We’re comparing results of 2 teams so the difference in wins and losses is across all the games both teams would’ve played. Each game is almost one of two results for each team, and across 46+ games I think you’ll agree there’s higher chance of out of the norm results (like tonight’s). I would think a definitively better performing team would therefore have more wins over a longer period, but that is not the case between us and Dragons.
The only period over which they have more wins is exactly two years (48 games). Coincidence that you plucked the very specific 46 game limit? The further you go back, the greater our performance relative to theirs.
Points differential again is going to have more potential for wild variances, so only consistent differences can gauge who’s better performing. I haven’t checked so tell me has our point differential been consistently better than Dragons?
Over one (and a bit) years: we have been 15 points better (although we have played an extra game this year)
Two years: 14 points worse
Three years: 198 better
Four years: 417 better
Five years: 668 better
Six years: 846 better
Seven years: 1054 better
Eight years: 831 better (this was 2018, the last time St George made the finals and we ran last and I do remember merkins talking up how well the Dragons were run and how they had turned the club around blah blah blah)
In almost contrast to what I said above I think the more recent results are going to have higher weighting but that still needs to be shown over an extended period to draw a determination. You can say that they have been worse performers but how confident are you that the differences in our performances would be consistent enough to suggest well outperform them any point in the future?
I'm pretty confident. They are a below average club whereas I think we are average. No doubt they will finish ahead of us again at some point (maybe this year) and so will the Tigers. But over the long term I expect us to outperform these clubs.
