Only Melbourne or Manly can win: Brown

[gong_eagle]

Only Melbourne or Manly can win: Brown

September 2, 2007

http://news.leaguehq.com.au/only-melbourne-or-manly-can-win-brown/20070902-wt4.html


The battle for the NRL premiership is down to eight, but if you ask St George Illawarra coach Nathan Brown the title is only a two-horse race.
Brown says if minor premiers Melbourne and second-placed Manly win their opening qualifying finals at home next week, the path to the title will be near impossible for any other side.
"I think it's a race in two," said Brown when asked for his opinion of the finals after his Dragons lost to Manly 28-24.
"If one and two win next week in the first week in the semis I don't think any of the bottom sides are good enough to win four games in a row.
"I'm not saying they'll both play in the grand final, but I think it's going to be a big effort for sides three to eight to be able to win four games in a row in September.
"It's going to take a big effort from anyone outside the top two to win it this year."
Melbourne host injury-decimated reigning premiers Brisbane in a grand final re-match at Olympic Park next Sunday while the Sea Eagles entertain South Sydney at Brookvale Oval on Saturday night in the Rabbitohs' first finals appearance since 1989.
The finals will open with the New Zealand Warriors hosting a resurgent Parramatta on Friday night while the Bulldogs will travel north to play the Cowboys in Townsville on Saturday night.
The Sea Eagles have injury concerns over prop Brent Kite (groin), but otherwise should be full-strength to tackle the Rabbitohs, deflated from an upset defeat to bitter rivals Sydney Roosters.
Injury, according to Brown, is going to be the biggest factor to influence this year's finals series and already several clubs have serious concerns.
Manly's Kite, New Zealand Warriors winger Manu Vatuvei (knee) and Brisbane duo Justin Hodges (cork) and Tonie Carroll (shoulder)
"Injuries are going to play a part," said Brown.
"If (Kite) is not to play he is a big loss for them because defensively he is their best forward around the ruck.
"I'm pretty confident the Broncos would have won the comp if they didn't lose their players.
"I think they were on a roll, (but) they lost Lockyer, Tate and Berrigan."
Brisbane coach Wayne Bennett admitted his side had a massive task overcoming Melbourne on Sunday, the Broncos thumped 68-22 by Parramatta and Hodges and Carroll set to join Dave Taylor (thumb) on the sidelines for the match against the Storm.
"We've got a huge challenge in front of us, we've got to make the best of a bad day and do what we can down there," Bennett said.
Brisbane skipper Petero Civoniceva said the reigning premiers would take confidence from last year's grand final win over the Storm and the fact they gave them a run for their money at Olympic Park just three weeks ago.
"We've just got to put (today) behind us," Civoniceva said.
"We just lost our way (today) and we just couldn't stem the flow of their momentum.
"Our first challenge is just getting over this week. Last time we took them on there we fought hard and we nearly caused an upset there, we've still got it within the team."
The Eels will head to Auckland brimming with confidence after running in 13 tries in humbling the Broncos, coach Michael Hagan claiming he was just happy to get the win and avoid finishing in eighth spot.
"I don't think it's any secret that it's nearly impossible to advance any further from there - I think the carrot for us to be fifth, the incentive, was pretty high," Hagan said.
"We understand that we're going in there against a similar, skilful, big strong football team.
The Bulldogs will be sweating on the findings of the match review committee ahead of their return trip to Townsville after Sonny Bill Williams was put on report for a late and high tackle on Cowboys halfback Johnathan Thurston on Friday night.
© 2007 AAP
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[gong_eagle]

Parramatta, Broncos show little to worry the top two

Phil Gould | September 3, 2007
http://www.leaguehq.com.au/news/phi...1188671796672.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
YESTERDAY'S Eels-Broncos clash at Parramatta Stadium was really a nothing game.
The 68-22 victory for the Eels did nothing to prepare them for their semi-final campaign. For the Broncos, the game virtually ended their 2007 season.
The quality of football was poor. That may sound like a ridiculous statement but I don't think either coach will be too happy with what their team produced.
Ninety points in 80 minutes of football by two teams supposedly preparing for the finals is not my idea of quality.
There were 17 tries scored in this game with the vast majority of them coming as a result of very poor defence rather than great attack.
The thing that kept the crowd entertained was the fact the home side scored 13 of those tries and some of their brilliant young backs got to display their wonderful athletic talents in the process.
Jarryd Hayne, Krisnan Inu, Timana Tahu, Ben Smith and Eric Grothe represent a strong, fast and skilful back line that is the envy of most NRL teams.
It should be remembered, though, that their try-scoring feast in the second half was against a Broncos team badly depleted by injury and uncharacteristically down on spirit and effort.
By the end of the game, Broncos coach Wayne Bennett had to move players such as Greg Eastwood to the wing and Michael Ennis to the centres just to fill the full quota of 13 players on the field.
The Broncos showed little fight when the game was beyond their reach. I've never seen that from them before. They pride themselves on their consistent intensity and effort. To a man I'm sure they will be terribly disappointed with their performance.
Of the two teams, the Eels have the best chance of doing something positive in September. They have managed to qualify in fifth position.
They had lost their past three games coming into yesterday's final round and whilst they'll say a win on the scoreboard will give them a badly needed confidence boost, I suggest they're having themselves on if they believe they're back to their best form. They face the unenviable task of not only backing up four days later for their Friday night semi-final; but they have to travel all the way to Auckland, to do it.
The Broncos are only making up the numbers and will be nothing but cannon fodder for the Melbourne Storm next Sunday. The Broncos have made the top eight with 11 wins and 13 losses, winning one of their past five.
I've been impressed with the courage they've shown over the past couple of months as they have battled a horrific injury toll, however, many of the teams finishing behind them on the table should hang their heads in shame that the cut off for the play-offs was so low and they still couldn't get there.

