Need your help - NFL Gambling

[nick87]

So here's the deal gents, im a very keen gambler and i like to throw a bit of money around on NFL futures, i find them fun to follow through the year.

Ive been working on this for a few days... make some arguments against me.
The numbers below each week are my estimated win expectancy...

Tell me where ive under/over sold some teams

team wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 5 wk 6 wk 7 wk 8 wk 9 wk 10 wk 11 wk 12 wk 13 wk 14 wk 15 wk 16 wk 17 total line + / -
ari no @chi sf stl @det @pit bal @cle bye @sea cin @sf @stl min @phi gb sea wins 8.5 0.55
0.7 0.9 0.65 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 n/a 0.25 0.6 0.65 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 9.05
atl phi @nyg @dal hou wsh @no @ten tb @sf bye ind min @tb @car @jax car no wins 8.5 -0.45
0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.65 0.6 0.45 n/a 0.25 0.5 0.65 0.45 0.8 0.5 0.5 8.05
bal @den @oak cin @pit cle @sf @ari sd bye jax stl @cle @mia sea kc pit @cin wins 8.5 1.15
0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.65 n/a 0.85 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 9.65
buf ind ne @mia nyg @ten cin @jax bye mia @nyj @ne @kc hou @phi @wsh dal nyj wins 8.5 0.45
0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.45 0.85 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.65 0.6 0.5 8.95
car @jax hou no @tb bye @sea phi ind gb @ten wsh @dal @no atl @nyg @atl tb wins 8.5 0.55
0.85 0.6 0.7 0.9 n/a 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.35 0.8 0.75 0.4 0.5 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.75 9.05
chi gb ari @sea oak @kc @det bye min @sd @stl den @gb sf wsh @min @tb det wins 6.5 -1.3
0.1 0.1 0.05 0.7 0.35 0.4 n/a 0.3 0.25 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.35 0.5 0.4 5.2
cin @oak sd @bal kc sea @buf bye @pit cle hou @ari stl @cle pit @sf @den bal wins 8.5 0.3
0.9 0.55 0.5 0.6 0.25 0.55 n/a 0.5 0.65 0.6 0.4 0.55 0.65 0.5 0.65 0.45 0.5 8.8
cle @nyj ten oak @sd @bal den @stl ari @cin @pit bye bal cin sf @sea @kc pit wins 6.5 -1.7
0.25 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.3 n/a 0.35 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.25 0.4 4.8
dal nyg @phi atl @no ne bye @nyg sea phi @tb @mia car @wsh @gb nyj @buf wsh wins 9.5 -0.8
0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 n/a 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 8.7
den bal @kc @det min @oak @cle bye gb @ind kc @chi ne @sd oak @pit cin sd wins 10.5 -1.7
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.85 0.8 n/a 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.35 0.5 0.7 0.45 0.55 0.5 8.8
det @sd @min den @sea ari chi min @kc bye @gb oak phi gb @stl @no sf @chi wins 8.5 -1.4
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 n/a 0.15 0.7 0.4 0.25 0.45 0.5 0.65 0.6 7.1
gb @chi sea kc @sf stl sd bye @den @car det @min chi @det dal @oak @ari min wins 10.5 1.5
0.9 0.5 0.8 0.85 0.8 0.7 n/a 0.7 0.65 0.85 0.65 0.9 0.75 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.75 12
hou kc @car tb @atl ind @jax @mia ten bye @cin nyj no @buf ne @ind @ten jax wins 8.5 -0.65
0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.8 n/a 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.65 7.85
ind @buf nyj @ten jax @hou ne no @car den bye @atl tb @pit @jax hou @mia ten wins 10.5 0.7
0.7 0.7 0.95 0.95 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 n/a 0.75 0.9 0.5 0.65 0.7 0.65 0.85 11.2
jax car mia @ne @ind @tb hou buf bye @nyj @bal ten sd @ten ind atl @no @hou wins 5.5 -1.5
0.15 0.3 0.05 0.05 0.5 0.2 0.15 n/a 0.2 0.15 0.5 0.15 0.5 0.35 0.2 0.2 0.35 4
kc @hou den @gb @cin chi @min pit det bye @den @sd buf @oak sd @bal cle oak wins 8.5 0
0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.65 0.5 0.4 0.6 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.75 0.9 8.5
mia @wsh @jax buf nyj bye @ten hou @ne @buf @phi dal @nyj bal nyg @sd ind ne wins 8.5 -0.7
0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 n/a 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.45 0.35 0.3 7.8
min @sf det sd @den bye kc @det @chi stl @oak gb @atl sea @ari chi nyg @gb wins 7.5 0.55
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.35 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.65 0.5 0.25 8.05
ne pit @buf jax bye @dal @ind nyj mia wsh @nyg buf @den phi @hou ten @nyj @mia wins 10.5 1.3
0.5 0.5 0.95 n/a 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.65 0.8 0.8 0.95 0.65 0.7 11.8
no @ari tb @car dal @phi atl @ind nyg ten @wsh bye @hou car @tb det jax @atl wins 8.5 -0.5
0.3 0.65 0.3 0.3 0.35 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.65 0.6 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.65 0.5 0.8 0.5 8
nyg @dal atl wsh @buf sf @phi dal @no @tb ne bye @wsh nyj @mia car @min phi wins 8.5 -1
0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.55 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.2 n/a 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.35 7.5
nyj cle @ind phi @mia bye wsh @ne @oak jax buf @hou mia @nyg ten @dal ne @buf wins 7.5 0.85
0.75 0.3 0.4 0.5 n/a 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.65 0.4 0.35 0.5 8.35
oak cin bal @cle @chi den bye @sd nyj @pit min @det @ten kc @den gb sd @kc wins 5.5 -1.95
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.15 n/a 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.55
phi @atl dal @nyj @wsh no nyg @car bye @dal mia tb @det @ne buf ari wsh @nyg wins 9.5 0
0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.65 0.6 0.7 n/a 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.65 9.5
pit @ne sf @stl bal @sd ari @kc cin oak cle bye @sea ind @cin den @bal @cle wins 8.5 0.5
0.5 0.7 0.65 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 n/a 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.55 0.5 0.6 9
sd det @cin @min cle pit @gb oak @bal chi bye kc @jax den @kc mia @oak @den wins 8.5 0.85
0.6 0.45 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.35 0.75 n/a 0.5 0.85 0.5 0.6 0.55 0.8 0.5 9.35
sf min @pit @ari gb @nyg bal sea @stl atl bye @sea ari @chi @cle cin @det stl wins 7.5 -1.55
0.4 0.3 0.35 0.15 0.45 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.55 n/a 0.1 0.35 0.6 0.9 0.35 0.35 0.4 5.95
sea @stl @gb chi det @cin car @sf @dal bye ari sf pit @min @bal cle stl @ari wins 10.5 1.75
0.8 0.5 0.95 0.8 0.75 0.8 0.9 0.8 n/a 0.75 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 12.25
stl sea @wsh pit @ari @gb bye cle sf @min chi @bal @cin ari det tb @sea @sf wins 7.5 -0.15
0.2 0.6 0.35 0.4 0.2 n/a 0.75 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.45 0.4 0.55 0.75 0.2 0.6 7.35
tb ten @no @hou car jax bye @wsh @atl nyg dal @phi @ind atl no @stl chi @car wins 5.5 -0.35
0.5 0.35 0.3 0.1 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.35 0.35 0.25 0.5 0.25 5.15
ten @tb @cle ind bye buf mia atl @hou @no car @jax oak jax @nyj @ne hou @ind wins 5.5 -0.7
0.5 0.5 0.05 n/a 0.1 0.2 0.35 0.2 0.35 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.35 0.05 0.3 0.15 4.8
wsh mia stl @nyg phi @atl @nyj tb bye @ne no @car nyg dal @chi buf @phi @dal wins 6.5 -0.6
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 n/a 0.1 0.4 0.25 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.35 0.4 0.4 5.9

