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OT: Current Affairs and Politics

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
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77,943
The only gotcha moment would've been if any of them were experts. I felt safe setting you up for it.
throwing_fish_net_fail.gif
 

strider

Post Whore
Messages
79,026
Do people honestly think no one should ever use plastic? ... all those merkins interviewed seemed to think so

Ive tried hard to use less, but none?
 

hineyrulz

Post Whore
Messages
154,417
My message is that we'll be watching you.

This is all wrong. I shouldn't be up here. I should be back at Chardon's on the other side of the border. Yet you all come to us fans for hope. How dare you!

You have stolen my dreams and my middle age with your empty words and dodgy recruitment. And yet I'm one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire supporter bases are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is patience and 5 year plans. How dare you!
You bastard.
 
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11,677
See the problem I have here with this kind of argument, and to be honest I've seen it far to many times, is that you are very willing to use the data presented to attempt to make a point, yet in the same breath dismiss the methodology used to collect and interpret the data that you don't like. Without conceding the very real possibility that the flaws you assign to the latest interpretations are actually present in the former interpretations.

It goes to my point above with Pou, you've assigned motive a superior position to reason in your investigation, and it has led to confirmation bias. This is displayed in your unwillingness to accept the possibility that the reasoning presented for changing the modelling is as stated.

I have little doubt that the adjustments will change again, as further developments in the modelling are made, and more data is fed to the models. I'd be disappointed if there wasn't, because that would be indicative of a stagnation of knowledge, or a failure of science to continue to test previous assumptions.

Wouldn't you model the future, though? That, at least I can understand (and I won't mention how every model always gets it wrong - from ice caps to temperature to...).

But you don't model the past. We have direct (or proxy) measurements for that, already. Why are we changing that data, and always in a way that hides stuff from the past that counters the climate change narrative?

Like, for example, arctic sea ice:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

Why start around 1980, when there is good satellite data from 1970?
 

Bandwagon

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Staff member
Messages
45,464
Wouldn't you model the future, though? That, at least I can understand (and I won't mention how every model always gets it wrong - from ice caps to temperature to...).

But you don't model the past. We have direct (or proxy) measurements for that, already. Why are we changing that data, and always in a way that hides stuff from the past that counters the climate change narrative?

Like, for example, arctic sea ice:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

Why start around 1980, when there is good satellite data from 1970?

Why model the past? because ideally you want data that is comparable with the data you collect now, except in so many instances it doesn't actually exist. A lot changes over time, so those changes need to be taken into account if you are going to attempt direct comparisons.

If you are then gonna attempt to model the future, you need assumptions, where do you get these if not from the past? So obviously what you want is to have directly comparable data in order to ascertain some kind of handle on cause and effect, and that has to come from observation.

Given we were discussing changes to GISTemp, here's a more detailed list of what changes have effected the outcomes of that modelling.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/history/

As for your trope on every model always gets it wrong, I'd suggest that's all it is. Modelling is generally done on a range with a degree of confidence assigned, because it's an attempt at recreating the unknown. Hence there's always qualification of the scenarios used, These are rarely reported in the media, oftentimes it's just presented as absolute certainty of worst the case scenario, without qualification. This is then repeated in the kind of criticisms that are so common in the blogosphere.

Or perhaps it's just as often the other way around, it's often hard to know from where misinformation originates.

I pretty much dismiss any argument that attempts to convey absolute confidence in a single modelled scenario where it is clear there are variables that would have been allowed for in the source material, whether that be from an alarmist media, or the pseudo science of populist denial-ism.

We could take your GIStemp post from earlier in the thread as an example, you focus solely on the fact that a graph has changed, and present that as evidence of some kind of conspiracy driven attempt at some kind of cover up?

Yet it's made plain there is uncertainty, as we see here.

upload_2020-1-29_6-53-24.png
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/#

Or this.........

fig11b_1.2.1.png


https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/uncertainty/
 

Gronk

Moderator
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77,943
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/01/28/broadband-speeds-australia-oecd/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning News - 20200129


LIFE TECH
11:51pm, Jan 28, 2020 Updated: 1h ago
‘Embarrassingly slow’: Australia’s broadband internet ranked fourth slowest in OECD

Australia has fallen to 68th in global internet speed rankings, making it the fourth slowest country for broadband in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The nation has been falling in the Speedtest Global Index rankings for the past year despite the continuing rollout of the $51 billion National Broadband Network (NBN), which is due to be completed within six months.

Australia slipped three places to 68 out of 177 countries in December 2019.
 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
77,943
^^^ quotes from PM Abbott at the time he rolled back the fibre to the premises strategy.

“Do we really want to invest $50 billion of hard earned taxpayers money in what is essentially a video entertainment system?”
- Press conference, 20 December, 2010

“[We] are absolutely confident that 25 megs is going to be enough, more than enough, for the average household.”
- Joint press conference, 9 April, 2013

“I’ve got to say to the government in all candour that it would be so much easier to do this if they weren’t wasting money on the greatest white elephant this country has ever seen, the National Broadband Network.”
- 9 January, 2012

“Of course I appreciate the importance of these things. But let's not assume that we should put all our eggs in the high fibre basket either.

“I mean all of the people who are making daily use of telecommunications services, increasingly they're using wireless technology.

“All those people who are sending messages from their iPhones and BlackBerries, all those people sitting in airport lounges using their computers, I mean they do not rely on fixed line services.”
- On Insiders, 15 August, 2010

10 August, 2010

“The National Broadband Network is a luxury that Australia cannot now afford. The one thing you don’t do is redo your bathroom when your roof has just been blown off.”
- Calling for the NBN to be scrapped to help with flood recovery efforts in Queensland, 18 January, 2011

“The smart way to improve broadband is not to junk the existing network but to make the most of it. It’s to let a competitive market deliver the speeds that people need at an affordable price with government improving infrastructure in the areas where market competition won’t deliver it.”
- Reply speech to the 2011-2012 federal budget, 12 May, 2011
 

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