In the 14 full seasons since that 2006 win in Canberra we have played there 9 times. How many of those games should we have expected to win? In hindsight we can compare the teams at the end of a season to see which was stronger. Personally I think for-and-against is the best measure of a team's quality in a given year, and the difference between Parramatta and Canberra in the years we played them away has generally been stark:
2007 is the only year we were significantly stronger than them (our points differential compared to theirs was +222) and it is fair to say we underperformed in that particular game. But in the following eight games Canberra had a significantly better team (at least 199 points better over the year) half the time. Losing to the Raiders in those four games reflects nothing more than a lack of quality. Of the remaining four games we had a marginally better for-and-against (no better than +54 over the season) twice, while in the other two games Canberra were better by 22 points and 90 points:
2006 Eels +71 (Eels last win in Canberra)
2007 Eels +222
2011 Eels +47
2012 Raiders +252
2013 Raiders +224
2014 Eels +54
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2018 Raiders +199
2019 Raiders +90
So the only year we should have expected to win (in hindsight) was 2007. We should expect to have lost to a superior team in 2012, 2013, 2016 and 2018. The only games where the teams were even close to evenly matched were 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2019. But a game between two evenly matched teams should probably be won by the team with home ground advantage, especially a team like Canberra with fairly unique weather conditions at home. If you look at games played in Sydney over the same period, the Raiders have had a better points differential every year except 2007 and 2009 (both years we beat them at home).
Eels victories in bold:
2006 Eels +71
2007 Eels +222
2008 Raiders +159
2009 Eels +34
2010 Raiders +84
2015 Raiders +133
2016 Raiders +213
2017 Raiders +22
2019 Raiders +90
2020 Raiders +24
In a couple of those years (2008 and 2016) they had a significantly better points differential and we still beat them at home. Maybe the Raiders had a soft underbelly, or maybe it's not statistically significant. Either way, in those years where there was less than a try per game (+96 over the season) between the two teams, the Raiders won 4 from 5 in Canberra and we won 3 from 6 at home. Maybe the problem is our home ground isn't as much of an advantage as theirs. The fact the Raiders play in Sydney about ten times every year would support this. They are used to Sydney while the only team used to playing and training in Canberra is the Raiders.
