of him and isn't yet suitable for the back-row. He would be a waste of a spot and cap space, and the club wants him to stay in NYC with the possibility of first grade somewhere next season (in an emergency) and the guarantee of a top 25 spot the next year. The club says they can give Jacob $150k next year and $200k the year after if he signs an extension right now (because they want to avoid going through this again next year when he comes off contract and rival clubs could be coming with $300k offers).
Jacob's under contract to the Eels so they don't have to give Jacob and his manager anything but next year is the last year of Jacob's contract and if they piss the manager off, Jacob will be playing in Brisbane or Bondi in 2012, and Parra will have wasted the $150k they've paid Jacob to play junior reps these past 2 years.
Jacob's manager is unhappy because if it weren't for that f**king contract he signed last time, he would be able to get Jacob twice as much money (and his commission on that extra $100k) next year.
Jacob's manager gets in Jacob's ear and tells him the club are disrespecting Jacob, and that other clubs have recognised how good he is even though Parra just can't see it. The truth is, Parra just don't have the room under next year's cap to give Jacob another $100k, and besides they don't think he's mentally ready (they know him better than the club who are ready to throw $200k at him) and therefore don't think he's worth the extra $100k.
They also know if they don't either give Jacob the upgrade or a release that they will pay him $100k to play NYC next year, which will all be wasted when he leaves.
This is when the player's strength of character comes into play (along with the integrity of the manager) as well as his personal relationships with senior players and other respected figures in the club (ie. the coaching staff). And maybe the club shouldn't have signed Jacob to a contract that expires before he's ready for first grade.
But this is all hypothetical. I'm trying to illustrate why you can't rely on juniors coming into the side when the team is ready for them, because other clubs might be ready for them sooner, and the player and his manager might have their own ideas of when the player is ready for the big time, and most importantly the big bucks.
1. Jarryd Hayne
2. Joel Reddy
3. Tom Humble
Humble's too small for centre.
At the moment he's a back-up for fullback/halves/hooker in the top 25, and hopefully is being paid accordingly. If he shows any more than he has then other clubs might offer him an improved role and then it's up to us to decide.
What if Mortimer (for example) gets injured in round 2. Humble steps in and plays like a house on fire for 12 weeks, making 10 linebreaks and making the NRL (ie. other clubs) sit up and take notice.
Mortimer comes back from injury mid year, right when other clubs start sniffing around Humble (who is coming off contract). We now have a decision to make. Humble is receiving offers of $300k and we're only paying him $100k. Mortimer's on $200k with another year to run (this is all hypothetical).
The point is, the club has some hard decisions to make. They can keep Humble in the 6 jersey but they have to find another $200k under the cap to upgrade his contract. Mortimer is now a backup or rotation player on $200k for 2 more years. He won't agree to a downgrade, and nobody will take his contract off our hands. He's also pissed off at being relegated because now he has less chance to impress in time for when he comes off contract next year. A professional like Mortimer would handle it better than many others, but you see what coaches and CEOs are faced with.
Have you considered he and his manager (and one or more rival clubs) might want Sio to play first grade next year? We have experienced wingers ahead of him in the pecking order (and taking up space under the salary cap). Our plan for him to play first grade after Grothe or Burt retire might be unsuitable to everybody except us, especialy when he could be playing first grade next year.
We might've had a plan for Jono Wright to be backup again next year and to start the year after but the Bulldogs offered him first grade (and first grade money) a year sooner.
Once again, just hypothetical, but you can see how plans for the future makeup of the team can't ever be set in stone.
