Predicted Ladder come Round 22

[CyberKev]

Predicted Ladder

Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
Geelong 22 17 5 0 2449 1949 68 125.6
West Coast 22 16 6 0 2428 1832 64 132.5
St Kilda 22 15 7 0 2328 1916 60 121.5
Melbourne 22 14 8 0 2354 2067 56 113.8
Adelaide 22 14 8 0 2084 1924 56 108.3
Richmond 22 13 9 0 2167 2174 52 99.6
Port Adel 22 12 9 1 2043 2110 50 96.8
Fremantle 22 12 10 0 2194 2030 48 108.0
------------------------------------------
Collingwood 22 11 11 0 2107 2209 44 95.3
Sydney 22 11 11 0 1944 2082 44 93.3
Kangaroos 22 10 12 0 2020 2231 40 90.5
Bris Lions 22 9 13 0 2115 2139 36 98.8
W Bulldogs 22 8 14 0 2183 2329 32 93.7
Hawthorn 22 5 17 0 1968 2274 20 86.5
Essendon 22 5 17 0 1906 2397 20 79.5
Carlton 22 3 18 1 1881 2508 14 75.0

Its as speculative as it gets, but under this scenario, Carlton would only win one more game for the season and Geelong would only lose one more.

The Saint recovery will begin this week, and gather momentum as Messersd Hamill, Kozitschke & Penny filter back into the side.

Sixth would be a fantastic result for Richmond, and fifth an awesome one for the Crows, all but ensuring Neil Craig 'Coach of the Year' status.

Collingwood will continue to improve, but have made it just a tad too hard for themselves to make the eight.

I dare say that I could stand accused of bias for finding another two wins for Hawthorn, but it is possible.

Under this model, as per last season, three sides would again tie-up the top quality available by having the opening six picks of the draft.

If anyone else wants to have a crack, you can do so at the following site:

http://www.allthestats.com/other/ladpredict.php

 

[meltiger]

I was more kind to Richmond, was honest though - Only the Sad old Blues get priorities for mine. West Coast and Essendon were my interesting ones. Dons get up to 6 wins, West Coast to drop 4 games. They have a couple more Melbourne trips, Sydney and Geelong still to come though, so the travel question could do them in if Melbourne perform as I expect. This ladder would have Richmond playing a Prelim @ Subiaco though :shock: So let's hope I'm wrong lol

1. Melbourne 22 19 3 0 2476 1945 76 127.3
2. West Coast 22 17 5 0 2402 1858 68 129.2
3. Geelong 22 15 7 0 2347 2051 60 114.4
4. Richmond 22 14 8 0 2274 2067 56 110.0
5. Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2165 2151 48 100.6
6. St Kilda 22 11 11 0 2159 2085 44 103.5
7. Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2139 2115 44 101.1
8. Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2020 2231 44 90.5
9. Port Adel 22 10 11 1 1985 2168 42 91.5
10. Adelaide 22 10 12 0 2024 1984 40 102.0
11. W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2277 2235 40 101.8
12. Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2115 2109 40 100.2
13. Hawthorn 22 9 13 0 2103 2139 36 98.3
14. Sydney 22 8 14 0 1892 2134 32 88.6
15. Essendon 22 6 16 0 1929 2374 24 81.2
16. Carlton 22 2 19 1 1864 2525 10 73.8

 

[CyberKev]

I was more kind to Richmond, was honest though - Only the Sad old Blues get priorities for mine. West Coast and Essendon were my interesting ones. Dons get up to 6 wins, West Coast to drop 4 games. They have a couple more Melbourne trips, Sydney and Geelong still to come though, so the travel question could do them in if Melbourne perform as I expect. This ladder would have Richmond playing a Prelim @ Subiaco though :shock: So let's hope I'm wrong lol

1. Melbourne 22 19 3 0 2476 1945 76 127.3
2. West Coast 22 17 5 0 2402 1858 68 129.2
3. Geelong 22 15 7 0 2347 2051 60 114.4
4. Richmond 22 14 8 0 2274 2067 56 110.0
5. Collingwood 22 12 10 0 2165 2151 48 100.6
6. St Kilda 22 11 11 0 2159 2085 44 103.5
7. Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2139 2115 44 101.1
8. Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2020 2231 44 90.5
9. Port Adel 22 10 11 1 1985 2168 42 91.5
10. Adelaide 22 10 12 0 2024 1984 40 102.0
11. W Bulldogs 22 10 12 0 2277 2235 40 101.8
12. Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2115 2109 40 100.2
13. Hawthorn 22 9 13 0 2103 2139 36 98.3
14. Sydney 22 8 14 0 1892 2134 32 88.6
15. Essendon 22 6 16 0 1929 2374 24 81.2
16. Carlton 22 2 19 1 1864 2525 10 73.8

Hmmm...

Can see West Coast dropping a few, but surely Carlton can find at least one win from somewhere, possibly two as they still have to play Hawthorn & Essendon.