 

[Paullyboy]

So here's the deal gents, im a very keen gambler and i like to throw a bit of money around on NFL futures, i find them fun to follow through the year.

Ive been working on this for a few days... make some arguments against me.
The numbers below each week are my estimated win expectancy...

Tell me where ive under/over sold some teams

team wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 5 wk 6 wk 7 wk 8 wk 9 wk 10 wk 11 wk 12 wk 13 wk 14 wk 15 wk 16 wk 17 total line + / -
ari no @chi sf stl @det @pit bal @cle bye @sea cin @sf @stl min @phi gb sea wins 8.5 0.55
0.7 0.9 0.65 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 n/a 0.25 0.6 0.65 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 9.05
atl phi @nyg @dal hou wsh @no @ten tb @sf bye ind min @tb @car @jax car no wins 8.5 -0.45
0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.65 0.6 0.45 n/a 0.25 0.5 0.65 0.45 0.8 0.5 0.5 8.05
bal @den @oak cin @pit cle @sf @ari sd bye jax stl @cle @mia sea kc pit @cin wins 8.5 1.15
0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.65 n/a 0.85 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 9.65
buf ind ne @mia nyg @ten cin @jax bye mia @nyj @ne @kc hou @phi @wsh dal nyj wins 8.5 0.45
0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.45 0.85 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.65 0.6 0.5 8.95
car @jax hou no @tb bye @sea phi ind gb @ten wsh @dal @no atl @nyg @atl tb wins 8.5 0.55
0.85 0.6 0.7 0.9 n/a 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.35 0.8 0.75 0.4 0.5 0.55 0.5 0.5 0.75 9.05
chi gb ari @sea oak @kc @det bye min @sd @stl den @gb sf wsh @min @tb det wins 6.5 -1.3
0.1 0.1 0.05 0.7 0.35 0.4 n/a 0.3 0.25 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.35 0.5 0.4 5.2
cin @oak sd @bal kc sea @buf bye @pit cle hou @ari stl @cle pit @sf @den bal wins 8.5 0.3
0.9 0.55 0.5 0.6 0.25 0.55 n/a 0.5 0.65 0.6 0.4 0.55 0.65 0.5 0.65 0.45 0.5 8.8
cle @nyj ten oak @sd @bal den @stl ari @cin @pit bye bal cin sf @sea @kc pit wins 6.5 -1.7
0.25 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.3 n/a 0.35 0.35 0.1 0.1 0.25 0.4 4.8
dal nyg @phi atl @no ne bye @nyg sea phi @tb @mia car @wsh @gb nyj @buf wsh wins 9.5 -0.8
0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 n/a 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 8.7
den bal @kc @det min @oak @cle bye gb @ind kc @chi ne @sd oak @pit cin sd wins 10.5 -1.7
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.85 0.8 n/a 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.35 0.5 0.7 0.45 0.55 0.5 8.8
det @sd @min den @sea ari chi min @kc bye @gb oak phi gb @stl @no sf @chi wins 8.5 -1.4
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 n/a 0.15 0.7 0.4 0.25 0.45 0.5 0.65 0.6 7.1
gb @chi sea kc @sf stl sd bye @den @car det @min chi @det dal @oak @ari min wins 10.5 1.5
0.9 0.5 0.8 0.85 0.8 0.7 n/a 0.7 0.65 0.85 0.65 0.9 0.75 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.75 12
hou kc @car tb @atl ind @jax @mia ten bye @cin nyj no @buf ne @ind @ten jax wins 8.5 -0.65
0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.8 n/a 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.65 7.85
ind @buf nyj @ten jax @hou ne no @car den bye @atl tb @pit @jax hou @mia ten wins 10.5 0.7
0.7 0.7 0.95 0.95 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 n/a 0.75 0.9 0.5 0.65 0.7 0.65 0.85 11.2
jax car mia @ne @ind @tb hou buf bye @nyj @bal ten sd @ten ind atl @no @hou wins 5.5 -1.5
0.15 0.3 0.05 0.05 0.5 0.2 0.15 n/a 0.2 0.15 0.5 0.15 0.5 0.35 0.2 0.2 0.35 4
