PREVIEWS OF THE 2 GF Qualifiers

[gong_eagle]

PREVIEWS OF THE 2 GF Qualifiers

Wednesday, September 19, 2007
http://svc002.wic113cx.server-web.com/News/Features/FeatureArticle/tabid/77/NewsId/7113/Default.aspx

Cowboys V Sea eagles preview

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Can the Cowboys’ juggernaut keep rolling or will the Sea Eagles – far and away the second most consistent side in the NRL in 2007 behind the Storm – advance to a deserving spot in the Grand Final?
The North Queensland outfit has never been more confident, as evidenced by their dazzling, minimum-mistake attack in recent weeks. They enter this preliminary final with seven consecutive wins – the most in their 13 season-existence.
They accounted for the Bulldogs at home in consecutive weeks before destroying the Warriors 49-12 in 30-degree Townsville heat last week.
But their preparation focus for this eliminator has been blurred with Johnathan Thurston’s dangerous tackle charge and possible suspension; without the No.1 playmaker in the game they slip from narrow outsiders to just hopefuls at best – even accounting for the brilliance fullback Matt Bowen brings to the table.
(The Cowboys have won just 27 per cent, or three from 11, games without Thurston over the past two years.)
Manly have been building solidly all year, although back-to-back losses in rounds 23 and 24 to the Rabbitohs and Warriors have many questioning whether they have the right form and attitude at this crucial stage of the season – they followed those efforts with a narrow home win over the Dragons before barrelling the Rabbitohs out of the comp 30-6.
Although at full strength, they have a few injury concerns, with Brent Kite resuming after a three-week break and Steve Menzies quarantined from his team-mates and unable to train during the week due to a virus.
They’ve named an extended bench, with big, mobile strike weapons Jack Afamasaga and Adam Cuthbertson (a starting prop against the Bunnies) in jerseys 20 and 21.
Carl Webb has recovered from his calf injury and resumes his starting role for the Cowboys, with Ben Vaeau reverting back to an extended bench.
Watch out Sea Eagles: The Cowboys know only one way to play – fast and furious.
It’s got them this far and there’s no way they’re going to alter their game plan at this late stage.
That’s a plus for coach Des Hasler; the negative is trying to nullify their brilliant if unpredictable attack.
The impact of Thurston and Bowen is well documented: Thurston leads the league for line breaks and try assists with 31 apiece; Bowen is ninth for line break assists (12) and leads the tryscoring list with 22.
But Hasler would be aware that under-rated hooker Aaron Payne has grown in confidence with each recent Cowboys win and his presence on the field is now every bit as important as the two playmakers’.
Payne is a scheming ruckman who relishes getting his side on the front foot out of dummy-half – he ranks sixth for ruck scoots with 112 – more than those made by any of the remaining rakes in the comp.
Manly need to assert their defensive dominance in numbers – they rank fifth for big hits with 65 (compared to the Cowboys’ 32) – and legally slow down the pace of play.
This will stop Payne getting cheap metres – and cheap penalties.

