New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[marlins2.0]

The grim reaper is stalking rugby ... again​

Paul Cully Rugby columnist

April 18, 2026 — 9:30am



Last year, the chair of a struggling Super Rugby club told this masthead: “Everyone wants to go to heaven, but no one wants to die.”
The line referenced his ultimately doomed attempt to get an early release for a player who wanted to move from a stronger club, but it could also apply to Super Rugby as a whole.

Moana Pasifika performing the Tau Moana for Abraham Pole’s 50th match in March.Getty Images
Everyone wants Super Rugby to thrive, or at least claims to, but no one is prepared to make the necessary sacrifices. (The player in question remains on the bench this weekend for the club that refused to release him, stuck behind a Test player.)
The irony of this stubbornness is that resistance to real change could kill Super Rugby completely. The Grim Reaper has everyone in his sights, not just Moana Pasifika, whose demise was effectively confirmed earlier this week.
In fact, as the Super Rugby heavies prepare to gather in Christchurch next weekend for Super Round, they would be well advised to dismiss the delusion that Moana Pasifika’s exit can be easily overlooked.
If the answer to this latest crisis is a lick of paint – a format change or a 10-team full round-robin – they are kidding themselves.

Rugby fans at the Crusader’s game against the Reds.Getty Images
While a full home-and-away set of fixtures would improve the competition, the gain would be fractional, not transformational, if the longer season simply produces the same old group of teams in the playoff positions.
Super Rugby is ill because, for the best part of the decade, it has produced only one winner. Furthermore, in its latest iteration, Super Rugby Pacific, six teams are effectively playoff-bound the minute the squads are announced months before a tackle is made.

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Here’s something else to consider regarding the connection between fan interest and competition unpredictability.
This week, former Super Rugby side the Stormers announced they were on track to average 27,000 fans for each home game in the United Rugby Championship (URC). Clearly, they aren’t pining for Super Rugby.

The Crusaders lifting the trophy after winning the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific grand final.Getty Images
Now, we can argue until we’re blue in the face that the Brumbies or Hurricanes would offer the Stormers sterner opposition than the four struggling Welsh sides or Zebre in the URC, but South African fans have clearly been invigorated by being part of a competition they believe their sides can win.
Some South African derbies in the United Rugby Championship have attracted more than 53,000 fans. Those traditional rivalries obviously hold appeal on their own, but they are being played in a competition featuring a genuine race for the coveted top two spots and the top eight as a whole.
We’re not seeing that in Super Rugby, and I make no apologies for sounding like a broken record when I repeat the following fact: since Super Rugby Pacific was formed, we have had only eight different teams in the top six, with Waratahs and the Highlanders sneaking into sixth place on one occasion each.
That’s a death warrant for any sporting competition in this part of the world.

Of course, Super Rugby’s obituary has been written countless times before. It has been a great survivor, despite the countless format changes and frequent complaints.
But the big difference this time is that the Wallabies are effectively in the international wilderness at the moment, ranked No.8 in the world in the same neighbourhood as Italy, Fiji and Scotland.
The All Blacks are No.2, although Scott Robertson’s recent sacking shows that not even NZ Rugby believes this ranking to be accurate.

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The great defence of Super Rugby over the years was that, yes, it was an imperfect competition but tolerable because it produced strong Wallabies, All Blacks and Springboks sides.
If this is no longer true, the competition will be a high-performance failure, not just one that struggles to get fans through the gate (though broadcast numbers have been encouraging in the past few years).
Therefore, the need for change is pressing.
Surely, those who run and play in the competition can now accept that the rinse and repeat nature of Super Rugby Pacific is a fundamental problem.
Earlier this year, Rob Nichol, the powerful head of the New Zealand Rugby Players Association, suggested to the Herald that the Kiwis returning to the NPC might not be such a bad thing. Super Rugby should be careful about which way the wind is blowing.

Watch every match of Super Rugby Pacific live and exclusive on Stan Sport.

Even with stories like this, the mainstream media tends to focus on the peripheral details rather than the more important minutia.

That is, the crowds are down and the results are predictable, therefore the comp must go. This often ties in with uninspiring All Blacks results. Reality is the issue is a bit more complex an involves some hard truths.

The two comp model doesn't work. Centralized contracts system/blocking players from going overseas doesn't work. The production and presentation is dated, uninspiring, sterile and quite frankly boring. Propping up bleeding unions and franchises with all blacks tests abroad will hurt the sport in the long run. Lacklustre social media presence. Game day experience is very Bush league.

The one good thing they have is the NPC moving to free to air, and it generally draws good crowds. Ironically this was the broadcasters decision, if it were left to the NZRU they'd continue to do the same old shit.

