lucablight
First Grade
- Messages
- 7,121
Yeah but it still happens. It’s the coach’s job to conjure up upsets. We’ve been on the receiving end eg 2001 grand final, 2005 grand final qualifier, 2017 preliminary final. We’ve dished it out a few times as well eg 2009 week 1 finals, 2009 grand final qualifier. Brad Arthur came close a few times but he never managed to win as a signifiIt happens so rarely anyway, it's not a valid data point. It's an outlier.
Not what my source is saying https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/ru...-of-beating-storm/2QEKV2LCZB3QVLLSRCGTVDD2MQ/No they were paying less than $3: https://www.aussportsbetting.com/data/historical-nrl-results-and-odds-data/
The warriors were given less of a chance against the Storm than we were given against the panthers in the 2022 grand final
Thanks for supporting my argument. Brad Arthur couldn’t get the team up as significant underdogs.The start of the season is a guessing game though, based on the results of the previous season. It doesn't take into account player development or decline.
Well it is a shame, and it hardly happened to us "on many occasions". The past decade has seen our finals odds thusly:
Year Opponent Eels price Result 2017 Storm $4.89 Lost 16-18 2017 Cowboys $1.38 Lost 16-24 2019 Broncos $1.46 Won 58-0 2019 Storm $3.36 Lost 0-32 2020 Storm $4.81 Lost 24-36 2020 Rabbitohs $3.57 Lost 24-38 2021 Knights $1.39 Won 28-20 2021 Panthers $4.33 Lost 6-8 2022 Panthers $3.17 Lost 8-27 2022 Raiders $1.49 Won 40-4 2022 Cowboys $2.22 Won 24-20 2022 Panthers $3.35 Lost 12-28
We have shat the bed once in that time. But also we have been underdogs by over $4 on two occasions and only lost by two points. This is an example of the opposition shitting the bed. With more luck we could've won those games. It's also worth remembering that this is only 12 games; a statistically insignificant sample. We were underdogs eight times ffs
