Bomber - #4 USF Bulls (captain)
749 words including title, excluding reference at bottom
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The Vicious Cycle
In Newcastle, the sky has fallen.
Despite boasting more than a few handy players, including a future immortal, the current New South Wales captain, and present and past Australian and Origin representatives, collectively they must have done some dastardly deeds in order to have this much bad luck in Season 2005.
12 losses from as many outings. Is there any sensible explanation for this current turn of events? Apart from the obvious reasons too much dropped ball, too many missed tackles it simply appears that Newcastles number was up. After making the finals in eight seasons out of nine between 1995 and 2003, the Football Gods decided to deliver the Steel City a big dose of karma.
For as long as league has been played in Australia, the performances of teams go in cycles, usually alternating between truly great eras and truly awful eras. Often this is the result of the combination of great players and great coaches, or the relative weakness of other teams in the competition. Sometimes teams appear to be simply unstoppable, but once their star fades, the fall to earth can be dramatic. St George won eleven consecutive premierships between 1956 and 1966; they only won two premierships between 1967 and 1979, and none since Malcolm Fraser was Prime Minister.
The Balmain Tigers qualified for the finals in seven seasons out of eight between 1983 and 1990, winning 127 of 206 (61%) games played, culminating in grand final appearances in 1989 and 1990. When Warren Ryan abruptly departed as coach after the 1990 season, he declared that all the juice had been sucked from the lemon, and he wasnt kidding. The Tigers never qualified for the finals in the years since then, winning 73 of 202 (36%) of games and, in 1994, their first wooden spoon since 1981.
Souths provide another outstanding example of the rise and fall in fortunes of rugby league teams. The men wearing myrtle and cardinal brought the premiership back to Redfern eleven times in the first twenty-five years (1908-1932), and precisely nothing in the next seventeen seasons (1933-1949). Another golden era in the 1950s five premierships in six seasons, winning 72% of their games was followed by the St George-induced drought of 1956-66. When the storm broke, it was South Sydney that rejoiced in the rain, winning four premierships in five seasons under the tutorage of Clive Churchill. South Sydney has not won a premiership and only qualified for the finals on seven occasions since their 1971 premiership. In fact, South Sydney have only won 75 of 309 games since Mario Fenech led his team off the Sydney Football Stadium after losing in the 1989 Preliminary Final to the Raiders.
Often, the rise and fall of teams are intrinsically linked to the appointment of coaches, which can provide the spark or inspiration for a golden era of finals and premiership success at the club. In that case, there can be no better example than the tenure of Jack Gibson at Parramatta. Gibson only coached Parramatta for three seasons, but what a great three years they were! The first three premierships for the Parramatta club are also the last time to date that a team has won three consecutive premierships. During the Gibson Era, the Eels won 61 of 84 games, or a 73% ratio. Gibsons successor John Monie, despite winning one premiership and losing another grand final by two points, was never going to measure up against that kind of record, despite winning 58% of games during his six seasons in the hot seat.
The glaringly obvious thing to remember is that there are no precedents when anticipating the rise and fall of teams in rugby league. There is no prescribed minimum length of team that a golden age for each team may last indeed, it is looking more and more likely that Penriths golden age in the new decade will last precisely two years. St George won eleven premierships, but none since 1979. Canterbury won two premierships before that year, and six since. The only rule is: there are no rules.
Of course, all of this is probably of no use to Newcastle supporters, who are still coming to terms with being winless in 2005. On paper, it simply appears that their first golden era is over, with another golden era on the way. Its just a pity that the two have to be separated by years of woe and misery. Such is the vicious cycle.
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Reference
http://nrl.has.it