kc @hou den @gb @cin chi @min pit det bye @den @sd buf @oak sd @bal cle oak wins 8.5 0
0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.65 0.5 0.4 0.6 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.75 0.9 8.5
mia @wsh @jax buf nyj bye @ten hou @ne @buf @phi dal @nyj bal nyg @sd ind ne wins 8.5 -0.7
0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 n/a 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.45 0.35 0.3 7.8
min @sf det sd @den bye kc @det @chi stl @oak gb @atl sea @ari chi nyg @gb wins 7.5 0.55
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.35 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.65 0.5 0.25 8.05
ne pit @buf jax bye @dal @ind nyj mia wsh @nyg buf @den phi @hou ten @nyj @mia wins 10.5 1.3
0.5 0.5 0.95 n/a 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.65 0.8 0.8 0.95 0.65 0.7 11.8
no @ari tb @car dal @phi atl @ind nyg ten @wsh bye @hou car @tb det jax @atl wins 8.5 -0.5
0.3 0.65 0.3 0.3 0.35 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.65 0.6 n/a 0.5 0.5 0.65 0.5 0.8 0.5 8
nyg @dal atl wsh @buf sf @phi dal @no @tb ne bye @wsh nyj @mia car @min phi wins 8.5 -1
0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.55 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.2 n/a 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.35 7.5
nyj cle @ind phi @mia bye wsh @ne @oak jax buf @hou mia @nyg ten @dal ne @buf wins 7.5 0.85
0.75 0.3 0.4 0.5 n/a 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.65 0.4 0.35 0.5 8.35
oak cin bal @cle @chi den bye @sd nyj @pit min @det @ten kc @den gb sd @kc wins 5.5 -1.95
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.15 n/a 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.55
phi @atl dal @nyj @wsh no nyg @car bye @dal mia tb @det @ne buf ari wsh @nyg wins 9.5 0
0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.65 0.6 0.7 n/a 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.65 9.5
pit @ne sf @stl bal @sd ari @kc cin oak cle bye @sea ind @cin den @bal @cle wins 8.5 0.5
0.5 0.7 0.65 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 n/a 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.55 0.5 0.6 9
sd det @cin @min cle pit @gb oak @bal chi bye kc @jax den @kc mia @oak @den wins 8.5 0.85
0.6 0.45 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.35 0.75 n/a 0.5 0.85 0.5 0.6 0.55 0.8 0.5 9.35
sf min @pit @ari gb @nyg bal sea @stl atl bye @sea ari @chi @cle cin @det stl wins 7.5 -1.55
0.4 0.3 0.35 0.15 0.45 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.55 n/a 0.1 0.35 0.6 0.9 0.35 0.35 0.4 5.95
sea @stl @gb chi det @cin car @sf @dal bye ari sf pit @min @bal cle stl @ari wins 10.5 1.75
0.8 0.5 0.95 0.8 0.75 0.8 0.9 0.8 n/a 0.75 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 12.25
stl sea @wsh pit @ari @gb bye cle sf @min chi @bal @cin ari det tb @sea @sf wins 7.5 -0.15
0.2 0.6 0.35 0.4 0.2 n/a 0.75 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.45 0.4 0.55 0.75 0.2 0.6 7.35
tb ten @no @hou car jax bye @wsh @atl nyg dal @phi @ind atl no @stl chi @car wins 5.5 -0.35
0.5 0.35 0.3 0.1 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.35 0.35 0.25 0.5 0.25 5.15
ten @tb @cle ind bye buf mia atl @hou @no car @jax oak jax @nyj @ne hou @ind wins 5.5 -0.7
0.5 0.5 0.05 n/a 0.1 0.2 0.35 0.2 0.35 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.35 0.05 0.3 0.15 4.8
wsh mia stl @nyg phi @atl @nyj tb bye @ne no @car nyg dal @chi buf @phi @dal wins 6.5 -0.6
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 n/a 0.1 0.4 0.25 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.35 0.4 0.4 5.9