 

[LightLizard]

yeah - the NPC is actually quite good. I remember - back in the day - catching the train down to Dunedin (Carisbrook) to watch the NPC final between Canterbury and Otago it (the City) was buzzing and the crowd was enormous.. I think it was an easy sell out. How good to get those days back eh. !! And the pubs on a Saturday watching the games - crazy loud and busy and different pubs supported different NPC teams - banners etc.. it was great. Oh the good old days - Before Super Rugby - just.
I also played 1st div rugby and prem league the schools wanted us to make a decision - either union or league - if you picked league - then you wouldn't get picked for the 1st 15.

 

[marlins2.0]

yeah - the NPC is actually quite good. I remember - back in the day - catching the train down to Dunedin (Carisbrook) to watch the NPC final between Canterbury and Otago it (the City) was buzzing and the crowd was enormous.. I think it was an easy sell out. How good to get those days back eh. !! And the pubs on a Saturday watching the games - crazy loud and busy and different pubs supported different NPC teams - banners etc.. it was great. Oh the good old days - Before Super Rugby - just.
I also played 1st div rugby and prem league the schools wanted us to make a decision - either union or league - if you picked league - then you wouldn't get picked for the 1st 15.

School league was midweek when I was at school, to allow players to play both codes and/or club footy. Our school blocked anyone from 1st/2nd/C Grade XV or Under 15 As/Bs from playing league. They also blocked a sponsorship deal with a sports store to provide boots and gear as First XV had sponsorship with another store. They blocked an international sportswear brand from providing kit as the First XV had a kit deal with another company. The leaguies eventually had to field an Under 85 team because that's all the players they could muster, and ended up taking out that comp anyway. I couldn't play as it was too tough with transport.

 

[Matua]

Even with stories like this, the mainstream media tends to focus on the peripheral details rather than the more important minutia.

That is, the crowds are down and the results are predictable, therefore the comp must go. This often ties in with uninspiring All Blacks results. Reality is the issue is a bit more complex an involves some hard truths.

The two comp model doesn't work. Centralized contracts system/blocking players from going overseas doesn't work. The production and presentation is dated, uninspiring, sterile and quite frankly boring. Propping up bleeding unions and franchises with all blacks tests abroad will hurt the sport in the long run. Lacklustre social media presence. Game day experience is very Bush league.

The one good thing they have is the NPC moving to free to air, and it generally draws good crowds. Ironically this was the broadcasters decision, if it were left to the NZRU they'd continue to do the same old shit.

TBH, I think there is a slight misconception of how things actually run.

The ABs don't prop up the comps/unions, the comps/unions are essentially expenses of the product. Yes, NZR should be trying their best to make Super and the NPC functional/cost neutral comps in their own right, but the reality is the broadcasters pay for everything, but the big money (relative of course) is for the ABs. Super and the NPC ensure we have players and coaches that flow through to test rugby. To put it in context, how many NRL clubs could survive/be profitable on their own without the broadcasting money? NZ rugby is essentially a similar model just without the ability to get crazy high broadcasting deals like the NRL.

The centralised contracting system has worked for most of the pro era, even now, when it's supposedly not working and NZ rugby is supposedly in a terrible state (despite the fact last year had some of the best rugby on the field and some of the best broadcasting figures in years), and we've had a tumultuous period where we fired our coach, we're still ranked second in the world.

The crowds have been down for years, it's a genuine issue of how to get people back to live rugby, as you say the game day experience isn't great, and fans are choosing the big screen tv over going to the park. I would recommend taking a leaf out of the Warriors book with discount ticketing but I think this is where the franchise model has issues as the franchise holder only has gameday to make money, and they appear to be too scared to lower prices, something that the single owner Warriors could do to immense benefit.

On school league, there was no school league in HB, we just played club on Sundays. A couple of years after I left the school entered the national league comp a few times depending on if they could get the players for a team. They debated including league in Super 8 in the early 2000s but there was too much cross over of players. Although I think one year they played a one off tournament after the rugby season, but that time now is taken up by regional finals and top 4.

 

[Wb1234]

TBH, I think there is a slight misconception of how things actually run.

The ABs don't prop up the comps/unions, the comps/unions are essentially expenses of the product. Yes, NZR should be trying their best to make Super and the NPC functional/cost neutral comps in their own right, but the reality is the broadcasters pay for everything, but the big money (relative of course) is for the ABs. Super and the NPC ensure we have players and coaches that flow through to test rugby. To put it in context, how many NRL clubs could survive/be profitable on their own without the broadcasting money? NZ rugby is essentially a similar model just without the ability to get crazy high broadcasting deals like the NRL.

