Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[Wb1234]

What other local sport gets $400m from TV?

Everyone knows they are and should be top at some stage though the TV rights will get maxxed out

NRL round is 640 mins. 80 mins halftime in total

AFL 1040 mins. 90 mins halftime.
Then 9 x 1st qtr break.
Then 9 x 3rd qtr break

So again why would that not be more valuable?

What you are saying is correct

the arlc were thinking of 4 x 25 minute quarters a few years back but they didn’t want to mess with the fabric of the game (even though we’ve played quarters before)

it would be a huge boost for tv rights values

NRL game could be cut into quarters

The ARLC is looking at options to increase broadcast money.

www.zerotackle.com

 

[Iamback]

Simple where are the subscribers coming from and what are the viewing figures of Rugby League games vs fumbleball games.

it is not like League hasn’t outrated fumbleball for a number of seasons on Pay.

I don’t even know why this is still a thing - if the leader himself suggests that he gave Foxtel a good deal because they would otherwise catch a cold or that the fumbleball should thank him for their deal then why are we still debating. He is even admitting himself (indirectly) that he undersold it.

He said for them not to go broke. Which is the crux of this convo how much could the next deal expect

Lets use Paramount Plus.

Say they can get 500k viewers across from Fox/Kayo

Rumours are it costs $100k to produce a game that was pre covid. So lets say calling off a screen instead has halved that.

What is the most they could charge $25 per month?

How much do you think they'd lose on a $500m a year deal?

If they lose money on $500m how could they go to $600m?

 

[Iamback]

What you are saying is correct

the arlc were thinking of 4 x 25 minute quarters a few years back but they didn’t want to mess with the fabric of the game (even though we’ve played quarters before)

it would be a huge boost for tv rights values

NRL game could be cut into quarters

The ARLC is looking at options to increase broadcast money.

www.zerotackle.com

If we knew the exact deals, You could break it down to per minute and NRL is in front

 

[baselinepanther]

He said for them not to go broke. Which is the crux of this convo how much could the next deal expect

Lets use Paramount Plus.

Say they can get 500k viewers across from Fox/Kayo

Rumours are it costs $100k to produce a game that was pre covid. So lets say calling off a screen instead has halved that.

What is the most they could charge $25 per month?

How much do you think they'd lose on a $500m a year deal?

If they lose money on $500m how could they go to $600m?

It would be a million subscribers across kayo & foxtel so double all your revenues ...

paramount were prepared to pay racistball 600 mill a year , for upwards of 25 million LESS sets of eyeballs a year across stv / fta ... they'd of lost no less $$ doing that with them ...
There are other factors at play ..
Networks need a marquee sport to drive subscriptions & also harm a major competitor as a double bonus effect
Foxtel losing 1 mill subscribers ( up to 360 mill a year) would be a disaster .. catastrophic
one that would just about see them off

good effing riddance too ...

 

[Colk]

He said for them not to go broke. Which is the crux of this convo how much could the next deal expect

Lets use Paramount Plus.

Say they can get 500k viewers across from Fox/Kayo

Rumours are it costs $100k to produce a game that was pre covid. So lets say calling off a screen instead has halved that.

What is the most they could charge $25 per month?

How much do you think they'd lose on a $500m a year deal?

If they lose money on $500m how could they go to $600m?

Decent argument to a degree, however two things:

1. It is not the responsibility of the leader of the game to be more concerned about the financial position of the broadcaster, particularly one backed by a global company like News Limited then your own. It makes no sense. Firstly, from a logical point of view, in a negotiation you advocate your own position not advocate the position of whom you are negotiating with. Secondly the idea that the Murdochs are going to become insolvent and by extension Foxtel is not likely.

2. No network actually makes money out of sports broadcasting, at least not directly. They overspend relatively for cross promotions and advertising. It’s to the point now, at least for FTA that if you don’t get a high profile sport then nobody will watch your channel (other than occasional reality trash). Essentially the sport should hold the whip hand, not the other way around, because demand significantly outweighs supply.

 

[Iamback]

It would be a million subscribers across kayo & foxtel so double all your revenues ...

paramount were prepared to pay racistball 600 mill a year , for upwards of 25 million LESS sets of eyeballs a year across stv / fta ... they'd of lost no less $$ doing that with them ...
There are other factors at play ..
Networks need a marquee sport to drive subscriptions & also harm a major competitor as a double bonus effect
Foxtel losing 1 mill subscribers ( up to 360 mill a year) would be a disaster .. catastrophic
one that would just about see them off

good effing riddance too ...