Took me a while to realise what you were going for there.

You really don't rate the Bears I see!

Out of curiosity, why are you predicting matches so far ahead, absolutely anything could happen.

 

[nick87]

Im going to be place $1000 worth of future bets, including $20 on the season under/over lines for each teams win totals

Obviously ill be adjusting right up until I place the bets, which will be a few days before the season kicks off, but I just need to get a base line up first to take some of the hard yakka out

Like if everyone here thinks I've rated the Broncos too low, I might adjust them in some games

I'm looking for others to put their eyes over a few teams and tell if I've projected them too low/high

 

[Russell Crowe's Band]

back the chiefs over
back the chargers under

I reckon you have the Texans ranked a little low ad the lions a little low

 

[legend]

I think the Broncos are slightly low. I think they'll finish win 10 wins, possibly 11 if Manning can stay healthy down the stretch.

Not sure on KC either. They have a very tough start to the season and I'm not sure Alex Smith under Andy Reid can get it done in tight situations.

 

[zombie jesus]

I'd give the Chargers the win against the Steelers. Must have been about 10 years since they won a game on the west coast. Coaches thought of it enough to request (it was denied) back to back games @SD and @SEA to stay out there the week and avoid travelling twice.

 

[nick87]

Good stuff guys
Ive got to adjust those numbers for the Greg Hardy, Tom Brady and Lev Bell suspensions (i had Hardy missing 10, Brady missing 2 and Lev missing 2)

Very keen to see how these style of projections go once the season results are in
I chucked $10 on over/unders on every team last year and got 20/32 right so that was nice, id like to be getting up to around 75% strike rate

 

[nick87]

I think the Broncos are slightly low. I think they'll finish win 10 wins, possibly 11 if Manning can stay healthy down the stretch.

I've been looking at denver:

team wk 1 wk 2 wk 3 wk 4 wk 5 wk 6 wk 7 wk 8 wk 9 wk 10 wk 11 wk 12 wk 13 wk 14 wk 15 wk 16 wk 17 total line + / -
den bal @kc @det min @oak @cle bye gb @ind kc @chi ne @sd oak @pit cin sd wins 10.5 -1.7
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.85 0.8 n/a 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.35 0.5 0.7 0.45 0.55 0.5 8.8

I think i've definitely under sold them here, probably need to adjust their home games against MIN, GB, KC, CIN and SD up a little bit.

 

[legend]

I'd definitely give the Broncos 10 bps against the Steelers, NE and GB. They seem a little low for home games.

 

[abpanther]

When I read the thread title I thought this was about your personal demons and reaching out for help hahaha

 

[nick87]

When I read the thread title I thought this was about your personal demons and reaching out for help hahaha

that thread is probably only a 2 years away tbh :lol:

 

[Jono078]

I think the Vikings are about on the money there. Have no idea how we'll go. But I expect defense to be good-great and offense could be anything, I think mostly depending on our o-line.