The centralised contracting system has worked for most of the pro era, even now, when it's supposedly not working and NZ rugby is supposedly in a terrible state (despite the fact last year had some of the best rugby on the field and some of the best broadcasting figures in years), and we've had a tumultuous period where we fired our coach, we're still ranked second in the world.

The crowds have been down for years, it's a genuine issue of how to get people back to live rugby, as you say the game day experience isn't great, and fans are choosing the big screen tv over going to the park. I would recommend taking a leaf out of the Warriors book with discount ticketing but I think this is where the franchise model has issues as the franchise holder only has gameday to make money, and they appear to be too scared to lower prices, something that the single owner Warriors could do to immense benefit.

On school league, there was no school league in HB, we just played club on Sundays. A couple of years after I left the school entered the national league comp a few times depending on if they could get the players for a team. They debated including league in Super 8 in the early 2000s but there was too much cross over of players. Although I think one year they played a one off tournament after the rugby season, but that time now is taken up by regional finals and top 4.

They kind of do

like overseas the club game doesn’t make enough money to pay the wages players get and needs the money from internationals to subsidise it which is the exact opposite of league where the club game has to support internationals.

All blacks test would be a huge part of the tv deal too

 

[Matua]

They kind of do

like overseas the club game doesn’t make enough money to pay the wages players get and needs the money from internationals to subsidise it which is the exact opposite of league where the club game has to support internationals.

All blacks test would be a huge part of the tv deal too

You've kind of missed my point, I didn't say the ABs aren't the drivers of the money, it's just that Super and NPC are expenses in developing that product. If you look at it as propping up then the same is true of the NRL, the NRL props up the clubs with their broadcasting money (and we know from the pre bumper broadcast era that clubs struggle without it). But the reality is for both they're not "propping up", they're developing the product.

 

[Wb1234]

You've kind of missed my point, I didn't say the ABs aren't the drivers of the money, it's just that Super and NPC are expenses in developing that product. If you look at it as propping up then the same is true of the NRL, the NRL props up the clubs with their broadcasting money (and we know from the pre bumper broadcast era that clubs struggle without it). But the reality is for both they're not "propping up", they're developing the product.

Yeh all blacks help fund the whole game

league is lucky in the sense that leagues club put in some of the money to develop juniors but not really enough outside a few clubs

most clubs pay lip service to the idea of actually developing juniors

 

[Matua]

Yeh all blacks help fund the whole game

league is lucky in the sense that leagues club put in some of the money to develop juniors but not really enough outside a few clubs

most clubs pay lip service to the idea of actually developing juniors

I would have thought with all Penrith's success and their juniors that other clubs would be trying to emulate that. Or is that just a pure numbers thing?

 

[Matiunz]

Even with stories like this, the mainstream media tends to focus on the peripheral details rather than the more important minutia.

That is, the crowds are down and the results are predictable, therefore the comp must go. This often ties in with uninspiring All Blacks results. Reality is the issue is a bit more complex an involves some hard truths.

The two comp model doesn't work. Centralized contracts system/blocking players from going overseas doesn't work. The production and presentation is dated, uninspiring, sterile and quite frankly boring. Propping up bleeding unions and franchises with all blacks tests abroad will hurt the sport in the long run. Lacklustre social media presence. Game day experience is very Bush league.

The one good thing they have is the NPC moving to free to air, and it generally draws good crowds. Ironically this was the broadcasters decision, if it were left to the NZRU they'd continue to do the same old shit.

Think if players could ply their trade overseas and still be AB eligible it would be the death blow.
NZ thrives by having players playing together forming combinations, and playing similar styles to the national team if they start pulling in from all areas that disappears. Next players become at the mercy of overseas clubs releasing players (which is not in their best interest to do).
A large part culturally is seeing that kid from your high school or club make the npc team, then players from your NPC team make SR and finally representative. Players aren’t going to stick around to foster that vital development system.
NZ Rugby could well head the way of NZ cricket. When I was younger games were events are able to be watched FTA, games were played over a shorter period and the home series aligned generally with school holidays, we’d get 1-3 games at McLean park and you’d be sure not to miss it.
Now they can barely give away tickets , I personally don’t think I’ve watched a full game in close to a decade, could maybe name 3-4 players in the team.

 

[Wb1234]

I would have thought with all Penrith's success and their juniors that other clubs would be trying to emulate that. Or is that just a pure numbers thing?