Kayo has 1.5m people, How many are on there just for League?

Foxtel is a wide range of channels I doubt one sport alone is keeping that many people.

Has anyone confirmed the actual price or just that they bid?

The question was to Colk but how would you get that money back? There is no way either sport gets anywhere near that back.

Fox works by the notion that it increases viewers for other programs, They can run out of Sky news studios.

Producers and Camera crew can do multiple sports and so on, I just don't see where a crazy deal comes from

 

[Iamback]

Decent argument to a degree, however two things:

1. It is not the responsibility of the leader of the game to be more concerned about the financial position of the broadcaster, particularly one backed by a global company like News Limited then your own. It makes no sense. Firstly, from a logical point of view, in a negotiation you advocate your own position not advocate the position of whom you are negotiating with. Secondly the idea that the Murdochs are going to become insolvent and by extension Foxtel is not likely.

2. No network actually makes money out of sports broadcasting, at least not directly. They overspend relatively for cross promotions and advertising. It’s to the point now, at least for FTA that if you don’t get a high profile sport then nobody will watch your channel (other than occasional reality trash). Essentially the sport should hold the whip hand, not the other way around, because demand significantly outweighs supply.

1. Lets say in that example that Paramount losses $200m a season from that $500m plus investment.

Are they going to bid lower next time? Ch7 and cricket are going through this right now.

A League was on overs the next deal was way less. You run the risk of the rights deal going back wards in the next deal if you push the evelope too far.
Unless you want it like NFL where you are always stopping for ads which damages the product more then possibly taking $50m more would.

It is a fine balance and eventually we can do a proper comparison.

2. In that same scenario ch10 especially on weekends would get a huge lift but the spend is 60/40 pay TV in most deals.

You want subscriptions to the streaming side and not just to 'share' passwords etc and stay.

There lies where I think the hesitation is due to the number of streamers, You need to get enough people who don't like cricket, F1, US sports etc to cancel Kayo or to think NRL with their other programming makes it a better option then Disney Plus or whatever they have.

Again Rugby and A League had modest following on Fox, Fox/Kayo have grown while they get horrible ratings on the new streamers.

So that limits what they will pay, I do think the game gets an increase of $50m-$75m though just not anything crazy. although like with the extra AFL round a 9th game will be added

 

[Wb1234]

looks like the pre season challenge will start next year

 

[Perth Red]

What other local sport gets $400m from TV?

Everyone knows they are and should be top at some stage though the TV rights will get maxxed out

NRL round is 640 mins. 80 mins halftime in total

AFL 1040 mins. 90 mins halftime.
Then 9 x 1st qtr break.
Then 9 x 3rd qtr break

So again why would that not be more valuable?

Double?

 

[Perth Red]

Kayo has 1.5m people, How many are on there just for League?

Foxtel is a wide range of channels I doubt one sport alone is keeping that many people.

Has anyone confirmed the actual price or just that they bid?

The question was to Colk but how would you get that money back? There is no way either sport gets anywhere near that back.

Fox works by the notion that it increases viewers for other programs, They can run out of Sky news studios.

Producers and Camera crew can do multiple sports and so on, I just don't see where a crazy deal comes from

Well you need to include the fta ch10 component in. Let’s say the rumoured $185mill ch7 is paying is correct and ch10 happy to pay nrl that much. That leaves paramount $315mll. 1 million subscribers plus advertising just about does it with the spin offs mentioned earlier.

 

[baselinepanther]

Kayo has 1.5m people, How many are on there just for League?

Foxtel is a wide range of channels I doubt one sport alone is keeping that many people.

Has anyone confirmed the actual price or just that they bid?

The question was to Colk but how would you get that money back? There is no way either sport gets anywhere near that back.

Fox works by the notion that it increases viewers for other programs, They can run out of Sky news studios.

Producers and Camera crew can do multiple sports and so on, I just don't see where a crazy deal comes from

well obvioulsy about 500K just for the NRL on kayo & of the 3 million on foxtel I'd say another 500K just on there for the NRL too, 1 in 6 , some people don't like kayo because of the buffering issues so thats not an outlandish estimate.

I have no doubt now paramounts bid was genuine , they are desperate for marquee content & if they're offering racistball 600mill for the lot in 2025 , they'll happily pay that for the NRL in 2028

 

[Canard]

1. Lets say in that example that Paramount losses $200m a season from that $500m plus investment.

Are they going to bid lower next time? Ch7 and cricket are going through this right now.

A League was on overs the next deal was way less. You run the risk of the rights deal going back wards in the next deal if you push the evelope too far.
Unless you want it like NFL where you are always stopping for ads which damages the product more then possibly taking $50m more would.

