NRL 2010 - Round 1 Tips

[Jono078]

I have a simulator that I've been wanting to show off for a long time now, and while this isn't showing it off completely, each week I plan to show you the results it predicts for each upcoming round.

In the past it has been about 65% accurate which would rate with the top people in any tipping comp.

So this year I'll do it each week and keep track of how accurate it is. Not so much the score it predicts but the actual winner.

Then if it ends up being successful I'll once again look into getting it onto the web for everyone to check it out and use it for themselves.

How it works is it places each team against each other and factors in each players ratings and form. Then takes into consideration the coaches, a teams overall attacking form and defending form. Then it will simulate the result 100 times and grabs outputs the average score of those 100 results.

Because this is the first round, a lot of of the input is random, so it factors in many situations, as each round concludes it should start being more precise in it's results.

Now onto our tips;

Broncos Vs Cowboys
Eels Vs Dragons
Bulldogs Vs Knights
Panthers Vs Raiders
Sharks Vs Storm
Titans Vs Warriors
Rabbitohs Vs Roosters
Tigers Vs Sea Eagles

Who do you guys have winning?

 

[RockWheel]

What are the player ratings based on? Your own opinion? Or something more objective?

Tippy whippies:
Parramatta
North Queensland
Canterbury
Penrith
Melbourne
Gold Coast
Wests
Roosters

 

[skeepe]

Be interested to know where the player ratings come from. That's always going to be the problem with any sort of predictor, it's all subjective.

Broncos Vs Cowboys
Eels Vs Dragons
Bulldogs Vs Knights
Panthers Vs Raiders
Sharks Vs Storm
Titans Vs Warriors
Rabbitohs Vs Roosters
Tigers Vs Sea Eagles

 

[Jono078]

They are all personal opinion right now.

I tried to do something a little more automatic based off stats and stuff, but it was too messed up.

I'm quite happy with the ratings though. I know if I showed people they wouldn't be totally happy, no one ever is to be honest. But the way I have them it works for this sim.

I rate rookies very low until they start proving they can play at a high level on a consistent basis.

I'm happy to share what the team ratings were using the round 1 line ups. And a few specific players if you guys want.

 

[DRAGONZ_RULE]

Now onto our tips;

Broncos Vs Cowboys
Eels Vs Dragons
Bulldogs Vs Knights
Panthers Vs Raiders
Sharks Vs Storm
Titans Vs Warriors
Rabbitohs Vs Roosters
Tigers Vs Sea Eagles

Who do you guys have winning?

The one that doesn't make sense is that your predictor shows Dragons beating Eels, but you have tipped the Eels??

Same with Rabbitohs vs Roosters too, actually.

 

[Jono078]

Maybe I didn't explain well. The results in the pictures are what my sim predicts.

The text ones that I've in bold are my personal opinion, I didn't agree with 2 results from my sim

 

[Gaba]

Dragons
Cowboys
Bulldogs
Panthers
Storm
Titans
Rabbitohs
Tigers

 

[aussies1st]

Broncos Vs Cowboys
Eels Vs Dragons
Bulldogs Vs Knights
Panthers Vs Raiders
Sharks Vs Storm
Titans Vs Warriors
Rabbitohs Vs Roosters
Tigers Vs Sea Eagles

 

[Parra Steve]

Eels
Cowboys
Bulldogs
Panthers
Storm
Titans
Rabbitohs
Tigers

 

[chunk]

Maybe I didn't explain well. The results in the pictures are what my sim predicts.

The text ones that I've in bold are my personal opinion, I didn't agree with 2 results from my sim

Well whats the point then?

 

[petetheileet]

so lay them on us Jono

give us some player raiting for the closer games

Dragons v Eels

Tigers v Manly

Cowboys v Broncos

 

[Eels Dude]

I'd rather go off my own gut instinct. It's more fun that way. Tipping comps are there for a bit of fun and bragging rights more than any financial game. This reminds me of a few years ago when this company from Brisbane rang me up at work offering an 'investment scheme' and to get them off the phone I agreed to let me send them to promo package. It turned out to be an advertisement for a simulator which explained how if you spent 500 dollars on the races per day, and followed their picks, within a few months you would start to see a return on your 'investment'.

 

[Proud2BeCanberran]

Broncos Vs Cowboys
Eels Vs Dragons
Bulldogs Vs Knights
Panthers Vs Raiders
Sharks Vs Storm
Titans Vs Warriors
Rabbitohs Vs Roosters
Tigers Vs Sea Eagles
__________________

 

[simostorm]

I like it..

 

[Ike E Bear]

Well whats the point then?

Well, he did say that the sim runs at about 65 per cent accuracy, which is about five or six correct predictions a round.

Jono078 is obviously predicting that these are the two games (based on averages) that his sim will get wrong.

He might therefore get eight from eight, or might do as badly as four from eight.

;-)

 

[coolumsharkie]

Broncos Vs Cowboys
Eels Vs Dragons
Bulldogs Vs Knights
Panthers Vs Raiders
Sharks Vs Storm
Titans Vs Warriors
Rabbitohs Vs Roosters
Tigers Vs Sea Eagles

 

[Eels Dude]

Well, he did say that the sim runs at about 65 per cent accuracy, which is about five or six correct predictions a round.

Jono078 is obviously predicting that these are the two games (based on averages) that his sim will get wrong.

He might therefore get eight from eight, or might do as badly as four from eight.

;-)

If he's not willing to trust his own simulator... then why would the rest of us???? 65% equals an average score of 5.2 a week... pretty good if proven, but nothing amazing.

 

[Season vet]

Not one tip for the ealges lol....

 

[MacDougall]

Not one tip for the eagles lol....

Does not bode well for the Tigers imo.

It will only fire up the Eagles. Criminally underrated for round 1. It scares me.

 

[Jono078]

Well whats the point then?

What do you mean what's the point?

The sim is just another opinion really. Just because it's there doesn't mean I think the same thing will happen..

I have no clue how it thinks the Roosters will win, I just can't see it happening.

It's for a bit of fun, and if it proves to be quite accurate it can be a fun tool for everyone to use if I ever get it online one day.