Nathan Brown

[Gronk]

Given the current make up off the team I think your right.

Yes take the make up off.

 

[Chipmunk]

So I've found some stats, but not all what I was looking for.

On the Metres Per Run Stat, when Brown has played for 80 minutes the last 6 weeks, he averages less than 9 metres per run, when he played for 65 minutes against the loss to the Cowboys he made 10 metres per run. The only time that he's made more than 9 metres per run was when he played for 68 minutes against the Raiders at the start of the year. He's never once reached 9 metres per run playing for 80 minutes.

His tackle per minute rate is also greater when he's played less than the 80 minutes, probably around 5% better in this instance.

It's a shame we can't get a break down of different periods in the match when he's played 80 minutes.

 

[Joshuatheeel]

He'd be more effective if he didn't have to play 80 minutes covering for the rest of the muppets in the team,

But if want to play a bench hooker you need to limit interchanges some where else.

Let's say we give brown a rest, that's two interchanges just there. Then you have another one for your bench hooker.

Then add 4 interchanges for your props (2 changes at 20 mins and 60 mins), gives you 7 interchanges, just in the middle.

So we are just better off having Brown play the whole 80, save 2 changes, as he is the most suitable for it.

 

[Bazal]

So I've found some stats, but not all what I was looking for.

On the Metres Per Run Stat, when Brown has played for 80 minutes the last 6 weeks, he averages less than 9 metres per run, when he played for 65 minutes against the loss to the Cowboys he made 10 metres per run. The only time that he's made more than 9 metres per run was when he played for 68 minutes against the Raiders at the start of the year. He's never once reached 9 metres per run playing for 80 minutes.

His tackle per minute rate is also greater when he's played less than the 80 minutes, probably around 5% better in this instance.

It's a shame we can't get a break down of different periods in the match when he's played 80 minutes.

http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/

Use the match button top left to toggle rounds and games. They have half by half stats. EG against the Bulldogs Brown made exactly the same metres per run over the two halves, more tackles per minute in the second half.

Which, for the record, exposes a fatal flaw in your approach.

 

[Chipmunk]

But if want to play a bench hooker you need to limit interchanges some where else.

Let's say we give brown a rest, that's two interchanges just there. Then you have another one for your bench hooker.

Then add 4 interchanges for your props (2 changes at 20 mins and 60 mins), gives you 7 interchanges, just in the middle.

So we are just better off having Brown play the whole 80, save 2 changes, as he is the most suitable for it.

Well I'm not talking about this year, I'm talking getting better players around him so he can play less minutes.

If the coach had an 80 minute hooker and better forwards, would he play four forwards on the bench?

 

[Chipmunk]

http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/

Use the match button top left to toggle rounds and games. They have half by half stats. EG against the Bulldogs Brown made exactly the same metres per run over the two halves, more tackles per minute in the second half.

Which, for the record, exposes a fatal flaw in your approach.

Well obviously as a team we made more tackles in the second half than we did in the first against the Dogs, so that would stand to reason.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Evans has similar speed and footwork so he will likely play a similar role. This will let Brown have a rest, though at full strength we rest him anyway.

 

[Bazal]

Well obviously as a team we made more tackles in the second half than we did in the first against the Dogs, so that would stand to reason.

Which is exactly my point. Breaking it down into sections sounds fine, but it doesn't work unless you account for the match situation in every section.

 

[hindy111]

Surpasses gutho as best signing in f**k knows how long

We have had a few good signings but i feel Manu has been best in last 5 yrs as he come from knowhere. I expected Brown to atleast a solid first grader while Gutherson was a complete unkown quantity.

 

[hindy111]

Without Brown, our forward pack would be a complete joke. It's amazing that in a way he is single handily carrying our forwards.

I will be critical. Ive noticed Brown leave gaps and line breaks created from this.
His attacking games great but we have better defending forwards.