It is a fine balance and eventually we can do a proper comparison.

2. In that same scenario ch10 especially on weekends would get a huge lift but the spend is 60/40 pay TV in most deals.

You want subscriptions to the streaming side and not just to 'share' passwords etc and stay.

There lies where I think the hesitation is due to the number of streamers, You need to get enough people who don't like cricket, F1, US sports etc to cancel Kayo or to think NRL with their other programming makes it a better option then Disney Plus or whatever they have.

Again Rugby and A League had modest following on Fox, Fox/Kayo have grown while they get horrible ratings on the new streamers.

So that limits what they will pay, I do think the game gets an increase of $50m-$75m though just not anything crazy. although like with the extra AFL round a 9th game will be added

Who runs the risk of it going backwards?

It seems like you are claiming that the NRL shouldn't try to increase there TV money just in case it hurts the broadcaster?

looks like the pre season challenge will start next year

Looking at the draw, that's just the name given to the two trial game weekends, and nothing more.

 

[Wb1234]

Who runs the risk of it going backwards?

It seems like you are claiming that the NRL shouldn't try to increase there TV money just in case it hurts the broadcaster?

Looking at the draw, that's just the name given to the two trial game weekends, and nothing more.

Sure but it’s going to mean more tv money when they renegotiate

 

[Iamback]

Who runs the risk of it going backwards?

It seems like you are claiming that the NRL shouldn't try to increase there TV money just in case it hurts the broadcaster?

Where did I say it shouldn't increase? I said a $50-$75m increase is a realistic price. Chasing the $200m increase as some have mentioned will see the deal after go backwards

Won't result in the uptake and as is the case with some sports cricket, A League had a reduced deal. Now has almost vanished from TV.

Is going for $600m next up to drop back to $400m next deal due to declining ratings, Subs etc

Better then a steady increase?

That is what goes into these sort of discussions

 

[docbrown]

Some time ago before the takeover Ten were actually pushing to buy every game but upper management were concerned that Foxtel would leave them holding the bag so they cooled on it. Now they essentially have a global brand as their own streaming service - it's a whole new ball game.

Consider for example a weekly schedule like this:

Thursday Night Football -- Paramount+ ad-free exclusive game
6:30 pregame -- 7:10 kickoff -- 8:50 post game and panel show -- 10:00 end -- 3.5 hr block

Friday Night Double Header -- Channel 10 two games also simulcast ad-free on Paramount+
6:30 pregame -- 7:00 kickoff one -- 8:40 kickoff two -- 10:20 post games -- 11:00 end -- 4.5 hr block
(Friday teams: at least 1 QLD team, 1 Mel/Perth team and 2 NSW teams most weeks (can vary) -- 2-3 metro target) (10 Bold channel flip in non-targeted states like SA, TAS)

Saturday Football -- Paramount+ ad-free three exclusive games
12:10 & 2:00 NRLW kickoffs -- 3:40 pregame -- 4:15, 6:15 & 8:15 NRL mens kickoffs -- 10:00 post game -- 11:00 end -- 11 hr block

Sunday Afternoon Football -- Channel 10 one game also simulcast ad-free on Paramount+
12:30 pregame -- 1:05 NRLW kickoff -- 2:45 pregame -- 3:15 NRL mens kickoff -- 4:55 post game -- 5:00 break into News -- 4.5 hr block

Sunday Night Football -- Channel 10 exclusive game -- no Paramount+ coverage -- top game of the week
5:30 pregame -- 5:45 kickoff -- 7:25pm post game -- 7:30 break into Sunday night programming -- 2 hr block (so including afternoons 6.5hr total on Sundays)
(Sunday arvo/night teams: at least 1 QLD team, 1 Mel/Perth team and 2 NSW teams most weeks (can vary) -- 2-3 metro target) (10 Bold channel flip in non-targeted states like SA, TAS)

Monday Night Football -- Paramount+ ad-free exclusive game
6:30 pregame -- 7:10 kickoff -- 8:50 post game and panel show -- 10:00 end -- 3.5 hr block

That's how you get a record breaking broadcast deal.

 

[Wb1234]

Where did I say it shouldn't increase? I said a $50-$75m increase is a realistic price. Chasing the $200m increase as some have mentioned will see the deal after go backwards

Won't result in the uptake and as is the case with some sports cricket, A League had a reduced deal. Now has almost vanished from TV.

Is going for $600m next up to drop back to $400m next deal due to declining ratings, Subs etc

Better then a steady increase?

