Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[stratocaster]

So much doom and gloom. I don't think you guys appreciate how much simply having 9 games changes things.

It means potentially 4 FTA games per week - that alone means there's a 33% increase of ad sells during NRL FTA broadcasting.

If 7 do buy Monday night football and State of Origin, you now have two FTA networks competing for rugby league viewership. You will see them try to out compete each other and in turn that flows into all secondary promotion - more news stories about NRL, more NRL related programs, more in-house ads for NRL programming etc.

To be honest, the best thing that could happen is 9 keeps Thursday & Friday NRL, 7 gets Monday & State of Origin and 10 get Sunday evening football. NRL would dominate the FTA sports landscape.

It is important though for ad-free simulcasting to remain on just one streaming platform as people don't want to pay for multiple services.

But at the end of the day, streamers care less about if your games goes for 2 hours or 3 hours. The difference between AFL & NRL in this regard is moot. That's why they'll go from a 54 minute episode of a show and then the next is 23 minutes. That's also why they make 6-13 episodes of a show per season, not 22-25. Why make one when you can make 3 different ones? Even a full season show is only six months of the year.

Ultimately, they're not making their $$$ from the in-program advertising. What they care about most is that you're another icon on their content library that's going to draw new subscribers and stop subscriber churn.

NRL is content that basically goes from February to October now and has only a 3 month break. But it doesn't have the mid season audience lulls that a 25 episode network show has. It doesn't have the inconsistency of trying to get audiences to switch between 3-4 different shows in that timeframe (like going from I'm A Celebrity to Survivor to Masterchef etc). It is one consistent audience for 9 months. Very little other content does that. It's a great retainer to keep existing subscribers, which is what streamers need in the consolidation age of streaming, to keep them going elsewhere.

 

[BuffaloRules]

So much doom and gloom. I don't think you guys appreciate how much simply having 9 games changes things.

It means potentially 4 FTA games per week - that alone means there's a 33% increase of ad sells during NRL FTA broadcasting.

If 7 do buy Monday night football and State of Origin, you now have two FTA networks competing for rugby league viewership. You will see them try to out compete each other and in turn that flows into all secondary promotion - more news stories about NRL, more NRL related programs, more in-house ads for NRL programming etc.

To be honest, the best thing that could happen is 9 keeps Thursday & Friday NRL, 7 gets Monday & State of Origin and 10 get Sunday evening football. NRL would dominate the FTA sports landscape.

It is important though for ad-free simulcasting to remain on just one streaming platform as people don't want to pay for multiple services.

But at the end of the day, streamers care less about if your games goes for 2 hours or 3 hours. That's why they make 6-13 episodes of a show per season, not 22-25. What they care about most is that you're another icon on their content library that's going to draw new subscribers and stop subscriber churn. NRL is content that basically goes from February to October now. Very little other content does that. It's a great retainer to keep existing subscribers, which is what streamers need in the consolidation age of streaming, to keep them going elsewhere.

There is a difference between doom and gloom and just looking at things logically …

Under the current deal , the main chunk of the money comes from the streamer …. The more games you show on FTA might have an impact on the take up of subscription services ..that’s what I would be arguing if I was them..if there are 5 games a weeks on FTA TV as you are proposing ..even I might consider just being satisfied with that and bin Kayo…

Having more content overall is fine … but the main way that the needle is going to get moved to the levels we read about in the papers is with multiple broadcasters bidding themselves up … Let’s hope that is going to happen … that part is the thing that is missing from the heady speculation doing the rounds at the moment

 

[stratocaster]

There is a difference between doom and gloom and just looking at things logically …

Under the current deal , the main chunk of the money comes from the streamer …. The more games you show on FTA might have an impact on the take up of subscription services ..that’s what I would be arguing if I was them..if there are 5 games a weeks on FTA TV as you are proposing ..even I might consider just being satisfied with that and bin Kayo…

Having more content overall is fine … but the main way that the needle is going to get moved to the levels we read about in the papers is with multiple broadcasters bidding themselves up … Let’s hope that is going to happen … that part is the thing that is missing from the heady speculation doing the rounds at the moment

You might have misread, I said 4 on FTA, not 5 -- Thursday, Friday, Sunday & Monday -- all primetime for maximum $$$.

Whatever subscription service gets it would still have 5 exclusive games, just like they do now, but also an additional simulcast game. So it's technically more content for the streamer, not less.

I agree about multiple broadcasters - I want to see the FTA content split across 2-3 FTA networks.

 

[BuffaloRules]

You might have misread, I said 4 on FTA, not 5 -- Thursday, Friday, Sunday & Monday -- all primetime for maximum $$$.

Whatever subscription service gets it would still have 5 exclusive games, just like they do now, but also an additional simulcast game. So it's technically more content for the streamer, not less.