 

[Chipmunk]

Which is exactly my point. Breaking it down into sections sounds fine, but it doesn't work unless you account for the match situation in every section.

Well like all statistics, they need to be analysed as a whole to get an accurate result.

 

[Bazal]

Well like all statistics, they need to be analysed as a whole to get an accurate result.

Yes, but it means that as an 80 minute player his effectiveness in each area is a result of the match situation, not the minutes he plays....the sections are irrelevant because the match situation has more of an effect on his performance than the time of the match.

The only way the sections would give relevant and usable data on how time changed his performance is if the match was exactly even for the entire 80 minutes.

 

[Chipmunk]

Yes, but it means that as an 80 minute player his effectiveness in each area is a result of the match situation, not the minutes he plays....the sections are irrelevant because the match situation has more of an effect on his performance than the time of the match.

The only way the sections would give relevant and usable data on how time changed his performance is if the match was exactly even for the entire 80 minutes.

I'm still thinking that if we had better players, he could do less, but be more effective at what he did, so the quality of his output would be more effective than the quantity of his output.

 

[Bazal]

I'm still thinking that if we had better players, he could do less, but be more effective at what he did, so the quality of his output would be more effective than the quantity of his output.

But if he can give you the quality he gives you for 80 minutes, why would you want him playing less? Having him deliver 80 minutes of real quality allows, as a hypothetical example, big bodied running forwards like Evans and Meehan to play short bursts in the middle and absolutely tear shit up knowing that they only have to go hard for a short stint.

We're not short on 80 minute quality. We're short on guys with that extra gear. The more guys who can deliver 80 minutes of quality, the harder guys with that extra gear can go.

 

[Chipmunk]

But if he can give you the quality he gives you for 80 minutes, why would you want him playing less? Having him deliver 80 minutes of real quality allows, as a hypothetical example, big bodied running forwards like Evans and Meehan to play short bursts in the middle and absolutely tear shit up knowing that they only have to go hard for a short stint.

We're not short on 80 minute quality. We're short on guys with that extra gear. The more guys who can deliver 80 minutes of quality, the harder guys with that extra gear can go.

Well if he can do less in 80 minutes but have a better quality of output, and we've got that players around him to accommodate that, then that's just a bonus. At the moment we don't have that luxury though. Hopefully next year will work out though.

 

[Djay]

Well if he can do less in 80 minutes but have a better quality of output, and we've got that players around him to accommodate that, then that's just a bonus. At the moment we don't have that luxury though. Hopefully next year will work out though.

We need another Brown, if we got another like him we are instantly a better team, if we got a rep level forward alongside him we become a premiership threat.

And yea a hooker to I guess.....

 

[strider]

170k ?!?! ... serious? ... cannot believe no one offered more. I was over the moon when we got him. Thought we would have paid at least 350k, probably more

 

[Bazal]

170k ?!?! ... serious? ... cannot believe no one offered more. I was over the moon when we got him. Thought we would have paid at least 350k, probably more

Personally I don't believe he's on that little tbh. I don't think he's on a heap, but 170k seems ludicrous to me

 

[Forty20]

Personally I don't believe he's on that little tbh. I don't think he's on a heap, but 170k seems ludicrous to me

It is a lot closer to the mark than I think most will give credit. A reliable South Sydney tipster on Reddit was poking fun at us last year for signing him to a deal worth - in his words - $150k a year because it solidly trumped the offer from the Rabbitohs.

 

[Bazal]

It is a lot closer to the mark than I think most will give credit. A reliable South Sydney tipster on Reddit was poking fun at us last year for signing him to a deal worth - in his words - $150k a year because it solidly trumped the offer from the Rabbitohs.

I was thinking in the 250k range personally. Still well under the odds. I suppose we'll never know for sure, but he's a bargain in anyone's book. Souths fans have been trying to convince some of their posters that he's on 5-600k and there's no way they could have afforded to keep him lol.