Discussion in 'Parramatta Eels' started by Gronk, Dec 10, 2018.
They are talking about this.
Merkins need nickel and the only place to get it is out of the ground. Jobs are good too.
Ummmmm, queensland ..... ffs
So, in other words it isn't a new mine. I'm flabbergasted that some f**kstick on twitter gets important detail arse about.
Clive wants his Nickelback.
Nickel mines are closed and re-opened pretty frequently.....generally in line with the spot price for Nickel.
So, if it wasn't for smokers we would be running a deficit, now. Thanks, smokers.
I'm a smoker but I think it's a filthy habit. But I care about my community and my country and so I keep going so I can contribute to my country's recovery from debt. That's the kind of sacrificial guy that I am.
You can thank me later.
Well, we're already in a per capita recession - the economy is growing but the population is growing faster, so the slice of pie that each person gets is smaller. So, if you feel like we're in a recession then you'd be right in the sense that you're in a recession.
Whether we will enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth, like Gronky posted) is a bit trickier.
Wage growth is low and unemployment is not falling (bouncing between 5.2% and 5.3% for the last few months), so those are not good signs at all. However, the last two quarters of GDP growth have been 0.5% each, which is not great but better than the two before that (0.4% combined), so perhaps the interest rate cuts and tax rebates are having some positive effect...
Still, there's not much hope that GDP growth will push higher than 0.5% - the RBA doesn't have many bullets left and the tax rebates have been spent, now, so they probably won't affect the next two quarters. Even if we hold on 0.5% per quarter that's only 2.0% annualised and that's pretty crap.
So, in summary - wage growth and unemployment don't look good. GDP growth looks middling but may not have the stimulus to hold that level, let alone grow, so that's not a good sign, either.
Yet population growth still sits at 1.6%. Not good.
So, talking purely in economics, if we want to avoid what looks to be negative economic signs, we need to reduce immigration for the next 12-24 months. This will shrink the available labour pool, reduce unemployment and, eventually, stimulate wage growth (once unemployment gets below 4.8%). This will give inflation a kick, which will see the RBA raise the cash rate away from emergency levels, and the inflation will finally provide the trigger to raise immigration again to increase the labour pool and balance things out.
Another poor economic sign - house prices are still down. Don't believe the headlines - CoreLogic now have poor data since REA purchased HomeTrack. The REA is where the real data is, now, and they are showing 3%-ish growth in an averaged Sydney, but it's the averaged part that's important. Vaucluse is up 20%, Rose Bay up 12%, but places like Emu Plains, Campbelltown etc. are still down. Most places are still down but that's being hidden behind the top quartile seeing significant growth in house prices. The reduced cash rate doesn't seem to have done anything to save the housing market, and how much of our wealth is based on that?
Only if you have a decent earning job during it Hindy.
What has that got to do with Gov issuing its own debt free currency?
Something we share in common, I pay more in tax through alcohol and tobacco duties than a good many would pay on their incomes.
That's just to sensible. Racist.
Well most people I know are flat out.
I have quite a lot of work on also. Some weeks I have to chose which jobs to do.
But in general I am only booked 1-2 weeks in advance so it could change very quickly
And it probably would except for the lucky few. But lets not kid ourselves a massive recession/depression is coming, probably towards the end of Trumps 2nd term or when the next wanker gets in and they reverse everything Trump has done, not that what Trump has done is long sustaining at this point anyway.
But the massive down turn is coming probably sooner then later. All the indicator are there, just a matter of when the banks decide to go for it.
The other side of that argument is that it is the increase in population that is stopping a per capita recession from being an actual recession.
Historically immigration has proven to be pretty good for economic growth in this country.
Why do the banks want a recession?
Under different circumstances, maybe. But with unemployment going up? Right at the moment, I would have to disagree.
In general, though, immigration has been pretty good for us Down Under.
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