New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[Perth Red]

Isnt there a warriors forum on LU?

 

[flippikat]

In the unlikely event the libs win the wa election and don’t follow through on 350 million in stadium funding then potentially Perth get brushed and nz2 will be team 19 and Ipswich team 20

Bears might miss out in that scenario but the nrl needs 20 teams for tv content

It's an interesting scenario IF (maybe a big if) all Perth plans completely fail.

The assumption that the NRL "needs 29 teams" may not be correct in that scenario - PNG takes us to 18 teams and a 9th game per weekend, which is already more content to take to networks.

Also, the comment that "(team 20) may not be done in this broadcast cycle" is intriguing.

Does this mean the deal they're about to negotiate could well be for 9 games during that whole deal's duration? Well, then what's stopping them just adding PNG & pushing back everything else to the FOLLOWING deal?

Sure that's hideously conservative - and would be an epic backtrack.. but if Perth collapses & the existing SEQ teams dig their heels in regarding another team there, that just leaves NZ 2 that could come in as team 19.

Would they consider THAT then leaving team 20 open to decide later...? Or just park 19 AND 20 for later?

 

[Wb1234]

It's an interesting scenario IF (maybe a big if) all Perth plans completely fail.

The assumption that the NRL "needs 29 teams" may not be correct in that scenario - PNG takes us to 18 teams and a 9th game per weekend, which is already more content to take to networks.

Also, the comment that "(team 20) may not be done in this broadcast cycle" is intriguing.

Does this mean the deal they're about to negotiate could well be for 9 games during that whole deal's duration? Well, then what's stopping them just adding PNG & pushing back everything else to the FOLLOWING deal?

Sure that's hideously conservative - and would be an epic backtrack.. but if Perth collapses & the existing SEQ teams dig their heels in regarding another team there, that just leaves NZ 2 that could come in as team 19.

Would they consider THAT then leaving team 20 open to decide later...? Or just park 19 AND 20 for later?

PNG and Perth took way longer to sort out

Nrl wants to sort out tv deal by mid year and Perth won’t be announced until march so five months delayed

Nz tv deal also expires 2027 so they will be talking to sky nz to see what the next tv deal looks like and if two teams stacks up

After union got a large price cut perhaps the nrl wants to ensure their deal doesn’t get cut before adding another team

If W.A. falls over nz2 would be favs for team 19

There really no need for Brisbane 3 just yet the dolphins need a while to grow

 

[Perth Red]

Id say its very likely that if Perth falls over they will stick to 18 teams until 2032 ish.
Perth was always going to be club 18 due to what it offers in both Govt $ investment for the game in WA and Tv value to Australian broadcasters, PNG is purely happening because of Govt intervention, not due to any NRL strategy. I get the sense NZ2 was the 'we need another club so we arent stuck on 19 now PNG is happening' option. Like Wb said if SKY NZ offer to double the current deal then it may get fast tracked, but that seems highly unlikely. Brisabne3 will be the safety net if PNG fails in a decades time when the money runs out.

 

[Wb1234]

Id say its very likely that if Perth falls over they will stick to 18 teams until 2032 ish.
Perth was always going to be club 18 due to what it offers in both Govt $ investment for the game in WA and Tv value to Australian broadcasters, PNG is purely happening because of Govt intervention, not due to any NRL strategy. I get the sense NZ2 was the 'we need another club so we arent stuck on 19 now PNG is happening' option. Like Wb said if SKY NZ offer to double the current deal then it may get fast tracked, but that seems highly unlikely. Brisabne3 will be the safety net if PNG fails in a decades time when the money runs out.

If nz2 stops the sky deal being cut at all it will be worth it

Best case scenario is a rise to 45 million

 

[flippikat]

PNG and Perth took way longer to sort out

Nrl wants to sort out tv deal by mid year and Perth won’t be announced until march so five months delayed

Nz tv deal also expires 2027 so they will be talking to sky nz to see what the next tv deal looks like and if two teams stacks up

After union got a large price cut perhaps the nrl wants to ensure their deal doesn’t get cut before adding another team

If W.A. falls over nz2 would be favs for team 19

There really no need for Brisbane 3 just yet the dolphins need a while to grow

You raise good points - most importantly about there not being a need for Brisbane 3 while the Dolphins need some time (and it gives the Broncos & Titans a window to sort their houses out too).. BUT the commercial/broadcaster pressure appears to be there for more SEQ "product".. so it's a fine balancing act between that & existing clubs' self interest.

