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ROUND 23 THE HOG's WINNERS WITH MARGINS - DON'T MISS OUT THIS WEEK!

THE HOG

Juniors
Messages
389
Hi Lucky Punters,

Please see below the Winners with Starts. I will send through my detailed report tonight.

Dogs + 0.5
Rabbits + 6.5
Manly + 4.5
Dragons + 5
Eels + 8.5
Tigers + 14
Broncos + 5.5
Knights + 10.5

3 weeks left, BOL!

THE HOG
 

SRB_SEA_EAGLE

Juniors
Messages
172
Thanks , Mr Hog.

ps - now i just need someone to clarify what the " start" means.

Is it by how much they think each team will win by ?
Or , is it ,after the hog's evaluation , the team mentioned as well as their
" advantage " over the other side ?
 

feeding frenzy

Juniors
Messages
942
Thats a good question Eagle.

As the Majority of those teams will be favourites that have a plus rating so i presume Hog thinks they win by that.

Then you have the knights and bunnies in which he has given them a + rating and they will be outsiders so maybe he means with the start.
 

THE HOG

Juniors
Messages
389
Boys I forget not everyone reads everything...I have posted this before, but to clarify.

What I am saying is how much that team will win by, so Rabbits by +6.5 menas they will win by +6.5. I do not care what the bookies come out with, there lines don't change my winners with margins. It's up to you to decide if the bookies starts are worth taking, heance getting in when they post the lines enables you to generally snap up some extra points with other professional punters..

Don't think, just ACT on these winners...

THE HOG
 
Messages
15,545
Cudos to you Hog. You have copped a bagging and I'll admit that I was the first to give it to you, but you are still here and still plugging away. Gambling is not an exact science, but your system is reasonably good and has stood up over the past few weeks. You had one shocker, but I think just about everyone had a shocker that week.

I have one suggestion for you that may improve your "column". In my experience, there is at least one upset thrown up every week. My suggestion is that you make your tips and then at the bottom, you make a suggestion as to who you think the greatest chance of an upset is in that particular week, oh and when I say upset, I don't mean the team coming 5th beating the team coming 2nd. I would suggest that you look at games like Eels v Warriors, Raiders v Dragons, Roosters v Sea Eagles, Sharks v Tigers this week and make an assessment from there. Doesn't have to be based on any formula, perhaps you could even just choose the game with the lowest Margin difference i.e. you would say in that lot that based on your Margins, the Roosters would be the biggest chance of an upset based on your margins.

Just a suggestion, you don't have to take it on board, but I reckon that punters would appreciate a little guidance in that area. I know that when most people ask me about their tipping comp, they are asking who I think the upset will be this week.

Good Luck and good punting.
 

feeding frenzy

Juniors
Messages
942
Boys I forget not everyone reads everything...I have posted this before, but to clarify.

What I am saying is how much that team will win by, so Rabbits by +6.5 menas they will win by +6.5. I do not care what the bookies come out with, there lines don't change my winners with margins. It's up to you to decide if the bookies starts are worth taking, heance getting in when they post the lines enables you to generally snap up some extra points with other professional punters..

Don't think, just ACT on these winners...

THE HOG


So why when you give your tips would you start by saying.

" Please see below the Winners with Starts. I will send through my detailed report tonight."

in that case wouldnt you give the team you think wil win by that margin a minus rating.

Maybe you could implement this next week would help clear things up a bit.
 

SRB_SEA_EAGLE

Juniors
Messages
172
Just got back from writing out the “head 2 head” and “starts” up the road at the tab……..I wish someone / anyone ,who has net access ( minus work proxy), would cut and paste the TAB odds on a Wednesday.

Anyways , for those like me who don’t have internet betting accounts and use the TAB…..