Watch out Cowboys: Manly has built a solid premiership platform around dominating field position.
Their big pack has ground out the third most metres in the NRL (averaging 1,410 a game) while principal kickers Matt Orford and Michael Monaghan have consistently pinned opposition sides in their halves with an average 621 metres a game – the second most off the boot by any side.
By comparison the Cowboys gain the least ground metres (1,275) and kick metres (500.3).
The key for Manly is to remain unflustered by any Cowboys line breaks – they’re going to come – and trust their game plan.
The statistics say that over 80 minutes they should prove too strong.
They have, after all, conceded an average 15 points a game compared to the Cowboys’ 24.9 and have outscored their opponents by an average 1.4 points a game.
Where it will be won: Errors and kicking accuracy. Forget Thurston and Bowen, confidence is the Cowboys’ best strike weapon at the moment.
Everything they’ve done over the past seven weeks stems from self belief.
They’re still the second worst side in the comp at missing tackles (averaging a woeful 42 a game compared to Manly’s fourth fewest 30) but their passes are sticking and their errors are down.
But that can all turn over the space of a few sets of six. While the Sea Eagles have a good, probing kicking game, expect them to take away Bowen’s “candy” by kicking well away from him and getting their defensive line up quickly in a good kick chase – they’ll also look to roll the ball into touch as often as possible to slow down the pace of the Cowboys’ often frenetic play.
Manly would be mad not to target the Cowboys’ flimsy right-side defence – they’ve conceded 50 tries down that corridor compared to 29 on the left.
As fate would have it Manly prefer to attack to their left and have scored 47 of their 110 tries there compared to 34 on the right.
Look for Brett Stewart, who will use this game as a showdown with Bowen for the vacant Kangaroos fullback position, to come to the fore.
Conclusion: It’s entirely likely Des Hasler is dreading meeting the Cowboys more than either of the two teams they would meet in the Grand Final if they win on Saturday.
With five of six past results going their way the Cowboys are definitely Manly’s bogey side – even Manly’s incredible record of posting first points in each of their past 16 games loses a little gloss when you discover it was the Cowboys who last inflicted that statistic on them.
As we’ve seen repeatedly in finals football in recent years entire campaigns can be shattered by fleeting moments of ill-discipline.
It cost the Bulldogs dearly over the past two weeks; they conceded 20 penalties and were awarded just four.
And the Warriors last week discovered there was no way back from a 9-3 count against them.
In that regard there’s little between them: Manly from 25 games have conceded 132 penalties in defence to the Cowboys’ 145 from 26 games.
Last, it could all hinge on how the Cowboys handle playing out of their Townsville comfort zone.
They won just one game in Sydney in 2007 – a narrow victory over wooden-spooners Penrith in round 22.
And they’ve lost their past two games at the SFS – conceding a massive 104 points.
Match officials: Referee – Paul Simpkins; Sideline Officials – Steve Chiddy & Steve Lyons; Video refs – Bill Harrigan & Phil Cooley.

Televised: Channel Nine – Live 7.45pm (NSW & Qld); Foxsports 3 – Delayed 8am Sunday.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.

Storm v Eels preview

Wednesday, September 19, 2007 - 3:13 PM
Plenty of spice about this second preliminary final even before the players take to the field, with a war of words between the rival CEOs (over ground dimensions!) threatening to spill over onto Telstra Dome.
Given the Storm’s apparent inability to handle “niggling” tactics (remember the Broncos), that augers well for the Eels.
And what about the match-ups? Billy Slater v Jarryd Hayne… Israel Folau v Timana Tahu… Cameron Smith v Mark Riddell… Dallas Johnson v Feleti Mateo… the list goes on.
The Minor Premiers have had a benchmark season; unbeaten at home they’ve dropped just three games and enter this contest on a six-game winning streak.
They annihilated the Broncos 40-0 a fortnight ago; before that they flogged the Titans 50-6 and spanked the Bulldogs 38-6.
Five weeks ago against the Eels they played scratchy footy but still got the verdict 14-10.
The Eels have been awesome and intimidating in their three victories since a worrying three-game losing sequence to the Sharks, Storm and Dragons.
They savaged the Broncos 68-22 in round 25, scraped home 12-10 against the Warriors in New Zealand in the first week of finals before ending the Bulldogs’ season in dazzling style at Telstra Stadium last week.
Storm five-eighth Greg Inglis returns from a one-game, three-week break with a back injury, ensuring Melbourne have all troops on deck.
“Lucky charm” Michael Crocker – yet to lose in a starting Storm side – and Matt Geyer have been named on a six-man interchange.
Eels five-eighth Brett Finch and utility Daniel Wagon are expected to overcome minor injuries and take their places.
Winger Eric Grothe will be primed for a big effort – it’s his 100th first grade game.
Watch out Storm: The Parramatta backline can more than match it with the Storm, with Hayne, Tahu, Grothe and Inu in particular in smouldering form.
Rugby union-bound Tahu is making the most of every week he has left in league – he was devastating against the Dogs with 18 runs for 184 metres, with five tackle breaks, a line break, try assist and try.
Hayne (ranked third for line breaks with 22) carved the Dogs up with 16 runs for 170 metres, with 10 tackle breaks, 3 line breaks and a try.
And grinning goalkicker Inu chimed in with 18 runs for 201 metres with six tackle breaks and a line break.

