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Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
68,164
And Haynes try to finish a perfect game, one of my fav ever wins. I wonder how many Origin players did we have compared to the Saints??
Looking at our results over the whole year plus the next couple tells you more about the relative strength of the two teams, not just looking at one game. The whole reason people think of 2009 as a fairy tale is because we were average but made it into a grand final. You don't see that every year, especially at our club.
 

lucablight

Bench
Messages
4,331
Sometimes. And when you can't you incorporate other statistics into the analysis. I would describe it as an iterative process.

Like I said, once you get to the point where your model is predictive you've more or less nailed the analysis. It's about isolating signal from noise. The thing is that it's much easier to predict team outcomes than player outcomes for the fact that players are part of a team and not the other way around.
What’s the specific statistic you can “sometimes” use to tell which player is superior?
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
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68,164
What’s the specific statistic you can “sometimes” use to tell which player is superior?
It depends on the players and what you're comparing them in. Like I said, it's more complicated than comparing teams since players have different purposes, whereas teams have the sole purpose of winning games.

In this way, turning a comparison of two teams into a comparison of two individual players is dishonest because you're no longer necessarily comparing apples with apples, but I think you knew that.
 

hineyrulz

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Messages
125,627
A more experienced option at least. Do you think experience has any value?
Steve Edge has host of Finals and big game experience wouldn't be picking him any time soon.


Experience is fine if you are still capable, but saying McCulloch was a better option than Mahoney is just laughable. Even at his best he was barely above a Matt Keating level toiler suited to the Wrestlemania of the last 15 years or so. V'Landy's ball had exposed him even further,
 

lucablight

Bench
Messages
4,331
It depends on the players and what you're comparing them in. Like I said, it's more complicated than comparing teams since players have different purposes, whereas teams have the sole purpose of winning games.

In this way, turning a comparison of two teams into a comparison of two individual players is dishonest because you're no longer necessarily comparing apples with apples, but I think you knew that.
A team is made up of players no? If you’re going to just compare teams by origin reps then you’re giving equal weight to every origin player that gets picked. Should Kyle Feldt getting picked be given the same amount of weight as Turbo despite both being origin players?
 

The Eel

Juniors
Messages
304
I think we can all agree Rein is a decent pick up at the right price merkins???
I am ok with the signing, given we need a back up for Reed, and he would probably only be on a pie and coke. Not a fan of signing older players at the tail end of their career, as we haven't got a great track record there, and I would like to see Roache come good, as he is younger, but If Mitch gives good service for one year I am fine with it. I just hope we don't lose Reed.
 

lucablight

Bench
Messages
4,331
I am ok with the signing, given we need a back up for Reed, and he would probably only be on a pie and coke. Not a fan of signing older players at the tail end of their career, as we haven't got a great track record there, and I would like to see Roache come good, as he is younger, but If Mitch gives good service for one year I am fine with it. I just hope we don't lose Reed.
Is Roache going to be here next season?
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
68,164
Steve Edge has host of Finals and big game experience wouldn't be picking him any time soon.


Experience is fine if you are still capable, but saying McCulloch was a better option than Mahoney is just laughable. Even at his best he was barely above a Matt Keating level toiler suited to the Wrestlemania of the last 15 years or so. V'Landy's ball had exposed him even further,
I disagree. McCullough was CamSmith-lite for a decade. His win rate proves that. A reliable and experienced first grader.
 

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
68,164
A team is made up of players no? If you’re going to just compare teams by origin reps then you’re giving equal weight to every origin player that gets picked. Should Kyle Feldt getting picked be given the same amount of weight as Turbo despite both being origin players?
No because when comparing teams a lot of the outliers are averaged out. When comparing individuals you could very well be comparing two outliers. It all comes out in the wash, but 'the wash' here refers to large samples. A team is a bigger sample than a single player.

I'm sure you would agree that cars can be compared with just a handful of metrics (specifically the ones important to the purchaser). But comparing a steering column to a fuel injector is far less straightforward, even though both are car parts. Stick them both into cars and they are suddenly less individually relevant, and the comparison becomes much simpler.
 

Incorrect

First Grade
Messages
7,951
I am ok with the signing, given we need a back up for Reed, and he would probably only be on a pie and coke. Not a fan of signing older players at the tail end of their career, as we haven't got a great track record there, and I would like to see Roache come good, as he is younger, but If Mitch gives good service for one year I am fine with it. I just hope we don't lose Reed.
I reckon we'd all like to see Roache succeed, and he might yet be the first choice backup to Rheed, but his injury history is horrendous so we can't bank on it
 

Avenger

Referee
Messages
27,580
I remember years ago St George were in a pickle because they couldn’t decide who was the better hooker. Cameron King or Mitch Rein. They chose Rein. They chose the right one. He went on to play over 200 first grade games whilst King was a journeyman at best.

Rein is a superb buy for us and I think people underestimate how valuable he is to a 30 man squad. Don’t forget the Titans chose him over Peats who most of us rated.
 

King-Gutho94

Juniors
Messages
923
Just watched our great win over the Saints in that famous semi in 2009. Watching it made me sad more than anything after knowing what happened to our club just after it and even sadder thinking where Hayne has ended up. He is the most talented footballer I’ve ever seen and sadly the biggest waste of talent. But imagine him at his best in V’Landy’s ball??? Scary to think to be honest.
I remember the week before i was copping so much shit from dragons fans at school. Being smartass saying what the score was the previous week like 30-0 and just kept repeating it all week.

Then the monday after the semi final win the bastards didnt bother turning up to school. Bloody sooks they were.

Unfortunately though they got the premiership a year later and we are still waiting.

Still was sweet though that 2 month run was incredible i dont recall a better atmosphere then the prelim against the dogs when they separated the fans up so the parra section was incredible like everyone was so happy and shocked i think we made the GF it was like a dream
 

hineyrulz

Post Whore
Messages
125,627
I disagree. McCullough was CamSmith-lite for a decade. His win rate proves that. A reliable and experienced first grader.
lol just lol, Farah was Cam Smith Lite . McCulloch reminded me of Matt Keating. Now it's back to win % to rate a player. I bet his win rate was higher than Farah's would you say he was a better footballer????
 

Incorrect

First Grade
Messages
7,951
I remember the week before i was copping so much shit from dragons fans at school. Being smartass saying what the score was the previous week like 30-0 and just kept repeating it all week.

Then the monday after the semi final win the bastards didnt bother turning up to school. Bloody sooks they were.

Unfortunately though they got the premiership a year later and we are still waiting.

Still was sweet though that 2 month run was incredible i dont recall a better atmosphere then the prelim against the dogs when they separated the fans up so the parra section was incredible like everyone was so happy and shocked i think we made the GF it was like a dream
It's one thing that bugs me incessantly, and that is that the Dragons won their "drought breaking premiership" without having to compete against a team that were systematically breaking the salary cap rules, but 12 months earlier, the same cheats stood in front of us on GF night and took the trophy ( since declared void despite Storm protestations).

If the Storm were caught in October 2010 instead of March 2010, the Dragons are likely still waiting for that drought breaking premiership like us... There deserves to be an asterisk against the Roosters and Dragons premiership wins in 2002 and 2010 respectively saying "Won Comp because whistle-blower alerted us to a team cheating and we took them out of the comp"....
 

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