Our Finals Performances Since '97

[Poupou Escobar]

This is a bit of a repost from a thread in the NRL forum:

Finals Week 1:

'97 - lost first week of finals to eventual Premiers Newcastle
'98 - won in first week of finals against North Sydney
'99 - won in first week of finals against Newcastle
'00 - won in first week of finals against eventual runners-up the Roosters
'01 - won in first week of finals against the Warriors
'02 - lost in first week of finals against Brisbane
'03 - didn't make finals
'04 - didn't make finals
'05 - won in first week of finals against Manly
'06 - lost in first week of finals against eventual runners-up Melbourne

That's 5 from 8 for a winning percentage of 63%

Finals Week 2:

In the past ten years we have played only 3 times (we also had 3 BYES) in the second week of the finals for 2 wins and a loss (that's 67%):

'97 - lost to Norths
'98 - won against eventual Premiers Brisbane
'99 - BYE
'00 - won against Penrith
'01 - BYE
'02 - didn't make second week
'03 - didn't make finals
'04 - didn't make finals
'05 - BYE
'06 - didn't make second week

As you can see, we haven't played in the second week of the finals for nearly 7 years, but when we do we have a great record.

Finals Week 3:

'97 - didn't make preliminary final
'98 - lost to eventual runners-up Canterbury
'99 - lost to eventual Premiers Melbourne
'00 - lost to eventual Premiers Brisbane
'01 - won against Brisbane
'02 - didn't make preliminary final
'03 - didn't make finals
'04 - didn't make finals
'05 - lost to eventual runners-up North Queensland
'06 - didn't make preliminary final

That's five appearances for only one win. That's a woeful 20%

Including our 0 from 1 Grand Final record (0% lol) we have a combined finals record of 8 from 17 (47%).

That's slightly below the league average of 50% (duh) but a win in week 1 this year will bring us back up to 50%.

Interestingly, before our loss to Melbourne last year our record was also 50% (8 from 16).

Either way, the preliminary final is a serious bogey game for us. However, Michael Hagan's finals record (4 from 8, being 50% though he's lost 4 of his past 5) sees him winning the only preliminary final he's ever coached in (in 2001). He's also won the only Grand Final he's ever coached in (in the same year, funnily enough).

For a breakdown of Hagan's record he's won 2 from 4 in week 1 of the finals and lost both the week 2 games he's coached in. As stated above, he is 1 from 1 in both preliminary finals and grand finals.

What does all this mean? Not much probably. But stats heads should find it interesting.

 

[Belly in Brisvegas]

The formatting looks nice and neat but it means nothing.

 

[jono]

78% of all staistics are made up

 

[PJ Marshal]

i thought that was 99%

 

[Tizzun]

Luck, few injuries and a touch of skill win premierships... 2 of those points are out of our hands, but we have the skill. Personally I think we are playing well but need to improve our defence close to our line to have a chance.

The stats are interesting though. Sadly memories of finals loses come flooding back

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Further to this I have listed the final positions on the ladder of the teams involved in our finals matches and come up with something completely unremarkable:

In our finals matches since 1997 we have played a team finishing below us on the ladder 10 times, for 5 wins and 5 losses (50%) and we have played teams finishing above us on 7 occasions, for 3 wins and 4 losses (43%).

On week 1 of the finals that equates to 4 games against teams finishing below us, for 4 wins (100%) and 4 games against teams finishing above us, for 1 win (25%).

Weeks 2 is interesting. Twice we have played a team who finished above us on the ladder and won both games (100%), while we lost the one time we played a team that finished below us (0%).

Then in the preliminary final, we have played a team that finished below us on the ladder on 4 occasions, winning only once (25%). We played a team that finished above us on the ladder just once, and lost on that occasion (0%).

Obviously in our one Grand Final appearance we were favourites. We have not been underdogs in a Grand Final since before 1997.

Of course, none of this should mean anything come the finals - an ordinary coin that lands on heads 10 times in a row is still 50% chance of doing it the next time. But rugby league teams are not ordinary coins.

There's a reason Jack Gibson said "Ding dong the witch is dead" over a quarter of a century ago.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Sadly memories of finals loses come flooding back

I went to loads of finals matches in the mid-to-late 90's, including a lot of games Parramatta didn't play in.

For Parra games I went to both losses in 1997 (Newcastle and Norths), as well as the Newcastle-Manly Grand Final (best game I've ever been to).

In '98 I missed both wins (over Norths and Brisbane) but went to the Bulldogs loss (worst game I've ever been to).

In '99 I went to both the win over the Knights and the loss to the Storm.

In '00 and '01 I was overseas.

I watched the 2002 loss on TV.

I went to both games in '05 (the win over Manly and the loss to the Cowboys).

And last year I was overseas for the loss to Melbourne.

All up, I have been to 7 Eels finals matches since '97. We won 2 and lost 5 (29%)

I watched another 3 on tv (we won 67%) and was overseas for another 7 of them (we won 4 for 57%).:?

Ultimately the statistics say that if we want to win in the finals I should definitely not be at any of the games, and ideally I should be out of the country altogether and watching on tv (I managed to watch one game on tv overseas for 100% winning percentage).:shock:

 

[Tizzun]

Dude you think too much!

 

[El Diablo]

Brian Smith

 

[Twizzle]

what it means is we weren't good enough to win

 

[Stagger eel]

what it means is we weren't good enough to win

simple but true.

 

[sportive cupid]

Twizz always was a man of simple truths

 

[oldmancraigy]

It means we were a mighty fine team from 1998-2001 --> in those 4 years we made a GF and 3 times played in the week before the GF.

Somewhere in there was probably our 'window' to win a GF!

Clearly there has been some 'rebuilding' going on since that time, and let's hope the new era of plenty of September games starts again this year!

 

[eels_fan_01]

How many finals matches had Brisbane lost until they won the grand final last year.

 

[Parra Guru]

all that tells me is that finals make me sad

 

[JessEel]

Qualifying Finals hurt my brain

 

[The Engineers Room]

I just want to watch Parramatta play in a finals match and control the game. Not get a lead and let the other team back in or give up a big lead and have to chase.

 

[jk13]

as long as we avoid the bye, we have a chance. this side totally relies on momentum

 

[Belly in Brisvegas]

as long as we avoid the bye, we have a chance. this side totally relies on momentum

yeah...it is a tough one....80 minutes of footy we can do without but it seems it is 80 minutes of footy we need to keep momentum.

 

[Eelectrica]

A lot of teams have been beaten in the Prelim final having had the bye though.

Preliminary final winners and losers:
2000
Newcastle had bye and lost, Brisbane had bye and won

2001
Newcastle and Parra both won after the bye

2002
Broncos had bye and lost, Warriors had bye and won

2003
Penrith and Rooster both had bye and won

2004
Penrith had bye and lost, Roosters had bye and won

2005
St. George and Parra both had bye and lost

2006
Bulldogs had bye and lost, Melbourne had bye and won.

So since 2000 8 teams have won after the bye, and 6 teams have lost.
Margin only slightly favours the team with the bye.
This year if we face Manly in the prelim after they've had a bye, I'd feel pretty good about our chances TBH.