This leads me to question the quality of this year's finals contenders.
For instance:
■ South Sydney has finished seventh having scored the least points and least number of tries of any other team in the competition.
■ The Roosters finished just one point out of the eight, having not competed for the first 17 rounds of the premiership and at one stage looking like certain wooden spooners.
■ The Cronulla Sharks having just won four of their past 14 matches finished just one win out of the eight.
■ Newcastle finished four points out of the eight, despite winning just one of their last eight as a horrific injury toll prevailed.
■ The Cowboys finished a clear third despite conceding a whopping 618 points during the regular season (only Newcastle and Canberra conceded more points).
■ Wests Tigers missed the top eight on for-and-against despite winning just two of their last eight matches.
■ The Bulldogs, Broncos and South Sydney all got belted in the last round, despite the fact a win for any of those teams would have helped them into a more prominent position within the top eight.
For mine Melbourne and Manly have been so far above the rest of the teams in this competition it will be a travesty of justice if they are not there on grand final day to fight it out for the title.
Surely even the football gods must realise that's only fair.

 

[Meanie]

Not throwing the Warriors in there is....interesting. Even the Dogs are still always a shot as are an inform Cowboys. It's a different ballgame from this point on, and both Melbourne and Manly have stumbled in recent years come finals time.

 

[Dutchy]

Face girl is correct with Manly. But replace Storm with Warriors.

 

[t-ba]

Not throwing the Warriors in there is....interesting. Even the Dogs are still always a shot as are an inform Cowboys. It's a different ballgame from this point on, and both Melbourne and Manly have stumbled in recent years come finals time.

Manly hasn't stumbled...We came 8th in 2005, 5th in 2006 and no one expected anything of us in both years. When we tank it this year, it's a definite stumble. Which is precisely what will happen if we go to the land of nod at half time again.

 

[Mixmasterreece]

hhmmmm... I think the Warriors are in a bit of strife:

* Mannering - doubtful for this week
* Vatuvai - No chance of playing this week
* Wiki - Under an injury cloud
* Mckinnon - limping badly still
* Ropati - Out for the season

Meaning that we may see a radically changed Warriors backline this week.

 

[shiznit]

i think its abit early to put the warriors in there. too inconsistant... they could hammer the eels this week and get beaten by the broncos or souths the next week. there a hell of alot more consistant at the moment then they were but i wouldnt go and put them up with manly and melbourne just yet.

 

[Dutchy]

Too inconsistant?

They have been the most consistent over the past 2 months.

Except Knights, they were consistently sh*thouse.

 

[Danish]

Only Manly or the Storm can win??


They said that about Saints and Parra in 2005...

 

[Cheesie-the-Pirate]

What he actually said was that assuming that Manly and Melbourne win in the first week he think one of them will win the grand final based upon the necessity in that case for the other teams to win four games in a row. Indeed, he says that one of them may well miss out on the grand final.

From this it is reasonable to infer that he thinks that either (a) they'll both make the grand final or (b) only one will make the grand final but will have a significant advantage over the other grand finalist because of the week's rest and of course they're better form throughout the season.

 

[Misty Bee]

Very true, Danish, very true.

TBH, I thave thought for many months that this is Manly's year, and I'll stick by that at this stage. In the MP, Melbourne were clearly the best side, and played damn good footy in last years GF. However, the "lose one before you win one" theory is well and truly gone.

I'd like to thinkParra are in there, but defensively I'm not convinced. The Warriors deserve a mention, the Cowpats half a mention. I don't think anyone will beat Many in this years GF.

 

[Danish]

Not all teams besides Manly and the Storm need to win 4 in a row to win the grand final...


There will be 2 teams that lose in week one. The Cowboys made the GF after losing in week 1. It can easily happen again.

 

[Cheesie-the-Pirate]

Not all teams besides Manly and the Storm need to win 4 in a row to win the grand final...


There will be 2 teams that lose in week one. The Cowboys made the GF after losing in week 1. It can easily happen again.

Actually that's a good point. Oops. Still I think the broader point stands.

 

[_Johnsy]

Considering that brownie (as much as I love the guy) thought gaz could be a 5/8, I dont put too much behind his opinions on other footy sides. However, as 2005 showed when it is finals anything can and more than likely will happen.

 

[Lowdown]

Jeezuz..I thought Phil Gould wrote the Storm off three rounds ago.

 

[shiznit]

Too inconsistant?

They have been the most consistent over the past 2 months.

Except Knights, they were consistently sh*thouse.

theres still question marks over games they should win. the fact they got knocked over by the raiders a couple of weeks ago means the warriors are still prone to falling over to the weaker sides. they also nearly lost to penrith too.... thats why i say melbourne and manly are still above them at the moment.

 

[skeepe]

The Storm, Warriors and Eels are the only sides capable of winning the premiership. God I hope it's the Warriors.

Edit: Forgot that Parra had one Brett Finch playing for them. Storm and Warriors are the only sides capable of winning the premiership.

 

[hindmarsh4pm]

and why would anyone listen to nathan brown? look how far he got his team this year.

 

[B-Tron 3000]

Al this does is show why Nathan Brown has never won a comp. He doesn't even understand how the Final system works. If Manly and Melbourne win in week 1 then teams 3-6 don't need to win 4 in a row, they need to win 3.

And, if Manly and Melbourne win in week 1, teams 3-6 will play against each other in week2, meaning that 2 of them could get to the prelims without having to actually play at their peak. From there it's just 1 game and they're in the GF.

Brown should know about this - it happened in 05. The Cowboys were decidedly average until the Prelim v Parra, and the Tigers were carved up in the first half of the semi v Brisbane, beat them and then played their best game to swamp the Saints.

Very short memory our Browny.