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Well, not really.
The 2PP vote is below. The labor vote has certainly reacted badly from December. However if an election was held today, it would still be a big win.
You can focus on Albanese if you want, but he doesn’t need to worry about Pauline Hanson waltzing into his office making demands. The mob with the blue ties are the ones who need to hide under their desks, close the blinds and pretend nobody is home.
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Newspoll's quarterly analysis for The Australian shows the Coalition's primary vote at 24 per cent, its lowest since polling began in 1985.
It is understood that other federal coalition MPs are considering defecting to One Nation later this year, following Joyce's departure.
While the Coalition has the most to lose from a surging One Nation, Labor could also face challenge in a handful of regional seats, including Hunter.
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The Poll Bludger broke down the results of the DemosAU Poll as follows
DemosAU: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)
The first federal poll of the year finds the One Nation surge redoubling in the wake of Bondi, putting their primary vote level with the Coalition.The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election. The Greens are on 12%, leaving 13% for “any other candidate”.
A two-party preferred result has Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 uses preferences flows from last year’s election, which means the 74.5-25.5 split of One Nation preferences in favour of the Coalition is doing exceptionally heavy lifting. The pollster further stirs the pot with a highly speculative Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result of 50-50, which applies Coalition preferences 83-17 in favour of One Nation based on the result in Hunter, splits Greens preferences 88-12 by assuming the same split as between Labor and the Coalition, and the rest 50-50.
Anthony Albanese’s performance is rated positively by 29%, neutrally by 30% and negatively by 41%, while the respective numbers for Sussan Ley are 17%, 55% and 28%. Albanese leads 42-29 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1027 – based on the amount of weighting involved, the pollster estimates an effective sample size of 586 and a margin-of-error of 4%. Demographic breakdowns will be provided in a full report to be published later today.