I agree about multiple broadcasters - I want to see the FTA content split across 2-3 FTA networks.

Ok … I was assuming the Sunday arvo game to remain on 9 …. If they have a game a week less than that will have an impact on what they pay no doubt …

Whilst the streamer has more content ..the exclusivity is an important factor too …they will only have 5 exclusive games as they do now so nothing has changed there really … if they are going to get double the amount overall than that is going to require a big jump in the subscription part which is my concern when not much is changing ( one extra game a week shared with FTA)

 

[stratocaster]

Ok … I was assuming the Sunday arvo game to remain on 9 …. If they have a game a week less than that will have an impact on what they pay no doubt …

Whilst the streamer has more content ..the exclusivity is an important factor too …they will only have 5 exclusive games as they do now so nothing has changed there really … if they are going to get double the amount overall than that is going to require a big jump in the subscription part which is my concern when not much is changing ( one extra game a week shared with FTA)

I'm just talking hypothetically. Any game in prime time is inherently more valuable to FTA broadcasters than afternoon games. Hence, Sunday night over Sunday afternoon if you want more FTA dollars. Adding Monday night is more valuable than another Saturday or Sunday day game etc.

Part of the increase will come from competitive tension. If 7 are genuine about MNF and Origin, that's some of it. If 10 get their act together and realise that they need some real event programming, then there's more.

Competitive tension on streaming - it will like be 9/Stan vs DAZN/Foxtel. Maybe Paramount/10 puts in a simulcast/FTA offer. Basically, streaming is in a consolidation period. There's too many streamers charging too much for limited content, so viewers are now being more selective in what they buy. So now you're seeing the cable system come back, this time in a streaming format. Basically here's what's at stake for them:

9/Stan -->9 may not exist as an entity in 20 years if it doesn't have a strong reliable streaming arm.

DAZN --> The foxtel model collapses without the NRL driving hundreds of thousands of subscriptions.

10/Paramount/WB/HBO --> They're in that cable consolidation phase, so who knows how much on the radar Australia is at the moment. However, if they miss out it'll be years before they get another bite at a major sport. I'd argue if 9 has 20 years, 10 has 10 years.

Those stakes are what will hopefully driver streaming competitive tension.

Ultimately, if it's to the NRL net benefit to go with a 3 FTA+6 Streamer option, then so be it. There's no guarantees in this. I have my own suspicions as to who will bid and for what, but there's a lot of back and forth in these discussions.

 

[BuffaloRules]

I Have no concerns really about the FTA component doubling ..probably only need one of 7 or 10 stepping up for a game a week to tick that box… maybe a bit more even with a deserved increase in the value of Origin

The competitive tension absolutely needs to happen on the streaming but no one new is bidding for it yet as far as know publicly … it simply has to happen to get more than $600mil a year

 

[Colk]

I Have no concerns really about the FTA component doubling ..probably only need one of 7 or 10 stepping up for a game a week to tick that box… maybe a bit more even with a deserved increase in the value of Origin

The competitive tension absolutely needs to happen on the streaming but no one new is bidding for it yet as far as know publicly … it simply has to happen to get more than $600mil a year

It would be somewhat embarassing if they don’t get more then $600 million, considering the endless spruiking of V’Landys. It will be interesting how much the gambling regulations impact the deal

 

[Captain Apollo]

A couple of points.

Firstly, FTA TV is not the powerhouse financial industry it once was. Channel 7 are not in great shape financially, and Nine just want to keep cutting costs, and Channel 10 are in a no mans land financially. I'm not saying the NRL won't get any increase at all from FTA TV sources, but to expect a big increase the way some in here are talking are fanciful in my opinion.

Secondly, bringing back Monday night football?! Dream on. Its a financial dead weight to the clubs as it costs them big time in ticket sales and match day revenues lost due to lower attendances. Also it creates scheduling problems for the NRL as it would increase the odds of clubs have more 5 or less days turn around between matches. It's a combination of those reasons that Monday night football was canned in the first place. I do not see it returning at all.

Finally, expecting morte game on FTA channels? Sorry, but again I think it unrealistic. The TV channels just won't front the money up to pay for them.

 

[Colk]

A couple of points.

Firstly, FTA TV is not the powerhouse financial industry it once was. Channel 7 are not in great shape financially, and Nine just want to keep cutting costs, and Channel 10 are in a no mans land financially. I'm not saying the NRL won't get any increase at all from FTA TV sources, but to expect a big increase the way some in here are talking are fanciful in my opinion.

Secondly, bringing back Monday night football?! Dream on. Its a financial dead weight to the clubs as it costs them big time in ticket sales and match day revenues lost due to lower attendances. Also it creates scheduling problems for the NRL as it would increase the odds of clubs have more 5 or less days turn around between matches. It's a combination of those reasons that Monday night football was canned in the first place. I do not see it returning at all.