Watch out Eels: If Parramatta are hoping for some easy possession and a cushy ride, they can forget it.
Remarkably, the Storm make the fewest offloads of any side in the comp, ranking 16th with 216. That’s an average of just 8.6 a game.
But in the lead up to the finals coach Craig Bellamy has his charges prizing the pill even more – in their 38-6 win over the Dogs in round 24 they offloaded just twice!
While the Eels attack has been imposing in recent weeks they’ll be coming up against a brick wall in this one – the Storm concede the least amount of points (11.1), tries (1.8), line breaks (2.9) and metres (1,259) per game.
Where it will be won: Discipline. There’s nothing between these sides in key areas. Both sides average a lowly nine mistakes a game and their completion rates are high (75% to 74% in favour of the Eels).
The Storm rank second for metres made with 1,418, the Eels fourth just 18 metres shy.
The Eels rank third for broken tackles with 1,022; the Storm is fourth with 976.
But the Storm commit far fewer infringements, having been penalised 139 times to the Eels’ 155.
Each side’s game plan will be interesting; it’s unlikely the Storm will play too expansively, which means their errors should remain low.
But the Eels thrive on second-phase play, with the likes of Feleti Mateo (4 offloads last week) setting up myriad opportunities.
If it all comes together they’ll provide punters with a real shout at their $2.80 quote. If not, watch the Storm make them pay.
The History: Played 18; Storm 11, Eels 7. The Storm have won seven of the past eight clashes, with the Eels’ sole victory a 26-14 win at Olympic Park in 2005.
The Storm have been beaten in Melbourne just once in the past two years. Tellingly perhaps, Parramatta whipped the Storm 54-10 in the only match they’ve played at Telstra Dome.

Conclusion: The final stanza will prove crucial; one of the plusses for the Eels in 2007 has been their ability to climb over the top of the majority of their oppositions in the final 20 minutes of their matches.
Their 173 points in that period (6.6 points a game) ranks them third in the NRL. Unfortunately the Storm have been defiant in that regard – they’ve yielded just 0.8 points per game in the final 20 minutes of their past 10 games.
A thrilling feature of this clash will be the battle in the air out wide, with giants Inu and Folau try-scoring freaks under the high ball.
A question mark remains over the benefits of a two-week layoff for the Storm – they were far from impressive 12-8 winners over the Rabbitohs in round 17 coming off their bye.
There are no pretenders in this finals series and this final features two sides playing to their potential.
That makes determining a winner tough. The Storm, though, have been the benchmark for the past two seasons and deserve to advance to the decider. But an Eels win would not surprise…
Match officials: Referee – Tony Archer; Sideline Officials – Russell Turner & Steve Carrall; Video refs – Bill Harrigan & Phil Cooley.
Televised: Channel Nine – Live 4.00pm (NSW & Qld); Foxsports 3 – Delayed 6pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.

 

[effnic]

While the 2007 finals series has hardly set the world on fire, this week's games are sure to at least create some much needed heat. Week 3 of the finals is traditionally the most dramatic, heartbreaking, and ecstatic of the season as the four best sides go head to head for a spot in the decider. The teams have come so far and are so close, but yet in many cases so far away. Over the years we have seen some dramatic Preliminary Finals/Semi Finals or Grand Final Qualifiers (whichever you like to call them).

Last year was a prime example when the Broncos ran down the Bulldogs in unbelievable fashion when all seemed lost for the eventual premiers. In 2004 the Cowboys went within a whisker of upsetting the red hot Roosters. While one can never forget the collapses suffered by the Sharks in 2001 and 2002, and the famous choke by Newcastle in 2000. Perhaps the side that has the richest history in Preliminary Finals over the last decade is Parramatta. In the much-publicised 1998 'Prelim' the Eels led 18-2 with 9 minutes to play, only to be run down in extra time 32-20. A year later the Eels led the Storm (their opponent this week) 16-6 at the break yet were eventually beaten 18-16. In 2000 the Eels made it three straight losses going down to Brisbane in a brave effort before gaining revenge and qualifying for the 2001 decider with a 24-16 win over the Broncos. However just when it appeared their demons had been exorcised Parra came crashing down again in 2005 when they were hammered 29-0 by the Cowboys in the penultimate match.

