The sport’s key stakeholders have helped to map out what a 20-team competition could look like, including a change to Origin.
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Conferences, mid-week games and 10-team finals: How a 20-team NRL competition could work
The NRL is on the verge of major change with the introduction of two teams in the next three years. A third team by as early as 2030 will take the competition to 20 teams. What will that look like?
T
he NRL has started sitting down with potential broadcast partners to open discussions about the future of the sport. With a team in Perth entering the competition in 2027 and a team in Papua New Guinea the following year, the NRL is just one team away from reaching its desired 20-team competition. That could come as early as 2030. This masthead has spoken to the key stakeholders in the sport to map out what a 20-team competition could look like, including the introduction of conferences and a change to the State of Origin period.
Conferences
There has been considerable debate in recent years about the NRL transitioning to a conference-based system, similar to those of several major American sports.
In a 20-team competition, there are two viable options. One option is to split the competition into two 10-team conferences.
What the conferences could look like.Credit:SMH
That model, however, raises issues with the number of games played in a regular season. If teams played the other teams in their conference twice, and the other conference once, the competition would be extended from 24 to a 28-game season. That’s never happening.
The model posed by this masthead is based on a four-conference system consisting of five teams in each conference.
That allows teams to play each other once (19 rounds), then a rivalry month leading into the finals series, when teams square off against their conference opponents for the second leg of their home-and-away fixtures.
The current draw sees some teams play opponents twice, with no formula or fairness behind the selections.
The major scheduling talking points of a 20-team competition.Credit:SMH
“Twenty teams is the right number,” ARL Commission chairman Peter V’landys said.
“It’s just a matter of when and how we can get there. We want to ensure the first two teams are successful. The Dolphins were successful. We want to make sure the Perth Bears and PNG are equally successful. That might bring the 20th team forward. The success of the two teams will determine how quickly we can move to a 20-team comp.
“Conferences done correctly, yeah, absolutely, I like it. When I first started as chairman, I had a delegation of high-profile coaches and administrators. They wanted conferences, so I’ve always had it in the back of my head. Tribalism is the main ingredient in our sport.”
With nine Sydney teams, it makes it difficult to place them into two clear conferences. By placing the “Big Six” Sydney teams in terms of fan bases and history (Roosters, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Bulldogs, Tigers and Eels) into two separate groups, you ensure more blockbuster games for broadcasters and fans.
“It’ll be great for the gate,” Roosters chairman Nick Politis recently said.
“Playing the Sydney teams twice is better for us than playing the Titans or Dolphins at home. Revenue will go through the roof. You’ll get better crowds. It’s fair.
“We get back to playing a proper draw, not all over the place like it is now. That’s fairness. Now, the top clubs play each other twice, and the bottom teams play each other twice, and we end up somewhere in the middle and get a close comp. Everyone says we’re geniuses, but we’re not. It’s engineered.”
Eastern conference: Sydney Roosters, South Sydney Rabbitohs, St George Illawarra Dragons, Cronulla Sharks and Manly Sea Eagles.
Western conference: Parramatta Eels, Canterbury Bulldogs, Wests Tigers, Penrith Panthers and Perth Bears.
This masthead placed the Perth Bears into a Sydney conference due to their North Sydney fan base. Placing them in another conference with teams like the Warriors, Cowboys or Papua New Guinea will only add to the extensive travel those teams will undertake. The 20th team has also been given to a second New Zealand team.
“I wouldn’t want another team in New Zealand, I would want another southern Queensland team,” former Channel Nine boss David Gyngell said.
“That would drive broadcast and Pay TV revenue for all parties. Ten games aren’t easy to schedule each week, but achievable. There are exciting times ahead for rugby league.
Northern conference: Brisbane Broncos, Gold Coast Titans, North Queensland Cowboys, Dolphins and Papua New Guinea.
Southern conference: Melbourne Storm, Canberra Raiders, Warriors, Newcastle Knights and a potential second NZ-based team.
“Peter and Andrew have our complete support and confidence as they go into these broadcast negotiations,” South Sydney chief executive Blake Solly said.
“We know they’re concentrating on the most compelling competition they can and getting full value for our broadcast rights. One of the great things about the conference system is the certainty it provides you year in, year out.
“Particularly the opportunity to build strong rivalries inside your conference. Anyone who has an interest in the NFL knows how passionate those rivalries can be in the conference and how much fans look forward to the fact they are taking place home and away every year.”
While the teams in the southern conference would be required to travel further distances than the teams in the Sydney conferences, it is no more travel than they are currently being asked to undertake.
“We would need convincing as an out-of-town club whether a conference system would be good or not,” Raiders chief executive Don Furner said in fear of the disadvantage of the additional travel.
How a 10-game round television schedule may look.Credit:SMH
Length of season
Most would agree that the current NRL season, at 24 games with three byes, is too long. However, broadcasters pay top dollar for a product that provides commercial partners a substantial window of promotion.
The same goes with the clubs, who would be significantly impacted by a draw that would only see teams play each other once (19 rounds).
The Rugby League Players’ Association believes a 19-20 game regular season is an optimal amount to reduce the workload on players and minimise injuries.
“The season schedule has desperately needed serious innovation for years, and we are and have always been up for that discussion,” RLPA chief executive Clint Newton said.
“With a new broadcast deal approaching, we’ve got the best chance in a long time to stop patching problems and start building something progressive and transformative, but sustainable.
“Fewer games per NRL club, a better-aligned Origin period, and a genuine international window. If we get those right, we can deliver the content broadcasters need, grow the game globally, and better protect players’ welfare and careers.”
Clubs are mindful, however, that reducing the season to 19-20 games will impact their corporate revenue, sponsorship deals and the income from tickets and membership.
“I understand the need to protect the players and the increasing demands of the game, but that would be a major change from where we are right now,” Eels chief executive Jim Sarantinos said.
The proposed NRL calendar.Credit:SMH
“Reducing the number of home games for each club from 12 to 9 would have a significant impact on how clubs engage with fans, members and sponsors, and the business model across the whole game would need to change.”
There are currently 204 games in the NRL regular season. Even if the competition is reduced by one round, the NRL will increase the number of regular-season games to 230 (13 per cent increase) with the addition of two extra games per round with the new teams.
“Personally, I’d like to see the season shorter,” Furner said.
“It’s such a long season with rep football and trial matches. If there was a way to satisfy the broadcasters with less NRL games, that would be an ideal outcome. I look at the amount of games in the NFL, and it works for them.”
Comparing the difference between the current season structure and what it would be like under the proposed 20-team, four-conference system.Credit:SMH