Finally, expecting morte game on FTA channels? Sorry, but again I think it unrealistic. The TV channels just won't front the money up to pay for them.

Great post

 

[stratocaster]

I Have no concerns really about the FTA component doubling ..probably only need one of 7 or 10 stepping up for a game a week to tick that box… maybe a bit more even with a deserved increase in the value of Origin

The competitive tension absolutely needs to happen on the streaming but no one new is bidding for it yet as far as know publicly … it simply has to happen to get more than $600mil a year

I wouldn't go off what's happening publicly. It's like picking stocks. If you're making your bets based on what you read in the media, you're already behind the eight ball. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors but my guess is:

Channel 7= Monday Night Football, State of Origin, Internationals - potentially including streaming exclusivity for those events.

Channel 9/Stan = 3-4 FTA games, State of Origin, Internationals, all games simulcast on Stan.

Channel 10/Paramount = hard to say - might be like 7 and dip it in for 1 FTA game/State of Origin or be like 9 and go all-in. Depends on how much their house is in order.

DAZN/Foxtel = 9 simulcast, minimum of 5 exclusive.

Netflix/Disney/Amazon = single event games - Anzac Night or eve, Easter games, King's Birthday, potentially a final or two. If I had to guess, this is what Global Round is being prepped by PVL for.

 

[Foreign Legion]

A couple of points.

Firstly, FTA TV is not the powerhouse financial industry it once was. Channel 7 are not in great shape financially, and Nine just want to keep cutting costs, and Channel 10 are in a no mans land financially. I'm not saying the NRL won't get any increase at all from FTA TV sources, but to expect a big increase the way some in here are talking are fanciful in my opinion.

Secondly, bringing back Monday night football?! Dream on. Its a financial dead weight to the clubs as it costs them big time in ticket sales and match day revenues lost due to lower attendances. Also it creates scheduling problems for the NRL as it would increase the odds of clubs have more 5 or less days turn around between matches. It's a combination of those reasons that Monday night football was canned in the first place. I do not see it returning at all.

Finally, expecting morte game on FTA channels? Sorry, but again I think it unrealistic. The TV channels just won't front the money up to pay for them.

The reason why Nine, Seven and Ten aren't in great shape is because they keep putting on the same shit shows.

Every year, Australian Idol, MAFS, Australia's Got Talent, I'm a Celebrity, Master Chef...
F me it's been like this for 15 years!

 

[stratocaster]

A couple of points.

Firstly, FTA TV is not the powerhouse financial industry it once was. Channel 7 are not in great shape financially, and Nine just want to keep cutting costs, and Channel 10 are in a no mans land financially. I'm not saying the NRL won't get any increase at all from FTA TV sources, but to expect a big increase the way some in here are talking are fanciful in my opinion.

Secondly, bringing back Monday night football?! Dream on. Its a financial dead weight to the clubs as it costs them big time in ticket sales and match day revenues lost due to lower attendances. Also it creates scheduling problems for the NRL as it would increase the odds of clubs have more 5 or less days turn around between matches. It's a combination of those reasons that Monday night football was canned in the first place. I do not see it returning at all.

Finally, expecting morte game on FTA channels? Sorry, but again I think it unrealistic. The TV channels just won't front the money up to pay for them.

I'm in agreement about FTA's financial state. Hence why this is do or die for them.

Whichever networks don't have either NRL or AFL on them won't exist 10-20 years from now. Sport and the occasional reality program is the only thing keeping them afloat. And the two major sports leagues are the only things with the content volume, consistency and in-built audience to help them survive the transition. NRL is actually GROWING its media audiences. Do you know how rare that is these days?

I fully expect 9/Stan to throw the whole hog in to cut out everyone else.

What you're saying about Monday night football is irrelevant to the discussion. What a club will lose in sales is more than made up by what the NRL would gain from the time slot. As for scheduling, we're in the AI era now, it's fine.

I think we're most likely to see 3 games on FTA but if it's a 3 way FTA bid, yes it may go to 4.

 

[Colk]

I'm in agreement about FTA's financial state. Hence why this is do or die for them.

Whichever networks don't have either NRL or AFL on them won't exist 10-20 years from now. Sport and the occasional reality program is the only thing keeping them afloat. And the two major sports leagues are the only things with the content volume, consistency and in-built audience to help them survive the transition. NRL is actually GROWING its media audiences. Do you know how rare that is these days?

I fully expect 9/Stan to throw the whole hog in to cut out everyone else.

What you're saying about Monday night football is irrelevant to the discussion. What a club will lose in sales is more than made up by what the NRL would gain from the time slot. As for scheduling, we're in the AI era now, it's fine.

