Rumours and Stuff

[King-Gutho94]

No but you seem to think that is my argument. I've made clear that I would only say the 2002 team had more big game experience (although they did lose some very experienced players after 2001). Why did they get worse results than the 2001 team? We all no doubt have our theories, but we couldn't argue them effectively without providing some statistical evidence.

From memory as i was 8 at the time but also going off David Middleton Annual our season imploded in the GF rematch against Newcastle at Parramatta stadium. We were 3rd at the time. But after that game Jamie lyon did his knee and missed the rest of the year while David Vaealiki got in a punch on with Tahu as it happened right in front of me it was a massive fight and got suspended for a long time.

Hodgson punctured his lung i think at origin as well which didn't help and missed a chunk of games.

 

[the phantom menace]

Mitch Rein is a back up. I don't see him as a 14 utility. Purely just a fill in if Rheed is absent

Like the departed Lussick, probably on minimal wage and won't see regular top 17 selection except for injuries, origin etc.

But good to have an experienced back-up to fill that gap in 2022!

 

[Gronk]

Are we the only sport that constantly seeks to change the rules ?

 

[TheRam]

I reckon in 2022 we go to another level. I really liked our attack in our last few games, saw plenty of passes from 6 to 7 to 1, lead to plenty of tries and created plenty of space and shape. Our defence on the edges was outstanding and with fergo gone will probably be even better. If Dunster, Dylan, Mahoney and Penisini improve and if our squad stay fit I don't see any reason we can't go all the way.

Inferior Coaching. And I am not picking on the head coach. He is a great man manager and recruiter, which is what all the best coaches have in their portfolio of talents.

It's the other two that needed upgrading. We blew that big time when we have had very strong evidence over the 8 years that this area needed a change. Now we have to rely on the pack doing all the heavy lifting again and hope that they are fit enough at the pointy end of the season to go up another notch to give it a shake.

All mighty big asks especially when we don't have an X factor player that can take the heat off the other players with out of the box moments that break the spirit of the opposition.

When you have a team like this, you need more luck then your opposition as we have witnessed the last couple of seasons. Not impossible, but much more difficult. The best we can hope for is that both Dylbags and Penisini have way more improvement in them attack wise and combined they both end up turning into our X player of sorts. It would also alleviate Gutho from having to do so much which by the end of the season he is walking around like a busted.

We currently have the players to go all the way. All I ask for this Xmas is for the coaches to know how to bring the best out of each of them.

 

[TheRam]

Also, I see Penrith, Souths, Manly and Storm go backwards. Penrith lose Momorovski, Capewell, Naden and Burton. Melbourne lose Addo-Carr, Hynes and Finucane. Souths lose Reynolds, Gagai, Benji, Su'a and Wayne Bennet is no longer coach. Regards to Manly I don't think Turbo can back up his 2021 form, he had an absolute blinder last year and absolutely carries their attack and their edge defence is average. If Turbo has a quiet year you'll probably see Manly have one too.

If the rules stay the same or close to it, he will have another great year, baring injury. These rules favour great attacking weapons like him.

Can you imagine if Inglis, Hayne or Semi played under these rules?

 

[Gazzamatta]

I spotted this on The Tigpies Forum.
Also mentioned that Ryan Carr was very close as an assistant but just missed out as mentioned earlier.

 

[Gronk]

I spotted this on The Tigpies Forum.
Also mentioned that Ryan Carr was very close as an assistant but just missed out as mentioned earlier.

View attachment 55334

He must have been way down the pecking order cos the most recent telecrap podcast said that Gardiner only got the gig after the Flanno appointment went south. The link with Cayless and Gardiner is that they both worked with Madge when he coached the NZ national team.

 

[Noise]

He must have been way down the pecking order cos the most recent telecrap podcast said that Gardiner only got the gig after the Flanno appointment went south. The link with Cayless and Gardiner is that they both worked with Madge when he coached the NZ national team.

Gardiner also worked with Madge when he was at South’s. He was Norths coach (South’s feeder team) and an assistant coach at South’s.

 

[Gronk]

 

[lucablight]

No but I certainly wouldn't need to use all of them. Some solid heuristics:

Kick metres
Forced drop outs
TAs
LBAs
Win percentage
Team points
Plus probably tackle effectiveness to measure how much of a liability he is in defence.

