Odds of playing NRL

[Homo man69]

Another junior coach told me it was 1 in every 6 thousand. Does anyone know that as a player. What are the most accurate odds of playing NRL?

 

[Perth Red]

Another junior coach told me it was 1 in every 6 thousand. Does anyone know that as a player. What are the most accurate odds of playing NRL?

Very hard to say. If you said every male registered player had a chance of making it to the nrl if they were good enough it would be approx 139,000 Australian registered male players to around 400 NRL places or 1:347

Or you could say how many kids play the game at age 18 who could go on to debut in the NRL. Dont have those stats so couldnt say.

How many new players debut in the NRL each year?

 

[kdalymc]

1:2
You either will or you won’t

 

[Uncle Kraka]

1:2
You either will or you won’t

Yep 50% chance

 

[The Vaulting Violinist]

50% chance you will
60% you won’t
5% chance you’ll be gay

 

[Captain Apollo]

I was at a talk given by Phil Gould when he was employed at the Roosters in 2002. He said when speaking to players in the junior rep squads, he told them that by that level they had a 1 in 3 chance of making to to first grade level.

 

[KeepingTheFaith]

1:2
You either will or you won’t

Yup, that's how statistics work.

 

[Exsilium]

There are many that shouldn’t be NRL players on account of their prior indiscretions or sheer lack of talent.

I blame Todd Greenberg.

 

[firechild]

1:2
You either will or you won’t

Not sure you're aware of how ratios work but I like your logic. B- for the attempt.

 

[Exsilium]

Odds should be increased if Toddy sticks to his guns.

We’d be losing players by the dozen if he had any substance.

 

[kdalymc]

Not sure you're aware of how ratios work but I like your logic. B- for the attempt.

 

[AJB1102]

I was at a talk given by Phil Gould when he was employed at the Roosters in 2002. He said when speaking to players in the junior rep squads, he told them that by that level they had a 1 in 3 chance of making to to first grade level.

So it's not 1 in 3 then because we know Gus is full of shit.

 

[Murishido]

I was at a talk given by Phil Gould when he was employed at the Roosters in 2002. He said when speaking to players in the junior rep squads, he told them that by that level they had a 1 in 3 chance of making to to first grade level.

Phil Gould, master coach, Pulitzer prize worthy journalist, rugby league philanthropist and future Nobel prize winner for mathematics

 

[Murishido]

Very hard to say. If you said every male registered player had a chance of making it to the nrl if they were good enough it would be approx 139,000 Australian registered male players to around 400 NRL places or 1:347

Or you could say how many kids play the game at age 18 who could go on to debut in the NRL. Dont have those stats so couldnt say.

How many new players debut in the NRL each year?

You'd have to look the same age based group and then find out the stats for who debuted at 18, b at 19 etc and then look at your single age group and from there you get a very rough percentage chance (which is still incredibly misleading)

Also there's playing in the nrl and having a career, offshore sports with better stats on this see players averaging around 3 years in the top flight and that's skewed by players with 10 years plus.

 

[kbw]

So it's not 1 in 3 then because we know Gus is full of shit.

thats quite a valid reason
Lets look at how it was when the 20s were national as a start less than half SG Ball players go onto play u20s (thats 1 out of 2 and thats too good) and its some where around 1 in 10 for u20s going onto NRL.

So thats at best 1 in 20 at the SG Ball level. There is probably a 1 in 50 chance of playing SG Ball so thats a 1 in 100

 

[ATOWN2]

Very hard to say. If you said every male registered player had a chance of making it to the nrl if they were good enough it would be approx 139,000 Australian registered male players to around 400 NRL places or 1:347

Or you could say how many kids play the game at age 18 who could go on to debut in the NRL. Dont have those stats so couldnt say.

How many new players debut in the NRL each year?

If it's 1:347 80% of them are just ordinary players making up the numbers. So the chance is more like 1:68. If you have speed, power or some other 'x factor' the odds get reduced significantly. By the time most people are 18 they know whether they have a realistic chance or not.