Next TV rights deal part 2

[ek999]

Nine asx announcement said no deal has been done on any transaction, but I think wiedler is right and it will be done today. Not sure how bringing it forward will impact broadcast revenue in the next two years, since both nine & fox would be giving something up they arent likely going to pay more then they are already contracted to.

Link to their announcement http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151126/pdf/4339pvflv21rpg.pdf

 

[Captain Apollo]

Looks to me that most of today's media reports are to be taken with a very large grain of salt.

 

[insert.pause]

News Corp chief executive Robert Thomson has flown into Sydney to seal a new National Rugby League TV rights deal.

It’s understood Mr Thomson participated in a marathon round of late talks last night, fronting negotiations for News Corp’s sports programming subsidiary Fox Sports.

A record deal could see the NRL secure a $1.85 billion, five-year rights agreement with Fox, the Nine Network and Telstra.

But the NRL could reap up to $2 billion when international rights are sold.

The Australian rights include the free-to-air, digital and subscription rights, but not the overseas rights.

Under the current deal, the NRL reaps around $20 million a year from foreign broadcasters.

There are suggestions a historic agreement could be signed as early as today, although sources close to the negotiations told The Australian this morning that an agreement is yet been reached.

It’s believed the sides are closer to a breakthrough on Fox’s purchase of the crucial Saturday night game from Nine for about $35 million a year, or $175 million across a contract set to run from 2018 to 2022.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-leads-nrl-talks/story-e6frg996-1227623599578

 

[insert.pause]

Nine Entertainment Co would reduce its bill for the television rights to the National Rugby League by $300 million to $625 million over five years, under a proposed deal with News Corp, it is believed.

Fairfax Media understands News Corp is seeking to finalise its own deal with the NRL on Thursday and is set to pay more than $1 billion for a revised rights package, which will include exclusivity to Saturday night games for most of the season.

However, it is believed Nine will retain about five Saturday night games at the end of each season.
The new structure would be introduced progressively over the 2016 season and into 2017, with Monday night football initially remaining on Foxtel.

Fairfax Media understands the NRL commission will meet on Thursday morning to sign the final deal, the details of which remain subject to change.

It's believed that Fox Sports, under the proposed agreement, will simulcast Nine's games for about $25 million a season, which will reduce Nine's bill by $125 million over the five-year deal.

Combined with the $35 million per season reduction for giving back the Saturday night game to Fox Sports, for $175 million over five years, Nine's total bill for its NRL rights is expected to be about $625 million, down from the $925 million deal it struck in August.

Estimates suggest the total NRL rights package could be worth $1.8 billion over five years, including pay television, free-to-air, digital and international rights.

The current TV rights run until the end of the 2017 season.

Nine confirmed on Thursday morning that was in negotiations with the Australian Rugby League Commission, after Fairfax Media revealed on Wednesday night that News Corp was poised to sign a new deal with the NRL.
"Nine confirms that it is in discussions with the ARLC and Fox Sports about a potential variation to Nine's rights to broadcast NRL matches. No agreement has been reached on any transaction," Nine said in a statement.
"Should an agreement be reached, Nine will make an appropriate announcement to the market in accordance with its disclosure obligations."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/medi...00-million-20151125-gl8c2q.html#ixzz3sYAxApR3
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

 

[Cumberland Throw]

If its simulcast why cant nine just keep saturday night ? im hearing they may hang onto the last 6 rounds for sat night FTA..

 

[docbrown]

Looks to me that most of today's media reports are to be taken with a very large grain of salt.

I'm not convinced the sports reporters that people are getting this information from even know any of the specifics, except mainly for knowing that meetings are currently occurring (which isn't that hard to find out). The NRL no longer leaks like a siv.

As for this notion that the game has already been "sold" back to the NRL, I doubt they would have done that unless they were absolutely certain what the finals terms would be. I mean what then prevents Foxtel from reneging? I think it's more likely an "in principle" acceptance. The language is important because ideally the final sale would occur when the final format of all the rights are signed.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's an announcement today, tomorrow or next week as my gut feeling like others was before Christmas. I'll reserve judgment until the final deal is announced.

 

[Cumberland Throw]

As an older women once said to me as a 17 year old.

Slow down what's the rush.

Sage advice for nrl

 

[insert.pause]

my feeling is it's definitely on and a deal will be announced within hours rather than days.

 

[LESStar58]

As an older women once said to me as a 17 year old.

Slow down what's the rush.

Sage advice for nrl

:lol::lol::lol:

Sure, Cumbo! ;-)

I also question all of these media reports.

The Commision have got News and Foxtel on toast and they know it. Make them sweat a little longer.

 

[docbrown]

As an older women once said to me as a 17 year old.

Slow down what's the rush.

Sage advice for nrl

I will say that Saturday 5 match compromise rings true to me as being a legitimate potential compromise - remember Thursday night football.

I would like to point out this change in News Corp language:

A record deal could see the NRL secure a $1.85 billion, five-year rights agreement with Fox, the Nine Network and Telstra.

But the NRL could reap up to $2 billion when international rights are sold.

Previously the $1.85 billion included international rights and sponsorship. This reads to me as News Corp re-writing history to pretend that its reports were accurate all along (people forget the specifics).

If this is true including sponsorship and New Zealand it could end up $2.05 - $2.15 billion. That said it's unclear of what time frame (you'd think they'd want to align with the AFL so as not to repeat this saga) but also as to whether or not it include compensation.