I think we're most likely to see 3 games on FTA but if it's a 3 way FTA bid, yes it may go to 4.

You were making solid counter arguments until the AI thing. AI hasn’t stopped people complaining about draws. For example I am seeing teams travel interstate with a five day turnaround. Adding Monday Night Football to Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday coupled with Perth and PNG (you know five and six hour flights) would be too difficult.

 

[stratocaster]

The reason why Nine, Seven and Ten aren't in great shape is because they keep putting on the same shit shows.

Every year, Australian Idol, MAFS, Australia's Got Talent, I'm a Celebrity, Master Chef...
F me it's been like this for 15 years!

MAFS is the only one of those shows that is retaining its audience numbers. The others have all declined significantly and are suffering from franchise fatigue. 10 has the Traitors rights which is big now overseas but I'm not expecting much based on the cast list I saw.

And yet in comparison, NRL is growing. Are there many programs these days that can fill a time slot for 27-31 weeks of the year with consistent audiences?

 

[stratocaster]

You were making solid counter arguments until the AI thing. AI hasn’t stopped people complaining about draws. For example I am seeing teams travel interstate with a five day turnaround. Adding Monday Night Football to Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday coupled with Perth and PNG (you know five and six hour flights) would be too difficult.

The NRL is already using an AI generated draw. They're never going back. You are going to have some teams at some point have five day turnarounds. You can eliminate them but it comes with drawbacks. What AI can do is assign a point value to those five day turnarounds and designs thousands of draws that minimise those. When Monday Night football last aired, that technology didn't exist.

The thing is the NRL doesn't just care about five day turnarounds. They care about other things like Perth & Melbourne games during AFL gather round, maximum QLD and Sydney derby games, two repeats of rivalry games, ANZAC day games, Easter games, byes around origin etc. They then assign weights to them based upon their importance. Every draw simulated has points values associated with how well the simulation met these goals.

So yeah, you can have that draw with no five day turnarounds. But if it screws up all those other things, is it worth it? Considering attendance increases recently, I'd argue they're mostly getting the draw right with this technology. And as anyone knows with AI, the technology is only going to improve.

 

[Colk]

The NRL is already using an AI generated draw. They're never going back. You are going to have some teams at some point have five day turnarounds. You can eliminate them but it comes with drawbacks. What AI can do is assign a point value to those five day turnarounds and designs thousands of draws that minimise those. When Monday Night football last aired, that technology didn't exist.

The thing is the NRL doesn't just care about five day turnarounds. They care about other things like Perth & Melbourne games during AFL gather round, maximum QLD and Sydney derby games, two repeats of rivalry games, ANZAC day games, Easter games, byes around origin etc. They then assign weights to them based upon their importance. Every draw simulated has points values associated with how well the simulation met these goals.

So yeah, you can have that draw with no five day turnarounds. But if it screws up all those other things, is it worth it? Considering attendance increases recently, I'd argue they're mostly getting the draw right with this technology. And as anyone knows with AI, the technology is only going to improve.

You’re not telling me something I don’t already know. Essentially the draw, like everything else in the game, benefits certain clubs. That’s why I am criticising it.

 

[flippikat]

You were making solid counter arguments until the AI thing. AI hasn’t stopped people complaining about draws. For example I am seeing teams travel interstate with a five day turnaround. Adding Monday Night Football to Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday coupled with Perth and PNG (you know five and six hour flights) would be too difficult.

I think having an odd number of teams (eg 19 when Perth & PNG are added) helps scheduling with all that travel and possibly Monday night games returning, as the required weekly bye can be scheduled for a team which otherwise would have had unreal demands placed on it's players.

Of course, an odd number of teams doesn't typically last long, and broadcasters will be keen to have 20 teams & 10 games per weekend.. but for a while it will be useful.

 

[insert.pause]

Nine reportedly bid $550m pa for the AFL rights, that was primarily with Stan in mind, not FTA, so that’s your starting point. Then throw in NZ rights, origin, nrlw & internationals and it’s not that hard to see it get to $600m pa. Then there’s always the wildcard of whether or not paramount/ten are a stalking horse, which would only further increase the outlay for Nine/DAZN. Just keeping exclusivity of origin & GF for Fta will come at a cost as DAZN look to pinch the simulcast.

There’s no question the ad market isn’t what it once was for fta, but by all reports the nrl has done a very good job over the last few years to increase its audience on STV, and with Newscorp now out of fox the rights are ripe for the picking for the next 5-10years with a credible & established rival in either STAN or Paramount.

 

[i0Nic]

600m has gotta be the baseline for this deal, anything less will be a failure

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

I fully expect 9/Stan to throw the whole hog in to cut out everyone.

Yeah they`ll want a long contract as well so they can start to build a whole ecosystem (god I hate using that word) around NRL.