Hamilton (under 2hrs from Auckland) and Rotorua(under 3 hours) waaay to far north to be associated with a Wellington or Southern team (6 odd hour drive).
The super rugby boundaries are a pretty good guide of where the cities would fall, if orcas bid includes a Wellington presence it ropes in Napier, Hastings, Palmerston North,Masterton, Wanganui and New Plymouth and over 1 million more fans and double what a South Island only bid would do alone.
New Plymouth and Napier/Hastings would probably be a bit of a battleground area but everything north of there would be Warriors.
South Island going it alone I don’t think you’re going to see many games outside of CHCH with a couple in Dunedin