Melbourne or roosters

[Munky]

Reynolds is probably the only half in a possible top eight team who has the long kicking game to play the grind. The rest of his team won't have the discipline to do it for eighty minutes.

Hughes is excellent for Melbourne with his running game but his kicking for territory is a tier below. That said Melbourne won't beat themselves.

Keary/Walker want to score on every tackle. The rest of their team are hot heads. Spencer is a wild card, will either trample the middle or get carved up if possession is going the other way.

 

[Chins get the wins]

The longer the winning streak, the greater likelihood it ends, that just the reality.

Means nothing the results of the past years, it’s always who does the business on the day.

That's not how statistics or probability work

 

[Fangs]

The longer the winning streak, the greater likelihood it ends, that just the reality.

Means nothing the results of the past years, it’s always who does the business on the day.

Ask Roosters fans who should have won the 2014 semi-final against Penrith. They had a bad day and we scraped home. The Roosters should have won and should have been in the grand final weeks later against Souths but it didn't happen.

The point around previous results is that this still feels like the same old Roosters. I haven't seen enough in 2024 to make me think they have suddenly become a contender.

 

[Kilkenny]

That's not how statistics or probability work

Man Utd beat Man City in the recent FA Cup Final they had been a vastly inferior side for a long time but they got to lift the trophy despite still being a vastly inferior side.

On any given day anyone can beat anyone that’s just the way it is, no different to us this season getting touched up by the Sea Eagles, Warriors and Dragons.

Nothing to do with statistics, probability, form it is just the very nature of football codes. It is all about performing, being at your best on the day.

 

[Original Name]

Ignoring rules isn't great. Such flawed thinking

The only way to ref within the rules to the letter would be to give 30 penalties every game. It makes games unwatchable.

 

[maple_69]

If we can lock up top two I think we'll be hard to stop. We go into the last 6 weeks reasonably fresh, reasonably healthy and with a period to get some combinations working and tuned up. From 1 or 2 we then face Roosters/Sharks likely and those teams just don't seem to have the mental toughness to get into the trenches with a seasoned and patient side like Penrith. From there we are one game away from a grand final facing a team like Manly or the Dogs or Cronulla or Easts who are going the long way and likely quite battered and once again probably just not up to the class and temperament of Penrith. Hard to see the Melbourne side of the draw going differently. Things obviously happen, as it did in 21 when we ambushed Melbourne but both of the top two teams are a serious step above the others in terms of experience and consistency in big games.

Brisbane obviously have the talent to make a run but it doesn't look likely at this stage, they have too much to do, are poorly coached, too many of their players are out of form and they don't have a strong system to fall back into when things aren't going their way like Melbourne and Penrith do.

 

[MugaB]

That's not how statistics or probability work