That is what goes into these sort of discussions

Afl got 500 million

if we get 70 million increase (which tbh is a low forecast) the two tv deals are equal

 

[Canard]

Where did I say it shouldn't increase? I said a $50-$75m increase is a realistic price. Chasing the $200m increase as some have mentioned will see the deal after go backwards

Won't result in the uptake and as is the case with some sports cricket, A League had a reduced deal. Now has almost vanished from TV.

Is going for $600m next up to drop back to $400m next deal due to declining ratings, Subs etc

Better then a steady increase?

That is what goes into these sort of discussions

Go for the maximum $ always. Always.

Run me through the great gamut of major Codes that have had to accept less money in recent TV deals?

Remember everyone said the last round of TV deals was the peak of the market

 

[Iamback]

Afl got 500 million

if we get 70 million increase (which tbh is a low forecast) the two tv deals are equal

Which given the reasons I listed earlier for why AFL should get more is a great outcome for RL and should see the value of the product not drop for the 2033 TV deal. Which is the key part

 

[Steel Saints]

Some time ago before the takeover Ten were actually pushing to buy every game but upper management were concerned that Foxtel would leave them holding the bag so they cooled on it. Now they essentially have a global brand as their own streaming service - it's a whole new ball game.

Consider for example a weekly schedule like this:

Thursday Night Football -- Paramount+ ad-free exclusive game
6:30 pregame -- 7:10 kickoff -- 8:50 post game and panel show -- 10:00 end -- 3.5 hr block

Friday Night Double Header -- Channel 10 two games also simulcast ad-free on Paramount+
6:30 pregame -- 7:00 kickoff one -- 8:40 kickoff two -- 10:20 post games -- 11:00 end -- 4.5 hr block
(Friday teams: at least 1 QLD team, 1 Mel/Perth team and 2 NSW teams most weeks (can vary) -- 2-3 metro target) (10 Bold channel flip in non-targeted states like SA, TAS)

Saturday Football -- Paramount+ ad-free three exclusive games
12:10 & 2:00 NRLW kickoffs -- 3:40 pregame -- 4:15, 6:15 & 8:15 NRL mens kickoffs -- 10:00 post game -- 11:00 end -- 11 hr block

Sunday Afternoon Football -- Channel 10 one game also simulcast ad-free on Paramount+
12:30 pregame -- 1:05 NRLW kickoff -- 2:45 pregame -- 3:15 NRL mens kickoff -- 4:55 post game -- 5:00 break into News -- 4.5 hr block

Sunday Night Football -- Channel 10 exclusive game -- no Paramount+ coverage -- top game of the week
5:30 pregame -- 5:45 kickoff -- 7:25pm post game -- 7:30 break into Sunday night programming -- 2 hr block (so including afternoons 6.5hr total on Sundays)
(Sunday arvo/night teams: at least 1 QLD team, 1 Mel/Perth team and 2 NSW teams most weeks (can vary) -- 2-3 metro target) (10 Bold channel flip in non-targeted states like SA, TAS)

Monday Night Football -- Paramount+ ad-free exclusive game
6:30 pregame -- 7:10 kickoff -- 8:50 post game and panel show -- 10:00 end -- 3.5 hr block

That's how you get a record breaking broadcast deal.

Very comprehensive schedule. You certainly put in the time, effort and thought process. But I'll pick a bone or two with your schedule.

With Friday night, I'd put an NRLW game at 6:30pm, followed by the men's @ 8:05pm. NRLW games go for 70 minutes. The 8:40pm Friday kick off is too late to start a game.

Saturday schedule:
NRLW
12pm -1:40pm
1:40pm - 3:20pm

NRL Pre game 3:20 - 3:30pm
3:30pm - 5:30pm
5:30pm - 7:30pm
7:30pm - 9:30pm.
Post game 9:30pm - 10:30pm.

And on Sunday, the NRL schedule would be:
Pre game 12:30pm
1pm - 3pm
3pm - 5pm
5:30pm - 7:30pm.
Post game: 7:30pm - 8:30pm

When the NRL expands to 9 games a week, we need to have 3 Sunday games, especially if you want to increase crowds.

 

[Iamback]

Go for the maximum $ always. Always.

Run me through the great gamut of major Codes that have had to accept less money in recent TV deals?

Remember everyone said the last round of TV deals was the peak of the market

Didn't AFL knock back $600m from Paramount? That is more than Fox/Ch7 are paying

Super Rugby was getting $50m from Fox. Took $33m a year for the FTA coverage on Stan/9

Sometimes less is more when looking at the bigger picture