I think this change in language is indicative of upwards pressure on the final figure.

 

[docbrown]

my feeling is it's definitely on and a deal will be announced within hours rather than days.

Same but I can see Friday 6pm being the sticking point for fair compensation or a reduction in the number of games played in that slot.

 

[insert.pause]

I will say that Saturday 5 match compromise rings true to me as being a legitimate potential compromise - remember Thursday night football.

I would like to point out this change in News Corp language:

A record deal could see the NRL secure a $1.85 billion, five-year rights agreement with Fox, the Nine Network and Telstra.

But the NRL could reap up to $2 billion when international rights are sold.

Previously the $1.85 billion included international rights and sponsorship. This reads to me as News Corp re-writing history to pretend that its reports were accurate all along (people forget the specifics).

If this is true including sponsorship and New Zealand it could end up $2.05 - $2.15 billion. That said it's unclear of what time frame (you'd think they'd want to align with the AFL so as not to repeat this sage) but also as to whether or not it include compensate.

I think this change in language is indicative of upwards pressure on the final figure.

it's always usually announced to beat expectations, I think they will push it closer to 2bn than 1.85, before international rights.

 

[BuffaloRules]

So $1.85 Bil not including International rights?

Nine - $625M
Telstra - $200M

Would leave Fox at $1.05Bil...

Need to squeeze them harder...

 

[insert.pause]

Same but I can see Friday 6pm being the sticking point for fair compensation or a reduction in the number of games played in that slot.

I think the NRL are giving themselves a year to work out how to schedule it, giving us a bit of a stopgap draw next season before a 6 year cycle incorporating 6pm friday. Might even see a mixture of Sunday/friday night STV games with the majority of the friday games played in NZ, which could also boost the NZ rights. I think we will see a lot more games shift to NZ to compliment the majority of Warriors games.

 

[docbrown]

it's always usually announced to beat expectations, I think they will push it closer to 2bn than 1.85, before international rights.

I guess in that case you're estimating a total deal of $2.1 to $2.2b - that's what Gould was indicating.

What your saying about beating expectations is typically true and it could happen but remember every dollar the Australian TV & streaming rights goes over $1.85b can be spun by others into a story of Foxtel's failure. This is also about loss of face after their grandstanding and maintaining the narrative.

 

[docbrown]

I think the NRL are giving themselves a year to work out how to schedule it, giving us a bit of a stopgap draw next season before a 6 year cycle incorporating 6pm friday. Might even see a mixture of Sunday/friday night STV games with the majority of the friday games played in NZ, which could also boost the NZ rights. I think we will see a lot more games shift to NZ to compliment the majority of Warriors games.

That's a pretty logical approach. Except if I'm not mistaken, Friday nights in NZ usually have at least 1 local Super Rugby match whereas that tends to thin out the rest of the week - that can affect things. I still think the numbers for New Zealand have been under quoted in the press.

 

[insert.pause]

I guess in that case you're estimating a total deal of $2.1 to $2.2b - that's what Gould was indicating.

What your saying about beating expectations is typically true and it could happen but remember every dollar the Australian TV & streaming rights goes over $1.85b can be spun by others into a story of Foxtel's failure. This is also about loss of face after their grandstanding and maintaining the narrative.

I think Newscorp preempted it with this Friday 6pm game, allows them to save face by claiming the deal had changed.

 

[docbrown]

I think Newscorp preempted it with this Friday 6pm game, allows them to save face by claiming the deal had changed.

I agree that was a part of it but it was also used to prevent Foxtel from getting whitewashed in in a deal that went against their overall interests i.e. "we won't negotiate unless we get this 6pm game that we really really really wanted all along but just never mentioned until recently".

If the final deal comes out massively above the original $1.75 billion lowball offer total for everything (& remember that still included Monday night football) -- lets say even by $100m - $500 million, it can be said and will be reported that their tactics didn't work to a large degree. People will also bring up the $1.35billion to $1.45billion totals News Corp were reporting when they were in their "we hate the NRL" sook phase. I still say you're going to see some quiet exits behind the scenes at Foxtel.

At the end of the day though it's kind of moot because the main thing the press and people will compare is the dollar value between NRL & AFL - even trying to say to people "it's worth more per year" is difficult.

I think the 6pm game will be a hard sell to NRL fans and all the parties know it.

 

[Captain Apollo]

I think the 6pm game will be a hard sell to NRL fans and all the parties know it.

Hard sell? It will be impossible. We know for a fact that Suncorp Stadium cannot legally host NRL games at that times, so that blow any home games for the Broncos in that time slot. Places like Townsville it would be stupid as you can all but guarantee that people would not be able to get to the ground in time even if they lived in Townsville, let alone their supporters who travel long distance.

Hence you are limiting which teams games you could televise in this spot, and whoever gets lumbered with it on a regular basis will not like it as they will take a big hit in gate receipts due to fans who will not be able to physically make it to the ground in time.

Even in parts of Sydney it will have a big negative hit on gate receipts. I mean if you work in the Sydney CBD, could you imagine the "fun" of trying to get out to CUA Stadium at Penrith if your team is playing at 6pm?

If they agree to a 6pm game on Fridays then the NRL negotiation team are a bunch of idiots.

 

[BuffaloRules]

The Friday 6pm game is so ludicrous for all parties that I suspect its a red herring...

As has been suggested, it might give News a chance to talk up their "eleventh hour deal" in securing the Sunday night game instead but meant they had to pay more money than they intended.