Sky have a LOT on their hands right now, navigating their way through a satellite change-over that's become especially troublesome as their current satellite (Optus D2) orbit has decayed faster than expected, and the replacement (Optus 11) isn't expected to be launched until late this year - they're scrambling to move to a stop-gap satellite by this May.

'Falling short': Customers told they should get Sky TV discounts

Sky has been beset with problems as a dying satellite has caused problems for its transmission.

www.rnz.co.nz

 

[Perth Red]

If nz2 stops the sky deal being cut at all it will be worth it

Best case scenario is a rise to 45 million

how do you figure? Nz2 will cost $20mill plus extra travel for clubs and refs. If the NZ deal doesnt go up by that much (assuming its largely worthless to have a NZ club as club 19 to Australian tv) then why would the NRL lose money on them?

 

[Wb1234]

how do you figure? Nz2 will cost $20mill plus extra travel for clubs and refs. If the NZ deal doesnt go up by that much (assuming its largely worthless to have a NZ club as club 19 to Australian tv) then why would the NRL lose money on them?

NRL doesn’t have to make so much profit out of nz like they do currently

Nrl tv deal is literally around seven percent of the total deal. It’s a nice bonus

You would think a second team should be worth the cost of the grant to sky with the extra ratings

Nz ru tv deal isn’t 50 million as originally reported the number is 85 million

Nrl should get half that number with higher ratings than union

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

how do you figure? Nz2 will cost $20mill plus extra travel for clubs and refs. If the NZ deal doesnt go up by that much (assuming its largely worthless to have a NZ club as club 19 to Australian tv) then why would the NRL lose money on them?

If there was one place were copping a minor loss on investment, assuming the Sky deal stays the same or only goes up marginally, it would be in NZ, specifically South Island NZ with their flash new stadium.
Opportunity for massive new pathways (short-term), further eating into union territory (short to medium), possibly weakening the AB`s (medium to long), all upside for League and downside for union.

 

[Perth Red]

If there was one place were copping a minor loss on investment, assuming the Sky deal stays the same or only goes up marginally, it would be in NZ, specifically South Island NZ with their flash new stadium.
Opportunity for massive new pathways (short-term), further eating into union territory (short to medium), possibly weakening the AB`s (medium to long), all upside for League and downside for union.

Dont disagree and there are plenty in the plus column for having more NZ NRL clubs, but this is the $ driven NRL. Its unlikely they will bring in another club at a financial loss given the culture at NRLHQ.
And there doesnt seem to be a lot of meat on the table for RL development from the bids like WA govt is putting up. The 'academy' thing is really the only thing we've heard of from any of the bids in terms of investing in development.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Jfh will give far more than afb did

Should be captain too

His metres on early tackles are valuable af

He's a premiership winner leading for the front, if that doesn't lift the troops around him not will. AFB waited like an outside back to take the cream and get all the credit, Johnson too.
They'll be a far better side with those absent.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Id say its very likely that if Perth falls over they will stick to 18 teams until 2032 ish.
Perth was always going to be club 18 due to what it offers in both Govt $ investment for the game in WA and Tv value to Australian broadcasters, PNG is purely happening because of Govt intervention, not due to any NRL strategy. I get the sense NZ2 was the 'we need another club so we arent stuck on 19 now PNG is happening' option. Like Wb said if SKY NZ offer to double the current deal then it may get fast tracked, but that seems highly unlikely. Brisabne3 will be the safety net if PNG fails in a decades time when the money runs out.

I think you'll find more kiwi expats watching RL than West Australians... a kiwi team is more valuable to Australian broadcasting than West Australia.

New Zealand Australians - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Wb1234]

 

[Wb1234]