Some are like the tigers and dogs most aren’t

easier to be like the chooks and just buy other clubs established stars

tigers were complaining they put millions into juniors then lost most of them to other clubs before they made first grade or just started too

Gould at the dogs has been getting players from all over to put in the lower grades since dogs juniors are poor

Cronulla have a huge junior base, so does Wollongong rest in Sydney are a bit meh

costs around 3 million pa to do it properly and nrl gives very little salary cap reward for doing it

Penrith has a small population than Cronulla and the eastern suburbs

Loads of islanders probably more than Cronulla who obviously play league so Penrith have that advantage

 

[Matua]

Penrith has a small population than Cronulla and the eastern suburbs

I thought that Penrith's juniors area was much larger then Penrith itself and covered a lot of the west where there are good league nurseries?

 

[Matua]

Think if players could ply their trade overseas and still be AB eligible it would be the death blow.
NZ thrives by having players playing together forming combinations, and playing similar styles to the national team if they start pulling in from all areas that disappears. Next players become at the mercy of overseas clubs releasing players (which is not in their best interest to do).
A large part culturally is seeing that kid from your high school or club make the npc team, then players from your NPC team make SR and finally representative. Players aren’t going to stick around to foster that vital development system.
NZ Rugby could well head the way of NZ cricket. When I was younger games were events are able to be watched FTA, games were played over a shorter period and the home series aligned generally with school holidays, we’d get 1-3 games at McLean park and you’d be sure not to miss it.
Now they can barely give away tickets , I personally don’t think I’ve watched a full game in close to a decade, could maybe name 3-4 players in the team.

Yep, 100% agree, if we go for overseas representation in the ABs then Gob will get his wish and NZ rugby will be done.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Yep, 100% agree, if we go for overseas representation in the ABs then Gob will get his wish and NZ rugby will be done.

Rugby league has 1 team in NZ, it's pretty hard for that to sustain the attention of a sport loving public, even though the Wahs are a smash hit.
And there's only 30 spots on the roster also.
As it stands, SR is going to get views in NZ and it's going to get talent, almost by default. There's literally no other supply.
When NZ 2 comes in however.. watching 2 games a week of stacked talent in a gripping contest will kinda fill the cup of most people, they might tune into the odd SR game but it won't be in the conversation at work and school Monday morning.

SR ratings fall away, broadcasters prioritize NRL and revenue shrinks, less talent... And on it goes - that's the death spiral.
I didn't think we'd see it to start playing out before NZ2 but here we are.
NRL is just that good to watch, getting better, getting faster with more talent and more drama.. new teams.. while SR stays sterile.

I'll get my wish, only question is when.

 

[Wb1234]

I thought that Penrith's juniors area was much larger then Penrith itself and covered a lot of the west where there are good league nurseries?

Not that large

smaller area than parramatta for example

Penrith look at Bathurst which obviously is outside their area but places like st Mary’s get loads of juniors

No reason why most of the other Sydney clubs couldn’t have similar pathways success or any other nrl club bar storm

Pretty sure Penrith lga includes st Mary’s rooty hill etc

Junior development is ok in league but not anywhere near where it could be and I’m talking Sydney

qld clubs seem to do better

 

[Matua]

Not that large

smaller area than parramatta for example

Penrith look at Bathurst which obviously is outside their area but places like st Mary’s get loads of juniors

No reason why most of the other Sydney clubs couldn’t have similar pathways success or any other nrl club bar storm

Pretty sure Penrith lga includes st Mary’s rooty hill etc

Junior development is ok in league but not anywhere near where it could be and I’m talking Sydney

qld clubs seem to do better

I'm pretty sure that map is not 100% accurate, I have friends from Blacktown and their nephews play in the Penrith District League.

 

[Wb1234]

I'm pretty sure that map is not 100% accurate, I have friends from Blacktown and their nephews play in the Penrith District League.

I was thinking Blacktown is the border between eels and Penrith but it shows you how big parra tigers Cronulla and even bears territory is

Penrith isn’t that special

 

[Matiunz]

I'm pretty sure that map is not 100% accurate, I have friends from Blacktown and their nephews play in the Penrith District League.

Not sure if it’s “official” but tend to see more Penrith support than Parra (or atleast 50/50) the Blacktown/Hills area.

 

[Matiunz]

I was thinking Blacktown is the border between eels and Penrith but it shows you how big parra tigers Cronulla and even bears territory is

Penrith isn’t that special

I do wonder if Bears will tap into that Hills area in particular when they come in or if locals will see it as purely Perth team.
Very large (and growing) Indian/subcontinent population out that way which doesn’t tend to be into league in a big way

 

[Wb1234]

I do wonder if Bears will tap into that Hills area in particular when they come in or if locals will see it as purely Perth team.
Very large (and growing) Indian/subcontinent population out that way which doesn’t tend to be into league in a big way

bears will be focusing but the issue will be how many want to move to wa vs staying with a Sydney nrl club if they can get one

one of the current wallabies came from Asquith which is in that area