I'm not sure which is the more ludicrous a prediction - Melbourne going undefeated during the second half of the year OR Hawthorn winning another six??!! :doubt: I can tell you right now that Hawthorn will be flat out winning six more quarters for the year, much less six games! Similarly, Collingwood is simply not good enough to go 8-3 over the remainder of the season.

Nonetheless, it would be interesting if your predictions were to be realised. In 2002, West Coast nailed 8th spot with the miserly points tally of 46 (the lowest total ever by a side making the finals). Under your ladder, 44 points will be enough to get Brisbane into sixth! :shock:

 

[meltiger]

It's a much more even season though mate.

Just off topic a bit, reading Punt Road End, some of the Army have been doing some investigating...

Umpire #24

Umpire Hendrie is West Australian.

He was part of the West Coast Eagles 2004 Community Camp in Kalgoorlie - http://westcoasteagles.com.au/default.asp?pg=commcamp2004

Here's a pic of him in 2003 umpiring a match in Busselton (little town about 250km south of perth) - http://www.umpiringwa.org/photos/road_14.jpg
- he's the one looking at the ground (or are his eye's closed?) instead of the coin.

A certain Rob Hendrie also happens to be a life-member of Umpiring WA and was an AFL goal-umpire in 99 games from 1987.

... and yep gpb, Kalgoorlie is about 1500km west of Alice Springs ...

Richmond must make an official complaint against this rat and demand that he never officiates a Richmond game against West Coast again.

 

[camsmith]

Meltiger nice one. I hope that joke of an ump never gets another AFL game.

Ok ill just predict the ladder......


DONE - Wins in BOLD

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 West Coast 22 18 4 0 2411 1849 72 130.3
2 Melbourne 22 16 6 0 2378 2043 64 116.3
4 Geelong 22 15 7 0 2381 2017 60 118.0
5 Richmond 22 14 8 0 2218 2123 56 104.4
3 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 2128 1880 52 113.1
8 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2199 2045 48 107.5
12 Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2145 2109 44 101.7
7 Kangaroos 22 11 11 0 2066 2185 44 94.5

11 Port Adel 22 10 11 1 1989 2164 42 91.9
9 Fremantle 22 9 13 0 2075 2149 36 96.5
10 W Bulldogs 22 9 13 0 2191 2321 36 94.3
6 Sydney 22 9 13 0 1900 2126 36 89.3
13 Collingwood 22 8 14 0 2087 2229 32 93.6
15 Hawthorn 22 7 15 0 2033 2209 28 92.0
14 Essendon 22 7 15 0 1996 2307 28 86.5
16 Carlton 22 6 15 1 1974 2415 26 81.7


Ive tried to be as realistic as i can... All the games Richmond SHOULD win.. and probably wont are marked down, i might have been too nice to Brisbane and Calrton... But that latter looks pretty good to me.

 

[meltiger]

I hope that joke of an ump never gets another AFL game.

I strongly beleive we were deliberately cheated out of the game. The three decisions in question (just for starters) were utter pooh & there was far too many of them.

But that latter looks pretty good to me.

Me too ... No priorities under yours ;-)

 

[camsmith]

Oh yeh no priorities... i should of taken that into account in the last 5 - 10 games, teams playing sh*tty young players... o well.

--------

Its hard to tell if that ump cheated us (havnt watched the replay) But at the ground it was beyond just the couple of calls going against us. Something does need to be looked at, and i'ld suggest that ump doesnt do anymore W.C/Freo games. Saying that, most umps are from Melbourne... so they could favour Melbourne teams.


I just hope they review that game closely and the decissions made by that umpire, I'll be looking forward to watching nospam29 with the "Stump the Ump" episode...

 

[incomparable]

West Coast 22 17 5 0 68
Melbourne 22 15 7 0 60
Geelong 22 14 8 0 56
Adelaide 22 13 9 0 52
Richmond 22 13 9 0 52
St Kilda 22 12 10 0 48
Sydney 22 12 10 0 48
Brisbane 22 12 11 0 48

Port Adelaide 22 11 11 1 46
Fremantle 22 11 11 0 44
Collingwood 22 9 13 0 36
Western Bulldogs 22 9 13 0 36
Kangaroos 22 9 13 0 36
Essendon 22 7 15 0 28
Hawthorn 22 6 16 0 24
Carlton 22 4 15 1 18

Way too lazy to worry about percentages.

 

[meltiger]

Way too lazy to worry about percentages.

Way to lazy to attend the footy too :shock:

 

[Eddie.]

1. West Coast
2. Melbourne
3. Geelong
4. Sydney
5. Saints
6. Adelaide
7. Port Adelaide
8. Brisbane

9. Kangaroos
10. Tigers
11. Collingwood
12. Fremantle
13. Bulldogs
14. Essondon
15. Hawks
16. Carlton

 

[camsmith]

Sydney 4th???


You wouldnt happen to be a sydney supporter would you..

 

[Eddie.]

Sydney 4th???


You wouldnt happen to be a sydney supporter would you..

No

My other predictions were lousy though, except Richmond..

 

[camsmith]

Im glad you could predict that Sydney would actually start playing a decent brand of football.. I had the impression that thats how they wanted to play footy all year long.