This ignores some data in favour of others, but it would paint a very good picture of who the top halves are. If say most NRL fans would agree that the final output matched their idea of the best halves in the game.

For teams it would take even less to predict finals results. Besides the obvious wins (ladder position), I'd say points differential and combined finals + Origin representation would be predictive of results in the finals. This would match most fans' predictions of where teams would finish relative to each other. You know opposition fans don't really rate our squad, don't you? No different to the media. We are the ones who misjudge the ability of our players, and we do so because we are emotionally invested in them. It's like how parents are the last to know when their kid is a piece of shit.

So you agree with me. There is no one magical stat you can use to compare players. You have to consider a variety of metrics and it most often can’t be quantified to give an objective conclusion.
I would agree that ladder position, points differential and finals+origin representation can be useful for predicting finals results but again it’s not a be all and end all as it doesn’t account for underachieving/overachieving teams and injuries. I would say recent form is also a useful predictor which you haven’t mentioned.
I also see your point about fans overrating their teams but I think we have enough supporting data to say that isn’t the case. No one was demanding that Will Smith or Jake Arthur be picked for origin (in fact I think you would say the fans were too harsh on them which goes against your point of us overrating everyone in an Eels jersey. All we wanted was to see a demonstration of the team playing to its potential. When they beat the Storm and matched it with the eventual premiers the knives were put away pretty quickly. I don’t see how the fans were unreasonable at all in that regard.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

So you agree with me. There is no one magical stat you can use to compare players.

No I think you can definitely compare players on a single statistic. If you don't believe me go and look at the stats page on NRL.com. It ranks players in numerical order for each statistic.

 

[lucablight]

No I think you can definitely compare players on a single statistic. If you don't believe me go and look at the stats page on NRL.com. It ranks players in numerical order for each statistic.

You can tell which player is superior overall by comparing them to another using one statistic?

 

[Soren Lorenson]

You can tell which player is superior overall by comparing them to another using one statistic?

Cock size. The end.

 

[hineyrulz]

If the rules stay the same or close to it, he will have another great year, baring injury. These rules favour great attacking weapons like him.

Can you imagine if Inglis, Hayne or Semi played under these rules?

Just watched our great win over the Saints in that famous semi in 2009. Watching it made me sad more than anything after knowing what happened to our club just after it and even sadder thinking where Hayne has ended up. He is the most talented footballer I’ve ever seen and sadly the biggest waste of talent. But imagine him at his best in V’Landy’s ball??? Scary to think to be honest.

 

[lucablight]

Just watched our great win over the Saints in that famous semi in 2009. Watching it made me sad more than anything after knowing what happened to our club just after it and even sadder thinking where Hayne has ended up. He is the most talented footballer I’ve ever seen and sadly the biggest waste of talent. But imagine him at his best in V’Landy’s ball??? Scary to think to be honest.

Guru taking that intercept to run the length of the field to seal the game is one of my all time favourite moments in our history.

 

[hineyrulz]

Guru taking that intercept to run the length of the field to seal the game is one of my all time favourite moments in our history.

And Haynes try to finish a perfect game, one of my fav ever wins. I wonder how many Origin players did we have compared to the Saints??

 

[Incorrect]

And Haynes try to finish a perfect game, one of my fav ever wins. I wonder how many Origin players did we have compared to the Saints??

Burt's field goal was the sealer. He couldn't have hit that any sweeter. Woulda been a 2 point field goal these days. I'm sure it was about 40 out yeah?

 

[hineyrulz]

Burt's field goal was the sealer. He couldn't have hit that any sweeter. Woulda been a 2 point field goal these days. I'm sure it was about 40 out yeah?

41m metres i think, the Saints fans piling out with 3 mins to go was also delicious.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

You can tell which player is superior overall by comparing them to another using one statistic?

Sometimes. And when you can't you incorporate other statistics into the analysis. I would describe it as an iterative process.

Like I said, once you get to the point where your model is predictive you've more or less nailed the analysis. It's about isolating signal from noise. The thing is that it's much easier to predict team outcomes than player outcomes for the fact that players are part of a team and not the other way around.

 

[hineyrulz]

I think we can all agree Rein is a decent pick up at the right price merkins???