Premiership bet.. What should I do?

[diggo]

Earlier in the week I placed a spur of the moment bet on my team (Tigers) to win the comp at $13. I put $770 on them for a potential payout of just over $10,000. Not really sure why I did it, was really just evening out my centrebet account at the end of the season.

Well now they are into $4.50, but I don't believe they will get past the Dragons this week so I thought I should hedge my bet. What's the best way to go about it, to ensure maximum payout with minimum risk? Is it even worth getting on the Dragons this week, considering that they will be pretty short (I'm assuming they will be around $1.45-$1.50). Or should I grow some cojonas and just let the bet ride solo?

 

[Parra]

All depends how risk-averse you are, how much the $770 means to you and the market.

You could cover the $770 with a bet on Saints this week, and if the Tigers win you could again cover your outlay with a bet on the other side in the GF - essentially freerolling your bet. This will eat into your profit.

You could also go onto betfair and get the $770 fairly easy by laying the Tigers.


You could make a larger wager, using the $10,000 and lock in a result - but the locked in result will not be as great as if you just cover your outlay.

Bear in mind the Tigers have to win two more matches - so you have two chances to make a decision. You can't really hedge it all on the Saints game, because the Tigers could win this week, leaving you in a bad spot.

 

[Deacon]

As a dragons supporter I hope you've done ur money haha but if it was me I'd try and pick the winner of the Friday night game and hope ur tigers get up

 

[Cletus]

All depends how risk-averse you are, how much the $770 means to you and the market.

You could cover the $770 with a bet on Saints this week, and if the Tigers win you could again cover your outlay with a bet on the other side in the GF - essentially freerolling your bet. This will eat into your profit.

You could also go onto betfair and get the $770 fairly easy by laying the Tigers.


You could make a larger wager, using the $10,000 and lock in a result - but the locked in result will not be as great as if you just cover your outlay.

Bear in mind the Tigers have to win two more matches - so you have two chances to make a decision. You can't really hedge it all on the Saints game, because the Tigers could win this week, leaving you in a bad spot.

I think laying it with betfair would be the best way because he would only pay the vigorish once, but I'm assuming he'd have to have $3000+ in a betfair account to cover it? (I don't use betfair)
I wish I had that problem a bit more often!

 

[diggo]

Thanks for your help fellas!

All depends how risk-averse you are, how much the $770 means to you and the market.

You could cover the $770 with a bet on Saints this week, and if the Tigers win you could again cover your outlay with a bet on the other side in the GF - essentially freerolling your bet. This will eat into your profit.

You could also go onto betfair and get the $770 fairly easy by laying the Tigers.


You could make a larger wager, using the $10,000 and lock in a result - but the locked in result will not be as great as if you just cover your outlay.

Bear in mind the Tigers have to win two more matches - so you have two chances to make a decision. You can't really hedge it all on the Saints game, because the Tigers could win this week, leaving you in a bad spot.

I'm not normally the risk-averse type, but I do know when to be sensible about it. In this case, I just can't see the Dragons being beaten this week. I really do think they are overs at $1.50.

Is there any difference between laying the Tigers and backing the Dragons? It will cost $1,510 and $1,540 respectively to get the $770 back either way.

If I do this and the Tigers happen to get through, I could put $5k on the other grand finalist at (est) $2.00.. this would mean:

$7,300 down in total
$10k payout guaranteed

= $2,700 profit

But if Dragons win this week (most likely result), I break even.

Bah.. doesn't sound as good as I thought it would

 

[Frustrated Fan]

The Dragons form indicates that they don't exactly blow their opposition away early. Also their week off could leave them a bit flat footed. Whereas the Tigers have been starting well. If you emptied your account on the Tigers, you must fancy them being competetive.

Get som money back in to your account with view to betting live. If the Tigers can get some points ealry you will be in a better position to lay off. A quick start and couple of early tries could result in a points start being offered for the Dragons in live betting.

While not a true lay off bet, i would have a bit of a saver on Tigers/Dragons half time/full time double.