OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Twizzle]

Regardless of all the rhetoric, do you have a trigger finger on your investments leading up to and including the U.S. presidential election?

doesn't affect me in any way

 

[Eelogical]

doesn't affect me in any way

That's a bonus. I'm no investment player by any means but something tells me that the U.S. election results could have a major effect on our finances going forward. In my case, it's only super related and when to cash in.

 

[Gronk]

Always a drama over there.

 

[the phantom menace]

Didn't he (or his party) give almost half of them their jobs?

 

[the phantom menace]

"The ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green says the average swing against governments in byelections since federation is a little under 4 per cent. When Green looks at results since 1983, he calculates the average swing is 3.5 per cent.

The outcome on Saturday was, in a word, average. And Dutton needs to be better than average.

Labor held ground on its primary vote. The Liberals made a modest gain. And there was no proof that Dutton has the strategy in the suburbs to clinch the next election."

The one word that sums up the Dunkley byelection result

The swing against the government showed Peter Dutton tapped into a real frustration with Labor over the cost of living, but nothing like the force that some of his allies predicted.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Gronk]

 

[Gronk]

Additionally, PHON and PU stood in the 2019 Fed election, however did not field candidates this time around. Look as those % margins and you will see a correlation with the “swing” to the liberals.





LINK

I think this also needs to be reinforced. Dunkley is traditionally a liberal seat. So the BS being spun by the usual suspects, I hope, is called out.

LINK

 

[the phantom menace]

Yep, dog whistle Dutton is shooting just as many blanks as Scomo was leading up to the last election. They were talking up their chances before this bi-election, but it's back to the drawing board for the LNP.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Dutton doesn’t have the capacity to do what Trump or Pollierve can do.

He has the personality of a potato.

Equally, Albo isn’t a complete disaster like Biden or Trudeau.

 

[Chipmunk]

The issue for Labor at the next election is that they only hold Government by 2 seats.

In the entire history of federation of Australia, the least amount of seats a first term government has lost at the next election is 5 seats, and the majority of the time this happened was when there was half of the amount of seats in the parliament (75 compared to 151 now).

We moved from 75 to a range of 120-125 from just after WWII (1949) to just after Hawke was elected 1983. Since we moved from 125 to around 150 seats (range of 148-151) at the Federal level at the 1984 election, every first term government has lost a minimum of 11 seats at the next election, although we probably have to make some adjustments for 1984.

That 1984 election there was 23 new seats. with the Coalition winning 16 and the Labor 7, so still a significant loss of seats for a first term Government based on percentages.

 

[Gronk]

The issue for Labor at the next election is that they only hold Government by 2 seats.

In the entire history of federation of Australia, the least amount of seats a first term government has lost at the next election is 5 seats, and the majority of the time this happened was when there was half of the amount of seats in the parliament (75 compared to 151 now).

We moved from 75 to a range of 120-125 from just after WWII (1949) to just after Hawke was elected 1983. Since we moved from 125 to around 150 seats (range of 148-151) at the Federal level at the 1984 election, every first term government has lost a minimum of 11 seats at the next election, although we probably have to make some adjustments for 1984.

That 1984 election there was 23 new seats. with the Coalition winning 16 and the Labor 7, so still a significant loss of seats for a first term Government based on percentages.

All true.

As they tred carefully towards the Federal Election in 12 months time, the Cook By-Election is next up after ScoMo’s exit.

Labor won’t be contesting. Not unusual, as both sides do it to avoid landslide losses.

View from The Hill: Labor ‘highly unlikely’ to contest the Cook byelection, as Morrison bows out with ‘plenty of scars’

Today Scott Morrison gave his valedictory speech saying “thank you” to many people in and out of politics, and was very emotional at times.

theconversation.com

 

[Gronk]

Interesting

 

[the phantom menace]

Could equally be a mirror image, with the conservative taking off to the right, and the centrist ending up closer to the left side.

* But just noticed who posted it on X... of course.

 

[hindy111]

TRUMP INTO $1.83
Talked to my accountant. Hot tip.Convert money to US dollars. If he gets in their economy is going to fire.

 

[hindy111]

He also said Bitcoin will hit 1 million dollars. @Avenger

 

[Avenger]

He also said Bitcoin will hit 1 million dollars. @Avenger

I don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme anymore? Do you agree @Gronk ? How about the resident f**kwit who would argue about f**king anything. At least @Gary Gutful was a man about it.

 

[Gary Gutful]

I don’t think it’s a Ponzi scheme anymore? Do you agree @Gronk ? How about the resident f**kwit who would argue about f**king anything. At least @Gary Gutful was a man about it.

Yeah. Most of our exchanges were just healthy banter. I like stirring because I know you have a good sense of humour.

I’m the first to admit that you know more about bitcoin than I ever will. When you were proven right on stuff I was happy to concede.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Could equally be a mirror image, with the conservative taking off to the right, and the centrist ending up closer to the left side.

* But just noticed who posted it on X... of course.

I’d say neither side has moved too far left or right. We just have a situation where left v right has become more of a focus. Which is dumb when you think about it.

 

[Gary Gutful]

 

[Avenger]

Yeah. Most of our exchanges were just healthy banter. I like stirring because I know you have a good sense of humour.

I’m the first to admit that you know more about bitcoin than I ever will. When you were proven right on stuff I was happy to concede.

Problem is that besides the shit list and bitcoin, it's the only thing I've been right about.