Souths 1.90 -0.5 = 1.92
G/coast 1.90 +0.5 = 1.88

Cowboys 1.70 -2.5 = 1.95
Bulldogs 2.10 +2.5 = 1.85

Manly 1.20 -12.5 = 1.90
Roosters 4.25 +12.5 = 1.90

Parra 1.20 -12.5 = 1.90
Warriors 4.25 +12.5 = 1.90

Raiders 2.65 +6.5 = 1.90
Dragons 1.45 -6.5 = 1.90

Sharks 3.40 +9.5 = 1.90
Tigers 1.30 -9.5 = 1.90

Brisbane 1.45 -6.5 = 1.90
Panthers 2.65 +6.5 = 1.90

Newcastle 1.90 +0.5 = 1.88
Storm 1.90 -0.5 = 1.92


ps - no margins available at about 12.15 today
 

THE HOG

Juniors
Messages
389
Here is the Round 23 game by game.

Last weeks HOG followers huffed and puffed and blew down the Bookies House.

7 from 8 off scratch, 6 from 8 at the line and 3 out of the 8 games within a half point of the actual game margin!

Come swill with me!

COWBOYS v. BULLDOGS.
A very close game to start this weekends round. Very slight advantages to the Bulldogs in both the Forwards and the Backs, mainly due to the more seasoned reliable first graders in the Doggies ranks. The Dairy Farmers of North Queensland have the home ground advantage and have the ability to put on plenty of points against teams and the Dogs will have to be at their very best defensively to keep the cream of the milkers team, Bowen and Thurston from topping them. A few question marks over the ability under pressure of the Cowboys outside backs leans us ever so slightly to the visitors.

The Ratings.....Bulldogs by 0.5. For the margins, Bulldogs and Cowboys 1-12.

RABBITS v. TITANS.
A very good record against the Titans in Sydney and a lot of confidence gained from the win over Manly last round points to the Rabbits getting the cash against the visiting Roller Coasters. A very good win last weekend and a firing backline just starting to believe in themselves, should be enough to see the Redfern Mob home. The Rabbits were liabilities at home earlier in the season but are averaging plenty of tries at ANZ now and even though there is no Asotasi, (I do not think that he has been setting the world on fire anyway) there is enough of a ratings advantage to suggest the Rabbits will win comfortably. One for Johnsy and Nanpig.

The Ratings.....Rabbits by 6.5. For the margins, Rabbits 1-12.

ROOSTERS v. MANLY.
The Roosters had a real hot go against the rampaging Tigers last weekend and landed a nice victory at the line for the HOG Followers. Manly have had no trouble ruffling the Chooks feathers at SFS in previous encounters but may not have enough points in them to rip the Roosters apart. Both sides match up fairly evenly all over the park and apart from a home ground advantage most of the stats favour the Pelican less Sea Gulls. The Chooks have nothing to lose and the enormous 12.5 start on offer the Roosters is the way to go in this game.

The Ratings.....Manly by 4.5. For the margins, Manly 1-12.

RAIDERS v DRAGONS.
The Raiders give the Dragons plenty to worry about every time they venture down to Bruce Stadium and this will be a very good test for the Dragons close to semi final time. The Dragons even without Poore Justin and Running Ronny Coote, still hold a significant rating advantage over the Raiders,( how do the Dragons fit that all in their salary trousers? ) Weyman who used to be the weightman ( The Moruya Chewer) when he was a bit green, will be keen to have a big one against his ol' mates, as will Big Bad Neville but the Greens pack are nothing if not game and on a freezing cold Saturday Night at they used to call it Bruce, CAMPese and the Tongue will keep the Bastards honest. Another game where it is best to take the big start being offered on the home side.

The Ratings.....Dragons by 5. For the margins, Dragons 1-12.

EELS v. WARRIORS.
A very good test for the Electric Eels. The Warriors have a Big , Big pack of forwards and this will test the undermanned Eels pack. The Warriors have not produced much on either side of the ditch this season but the Eels six are among the smallest in the comp and this may spur the under achieving Warriors to have a bit of a go against the old mentor. The Eels have been up for a while now and they still have an inexperienced six and seven but have enough ratings points in the bank to suggest that they will get the points against the Worriers but the 14 start being offered the Warriors is very very enticing, especially with all the try scorers in the team and the Eels suspect on line defence.