In fact when considering the Preliminary final record of each side, Parramatta by far have the worst. Since eight team finals began in 1995 the Eels have won just 1 from 5 matches at this stage of the premiership:

Preliminary Finals (1995-2006):
Melbourne: Played 2, Won 2, 100%
Parramatta: Played 5, Won 1, Lost 4, 20%
Manly: Played 3, Won 3, 100%
North Queensland: Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, 50%

In terms of the sides finishing positions we can also pick up some interesting trends. Since 1999 in the McIntyre system, team number 1 has only lost in the preliminary final twice from 8 attempts. Some of the other sides do not have such a record to call on:

Preliminary Finals (By Team Ranking):
Team 1: Played 8, Won 6, Lost 2, 75%
Team 2: Played 6, Won 3, Lost 3, 50%
Team 3: Played 6, Won 3, Lost 3, 50%
Team 5: Played 3, Won 1, Lost 2, 33%

In fact teams 2 and teams 3 both have extremely poor records in terms of making the Grand Final.

Interesting trends have also emerged in terms of the 1st Preliminary Final and the 2nd Preliminary Final. In 8 games the 2nd highest-ranking winner from the first week has only twice won in the first preliminary final (Knights 2001, Roosters 2003). Hence 6 times the winner from week 2 has continued their surge to go through to the Grand Final. This means that in the '1st Prelim' the stats favour the Cowboys to go through ahead of Manly. In the 2nd Preliminary Final though the Storm are heavily favoured in the statistics. Only twice has the team with the week off in this game ever lost.

Preliminary Final 1 (Sea Eagles v Cowboys):
Week Off Team Won 2, Winner Week 2 Won 6

Preliminary Final 2 (Storm v Eels)
Week Off Team Won 6, Winner Week 2 Won 2

Traditionally preliminary finals are tight affairs. So if you're planning on having a punt on the margins this weekend you might want to consider these facts:
* Only twice has the 1st Preliminary Final been decided by more than 10 points.
* The margin of 17 last year between the Broncos and Bulldogs is the largest winning margin in 8 years of the 1st Preliminary Final under the McIntyre System.
* Take the Cowboys or Eagles at 1-10 in the margins, as the average winning margin in the 1st Preliminary Final is only 8.88.
* In the 2nd Preliminary Final only three times has the margin been above 8, with the Eels 29 point losing margin in 2005 being the largest in the 8 years.
* The average winning margin in the second preliminary final is just 11.25.
* The two times that the minor premier have been beaten has resulted in margins of 16 and 29, meaning if your tipping the Eels to win, you could get great value out of a margin of 11-20 or 21+.

Margins over the years

Preliminary Final 1:
1999 - 2 (Eels lost to Storm)
2000 - 6 (Knights lost to Roosters)
2001 - 8 (Knights def Sharks)
2002 - 4 (Broncos lost to Roosters)
2003 - 10 (Roosters def Bulldogs)
2004 - 16 (Panthers lost to Bulldogs)
2005 - 8 (Dragons lost to Wests Tigers)
2006 - 17 (Bulldogs lost to Broncos)
Avg: 8.88

Preliminary Final 2:
1999 - 16 (Sharks lost to Dragons)
2000 - 6 (Broncos def Eels)
2001 - 8 (Eels def Broncos)
2002 - 6 (Warriors def Sharks)
2003 - 8 (Panthers def Warriors)
2004 - 1 (Roosters def Cowboys)
2005 - 29 (Eels lost to Cowboys)
2006 - 14 (Storm def Dragons)
Avg: 11

So after highlighting the statistics and trends, it seems the Cowboys (by 8) and Melbourne (by 6) are destined for the Grand Final. In saying this, these statistics do not take into account suspensions, and if Thurston misses the big clash the Cowboys may as well pack their end of season bags because no statistic will save them. Happy tipping!

Rleague.com