I'm as big a pessimist as they come - you kind of have to be, being an Eels fan.
But you would think the law of averages would ensure we don't have a repeat of 2023.
In 2023, off the top of my head:
* we had our first choice hooker miss games, and eventually medically retire (whether or not you believe he was contributing to the team is another issue; his absence would have caused disruption in the side)
* we had Matterson, RCG, Lane, and Greig, all miss long stretches of games (the reasons are what they are)
* we lost our 5/8 for a decent chunk of time (again, the reason why is not the point here)
It's actually rather amazing to me, given all the disruption we faced, that we were ever in the hunt for a top 8 spot.
I don't think our bad luck can repeat itself to this extent in 2024.
We're not a Premiership-calibre team, imo, but we are definitely a top 8 side, and a thorn in most teams' plans.
For mine, our issues with our outside backs is our biggest question mark - Gutho is just Gutho, Sivo is a try-scoring machine, Penisini is a talent... And then we have as-yet unproven players to fill the remainder of the spots.
Sean Russell knows his way to the try line, and I actually like Simonsson, but our backs depth is weak.
I think if you broke down every side there is reason to beleive they can't win it.
Penrith and Brisbane are the obvious stand outs but here is a break down on my reasons why they can't win it. Obviously I think Penrith and Brisbane are both capable of winning it as I am of Parra.
Penrith - They've lost Spencer and Crighton. The hunger perhaps could die off after the 3 peat. Also had a great run with injuries the last few seasons. What's the chances of another year with many?
Brisbane - They've lost Herbie and Flegger. Two high class players. Reynolds seems a bit injury prone. Walsh is electric but sides are going to build game plans around stopping him. Also another side who had little injuries during the season.
STORM - Forward pack seems a bit average to me. Papenhauzen is a key player but how will he come back? The backline is solid but hardly deadly.
Souths - Forward pack is average. Cook will turn 33 ad passed his best. I also don't like their two smaller wingers with an average pack.
Sharks - Spine. I don't think Hynes is as great as they make out. His ball skills are silky but he isnt tough and an average kicking game. The rest in the spine are just good players. I wouldn't say great.
ROOSTERS - Teddy looks in decline. JWH is in decline. B.Smith didn't really cut it as an 80min hooker. Keary turns 32. Also looks a bit passed it. Big questions on the spine.
Dogs - Forward pack. Whole side still needs work.
Knights - Everything depends on Ponga. He is just a head knock away from a long stint out. His form to make the finals was Hayne like. Hard to repeat.
Manly - Forwards are just ok. Turbo Tom is arguably the best player in comp when fit. Most the time he isn't.
Warriors - Shaun Johnston had his best season in years. Will he back up? AFB is leaving and may take a bit of a step backwards.
Cowboys - I mean first they have to sort out why 2023 was such a disaster.
Raiders - SPINE. Not good enough here.
I won't bother going into the rest. Titans,Dragons,Dolphins,Tigers. I won't say any arent capable of making the 8 but if any made the grand final id be very suprised. Titans would be the best roughie due to forward pack, solid halves and some good exciting backs.