The Ratings.....Eels by 8.5. For the margins, Eels by 1-12.

SHARKS v. TIGERS.
Will Tim Sheens new half back Robert Lui, (Stephen's son), produce a happy ending to his half back problems, with the injury to the galant Gallant forcing Red Hot Moltzen Back to the fullback position? Answer, it does not matter! The Tigers will have to much in their tank for the guppies. The Sharks were brave again on Monday against the Broncos and played to their potential but unfortunately their potential is park footy at the moment. The Tigers have played very attractive footy over the last few rounds and if the Sharks were to get close in this game it would be a major surprise. The Tigers are too strong all over the park and have a great record against the Guppies at Guppy Park. The Sharks have a very competitive forward pack and they aim up week in, week out but they lack any class in the backline and this is where the Tigers will get their claws into the Gupps.

The Ratings.....Tigers by 14. For the margins, Tigers 13+.

BRONCOS v. PANTHERS.
A toss of the coin to which Bronco team runs out onto Suncorp. The Broncos were not impressive against the Sharkies on Monday Night but have classy players all over the Park. The Panthers have Lewis back and fitter for his hit out last week and the enigmatic 'Mount' Pritchard in the starting pack beside him in name but will it be in effort. If Franky was to get Cranky he has the ability to rip sides apart and his clash with the "Big Fish', Dave Taylor should be worth the price of admission itself. The Backs of the Broncos, with their representative experience, have a definate edge on the Penny's but the Penny's Pack, if Cranky fires, could upset the Broncos apple cart. A lot of ifs and butts ( not Sailors thankfully ) will decide this game but taking all the ifs and Wendalls out of the scenario the stats favour a home side victory.

The Ratings.....Broncos by 5.5. For the margins, Broncos 1-12.

KNIGHTS v. STORM.
Will Inglis destroy or galvanise the Storm? Will Smith ( no not the black actor ) destroy or galvanise the Knights? Will the Storm, storm the Knights castle, will the Knights pack put their bodies on the line to protect their home turf. This is the Holy Grail for Newcastle and they will have to show the fight of the Famous Black Knight to repay the supporters for the below par efforts of the previous jousts. The ratings point to the Knights having a comfortable win at home and Monday night in itself is a big leg up for the home side. There is not much in the ratings for the backs and pack but the big mobile bench for the Knights could cause havoc for the spluttering Storm if the Knights weather the intial onslaught. The Betting agencies are offering the homeside the start, I do not think that they will need it but take it anyway.

The Ratings.....Knights by 10.5. For the margins, Knights 1-12

Go get 'em Piglets!!!
 

blackandwhite

Juniors
Messages
246
Cudos to you Hog. You have copped a bagging and I'll admit that I was the first to give it to you, but you are still here and still plugging away.
I have one suggestion for you that may improve your "column". In my experience, there is at least one upset thrown up every week. QUOTE]



:? Yeah..I am Mr. Hogs friend now as well...he kinda grows on you!

There is always at least one upset..and I can narrow it down to a check list of 341:
The favorites backing up from Monday night football,favorites playing away,favorites that are not St.George, night games, day games, video ref....mix that all up and there is your upset.
 

3peat

Juniors
Messages
2
Cudos to you Hog. You have copped a bagging and I'll admit that I was the first to give it to you, but you are still here and still plugging away.
I have one suggestion for you that may improve your "column". In my experience, there is at least one upset thrown up every week. QUOTE]



:? Yeah..I am Mr. Hogs friend now as well...he kinda grows on you!

There is always at least one upset..and I can narrow it down to a check list of 341:
The favorites backing up from Monday night football,favorites playing away,favorites that are not St.George, night games, day games, video ref....mix that all up and there is your upset.

Love The Hog.
 

