What's new
The Front Row Forums

Register a free account today to become a member of the world's largest Rugby League discussion forum! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

OT: Current Affairs and Politics

Eelogical

Referee
Messages
22,546
doesn't affect me in any way
That's a bonus. I'm no investment player by any means but something tells me that the U.S. election results could have a major effect on our finances going forward. In my case, it's only super related and when to cash in.
 

the phantom menace

First Grade
Messages
8,836
"The ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green says the average swing against governments in byelections since federation is a little under 4 per cent. When Green looks at results since 1983, he calculates the average swing is 3.5 per cent.

The outcome on Saturday was, in a word, average. And Dutton needs to be better than average.

Labor held ground on its primary vote. The Liberals made a modest gain. And there was no proof that Dutton has the strategy in the suburbs to clinch the next election."

 

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
74,062
Additionally, PHON and PU stood in the 2019 Fed election, however did not field candidates this time around. Look as those % margins and you will see a correlation with the “swing” to the liberals.



IMG_1527.png

LINK

I think this also needs to be reinforced. Dunkley is traditionally a liberal seat. So the BS being spun by the usual suspects, I hope, is called out.

LINK

IMG_1526.jpeg
 

the phantom menace

First Grade
Messages
8,836
Yep, dog whistle Dutton is shooting just as many blanks as Scomo was leading up to the last election. They were talking up their chances before this bi-election, but it's back to the drawing board for the LNP.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
51,913
Dutton doesn’t have the capacity to do what Trump or Pollierve can do.

He has the personality of a potato.

Equally, Albo isn’t a complete disaster like Biden or Trudeau.
 

Chipmunk

Coach
Messages
16,310
The issue for Labor at the next election is that they only hold Government by 2 seats.

In the entire history of federation of Australia, the least amount of seats a first term government has lost at the next election is 5 seats, and the majority of the time this happened was when there was half of the amount of seats in the parliament (75 compared to 151 now).

We moved from 75 to a range of 120-125 from just after WWII (1949) to just after Hawke was elected 1983. Since we moved from 125 to around 150 seats (range of 148-151) at the Federal level at the 1984 election, every first term government has lost a minimum of 11 seats at the next election, although we probably have to make some adjustments for 1984.

That 1984 election there was 23 new seats. with the Coalition winning 16 and the Labor 7, so still a significant loss of seats for a first term Government based on percentages.
 
Last edited:

Gronk

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
74,062
The issue for Labor at the next election is that they only hold Government by 2 seats.

In the entire history of federation of Australia, the least amount of seats a first term government has lost at the next election is 5 seats, and the majority of the time this happened was when there was half of the amount of seats in the parliament (75 compared to 151 now).

We moved from 75 to a range of 120-125 from just after WWII (1949) to just after Hawke was elected 1983. Since we moved from 125 to around 150 seats (range of 148-151) at the Federal level at the 1984 election, every first term government has lost a minimum of 11 seats at the next election, although we probably have to make some adjustments for 1984.

That 1984 election there was 23 new seats. with the Coalition winning 16 and the Labor 7, so still a significant loss of seats for a first term Government based on percentages.
All true.

As they tred carefully towards the Federal Election in 12 months time, the Cook By-Election is next up after ScoMo’s exit.

Labor won’t be contesting. Not unusual, as both sides do it to avoid landslide losses.

 

the phantom menace

First Grade
Messages
8,836
Could equally be a mirror image, with the conservative taking off to the right, and the centrist ending up closer to the left side.

* But just noticed who posted it on X... of course.
 
Last edited:

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
59,207
TRUMP INTO $1.83
Talked to my accountant. Hot tip.Convert money to US dollars. If he gets in their economy is going to fire.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
51,913
I don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme anymore? Do you agree @Gronk ? How about the resident f**kwit who would argue about f**king anything. At least @Gary Gutful was a man about it.
Yeah. Most of our exchanges were just healthy banter. I like stirring because I know you have a good sense of humour.

I’m the first to admit that you know more about bitcoin than I ever will. When you were proven right on stuff I was happy to concede.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
51,913
Could equally be a mirror image, with the conservative taking off to the right, and the centrist ending up closer to the left side.

* But just noticed who posted it on X... of course.
I’d say neither side has moved too far left or right. We just have a situation where left v right has become more of a focus. Which is dumb when you think about it.
 

Gary Gutful

Post Whore
Messages
51,913
Bitcoin Meme GIF by Crypto GIFs & Memes ::: Crypto Marketing
 

Avenger

Immortal
Messages
32,244
Yeah. Most of our exchanges were just healthy banter. I like stirring because I know you have a good sense of humour.

I’m the first to admit that you know more about bitcoin than I ever will. When you were proven right on stuff I was happy to concede.
Problem is that besides the shit list and bitcoin, it's the only thing I've been right about.
 

Latest posts

Top