THE HOG

Juniors
Messages
389
There is always more Love when you pick 7 from 8.....I have learnt to roll with the bashings.....and I expect them when my formulae lets us down. On the flip side, I hope you are starting to see some consistency in my tips and results. This is where confidence builds and before you know it you are putting $200 into a 5 leg multi and paying off the credit cards.....it’s all about sticking with it and having a crack. With only 4 rounds left you will not be able to pick up easy cash like this until next March.

As I stated from the beginning, stick with my tips and you will make money, that is 100% guaranteed.

THE HOG
 

rabs

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
3,343
go hard hog, I'm sniffing some big bucks to be made this weekend :D
 

THE HOG

Juniors
Messages
389
Pulled this little ripper out today...

Selection: : WESTS TIGERS (-14.0) @ 2.10 Win Event: NRL, CRONULLA SHARKS vs WESTS TIGERS
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 14:04 Selection: : BRISBANE BRONCOS (-5.5) @ 2.14 Win Event: NRL, BRISBANE BRONCOS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 15:05 Selection: : WESTS TIGERS U20s (-8.5) @ 2.10 Win Event: NRL Toyota Cup, CRONULLA SHARKS U20s vs WESTS TIGERS U20s
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 11:45 Selection: : BRISBANE BRONCOS U20s (-16.5) @ 2.10 Win Event: NRL Toyota Cup, BRISBANE BRONCOS U20s vs PENRITH PANTHERS U20s
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 12:45 Combined Dividend: 19.819

Will be laying it all on the Knights!
 

rabs

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
3,343
Pulled this little ripper out today...

Selection: : WESTS TIGERS (-14.0) @ 2.10 Win Event: NRL, CRONULLA SHARKS vs WESTS TIGERS
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 14:04 Selection: : BRISBANE BRONCOS (-5.5) @ 2.14 Win Event: NRL, BRISBANE BRONCOS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 15:05 Selection: : WESTS TIGERS U20s (-8.5) @ 2.10 Win Event: NRL Toyota Cup, CRONULLA SHARKS U20s vs WESTS TIGERS U20s
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 11:45 Selection: : BRISBANE BRONCOS U20s (-16.5) @ 2.10 Win Event: NRL Toyota Cup, BRISBANE BRONCOS U20s vs PENRITH PANTHERS U20s
Market: Points, 16 August 2009 12:45 Combined Dividend: 19.819

Will be laying it all on the Knights!

are you mad Hog??? the Knights are G O N E hahahaha
 

Parra

Referee
Messages
24,900
He's not mad - he just used another ambiguous term. 'Laying' it on the Knights?

Just tell us the bet.
 

The Shark

Juniors
Messages
25
Hello all tipsters.
i have been having a few glorious weeks raping the TAB.
last weekend put in $600 on tigers to beat roosters by 6.5 and parra to win against newcastle with a start and got $600 profit.

this weekend i put in 600 on
chelsea to beat hull city. (drogba 90th min winner) very lucky
Dragons +12.5 start ( lucky again as score 24 -12)
Parra to beat NZW
TIgers to beat sharks over 6.5pts
paying 2.19 and i won $714
very very good weekend close but in the end sweet.
2 weekends profit of $1300.

with that i am pretty sure the storm are going to win tonight,
the reason being even without inglis they still have a lot of class and if you watched storm play cowboys last week inglis had a very quiet game and yet the storm won.
kinghts playin at home is one advantage for them but brian smith locked up in the shower room by the board of directors and some no name coach giving a 30 minute session on how to defeat former NRL champions while the knights are in a rut(based on the form of thier few last weeks) i think the storm have every chance here to win.
or give them a 12.5 start even if the knights put it out to them they wont beat the storm by that much. whack $2000 on that which is paying 1.21 and you get $400. safe but certain money.

good win hog on the multi you had there before.
 

THE HOG

Juniors
Messages
389
I am MAD....

To add fuel to the fire I have gone -

Knights Under 20's +14.5 into Knights 1 to 12....if I win this I will be placing 50% on Parra to win the Premiership @ 13's.

THE HOG
 
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